How Israel's regional neighbors see its upcoming elections

CAIRO: Israel's upcoming elections are being followed closely by its regional neighbors, who are aware that any outcome will have ramifications far beyond the country's borders. In his Likud party's campaign launch this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeated his refrain that he 'has changed the face of the Middle East' and vowed to continue doing so. He has been unapologetic about keeping Israeli troops in neighboring Lebanon and Syria, while his ministers tout plans to displace Palestinians from the West Bank and Gaza, creating a refugee crisis for Jordan and Egypt and making a future Palestinian state impossible. Opinion polls show the October 27 elections are likely to be close. The bloc led by Netanyahu and his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies are squaring off against that of his main opponent, centrist Gadi Eisenkot. AFP correspondents around the region take a look at how different countries are following the contest: JORDAN While Netanyahu has stopped short of formally annexing the West Bank, observers say unofficial annexation is creeping in, as his government — the most right-wing in Israel's history — approves an unprecedented number of settlements. Government officials repeatedly call for the expulsion of over three million Palestinians across the Jordan River, posing 'an existential threat' to the Hashemite kingdom, according to Oraib Rantawi, founder of Amman's Al-Quds Center for Political Studies. At the UN on Tuesday, King Abdullah II said 'the Israeli government's expansionist appetite is now a regional threat.' 'In the medium and long term, Jordan and Israel are on a collision course,' Rantawi said, as right-wing politicians try to push responsibility for 'dealing with the Palestinian population' onto Amman. Jordan signed a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, and 'is maintaining a minimum level of political engagement' Rantawi said is unlikely to change, no matter the outcome. EGYPT Israel's other neighbor, most often threatened by what Israeli ministers describe as 'voluntary emigration,' has kept a 'cold peace' since it first recognized Israel in 1978. Cairo maintains extensive security collaboration, but ties have been increasingly strained as Egypt says it has had to resist repeated efforts to force more than two million Palestinians into its territory. The best-case scenario is 'a government that is less ideologically driven and more focused on security, which could help lower the temperature around Gaza, even without changing the fundamental Israeli position,' said former ambassador El-Sayed Shalaby. Asked by AFP, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said Egypt 'will deal with any government that is coming,' before blaming Netanyahu for obstructing the Trump ceasefire plan, which Egypt brokered. LEBANON Israel's attacks on and invasion of southern Lebanon have killed more than 4,300 people and left 329,000 displaced since March, while Beirut pursues gradual talks with Israel centered on the disarmament of Hezbollah. Parliament speaker Nabih Berri said this month that Israel 'is turning southern Lebanon, its people and their properties into a ballot box soaked in blood' ahead of the vote. 'We are not optimistic,' a former Lebanese minister and diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity. 'The style may change... perhaps Eisenkot has a less radical discourse, but on the ground, the policy will remain unchanged. It is the far right that remains in power.' In an interview with AFP, Lebanese president Joseph Aoun said the elections were an internal matter. 'But the question we want to ask the Israeli people, the State of Israel and all future governments is the following: do they want stability, security and no wars on their border, or not?' he said. SYRIA Since the December 2024 ousting of longtime ruler Bashar Assad, Israel has launched hundreds of strikes into Syria, sent troops into a UN-patrolled buffer zone on the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights and carried out regular incursions. 'For Damascus, the stakes are not whether the Israeli elections will completely change the rules of the game, but whether they will produce a government that is less inclined toward escalation and more willing to listen to Washington,' a Syrian diplomatic source told AFP. 'A more centrist government, or a right-wing government that does not revolve around Netanyahu... could be less inclined to make political capital out of escalation,' and work toward gradual security understandings.