Reserves edge up to $26.8b

SBP holdings rise $15m to $21.5b ECONOMIC EXPANSION: The MPC expects real GDP growth in the range of 3.5-4.5% during FY27. Risks from volatile global commodity prices amid renewed Middle East tensions and uncertain weather conditions, including evolving El Niño effects, could weigh on growth prospects. PHOTO:FILE Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $15 million during the week ended October 2, 2026, reaching $21.454 billion, according to data released by the central bank on Thursday. The country's total liquid foreign reserves stood at $26.797 billion, compared with $26.771 billion a week earlier. The increase in SBP-held reserves came despite a $17 million decline in the net foreign reserves held by commercial banks, which stood at $5.344 billion during the week under review. According to the SBP, the country's total liquid foreign reserves comprised $21.454 billion held by the central bank and $5.344 billion held by commercial banks. Furthermore, the Pakistani rupee extended its marginal gains and closed at 277.01 against the US dollar on Thursday, up Rs0.01 from Wednesday's close at 277.02. Meanwhile, gold prices in Pakistan edged higher on Thursday, recovering modestly after a sharp decline in the previous session, as international bullion prices also gained amid uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve's rate outlook and concerns over elevated US debt levels. According to rates shared by the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association, the price of gold increased by Rs600 per tola to Rs435,036. The price of 10-gram gold rose by Rs515 to Rs372,973. On Wednesday, gold had settled at Rs434,436 per tola, after declining by Rs3,100. In the international market, spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,122.36 per ounce by 12:20 pm EDT (1620 GMT), after touching its lowest level since August 5 on Wednesday, as per Reuters. A stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields had pressured bullion in the previous session, while investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve's future rate path. Minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed policymakers were divided over the rationale for a rate hike, adding to uncertainty over the timing of future monetary-policy moves. Market participants currently see a 21% probability of an October rate hike, while the probability of a December hike stands at 88%, according to market pricing. Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities, described the market as "completely sluggish", saying gold was struggling to establish a clear direction. He said bullion was trading within a relatively narrow range, with the market unable to determine whether the next major move would be upward or downward. Agar said downside pressure remained possible, but a move below the $4,000 level appeared unlikely unless major economic data or unexpected news triggered fresh selling. He expected a clearer trading range to emerge over the coming days as investors receive fresh economic signals. Meanwhile, silver prices in the domestic market declined by Rs120 per tola to Rs6,368.