BYU Cougars vs. Kansas State Wildcats prediction, pick for NCAAM on Saturday 1/3/25

Sean Barnard details his pick and prediction for the BYU Cougars vs. Kansas State Wildcats college basketball matchup. PROVO, UT - DECEMBER 16: AJ Dybantsa #3 of the Brigham Young Cougars drives to the basket under pressure from Jaion Pitt #15 of the Pacific Tigers during the second half of their game at the Marriott Center on December 16, 2025 in Provo, Utah. (Photo by) The BYU Cougars have been a must-watch team to start this college basketball season. They will look to continue this on Saturday in a matchup with the Kansas State Wildcats. Tip-off will take place at 1:30 p.m. ET, taking place at the Bramlage Coliseum in Kansas. Looking at the odds, BYU enters as a 7.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook with the game total set at 170.5. Kansas State holds +275 odds on the Moneyline to win outright. BYU vs. Kansas State preview BYU is off to a 12-1 start to the college basketball season. The Cougars are ranked 10th in both the AP and KenPom rankings. Their one loss came at the hands of UConn, in a narrow 86-84 defeat. The Cougars enter this matchup on a nine-game winning streak, which includes a ranked victory over Wisconsin. BYU is 7-6 against the spread and the under has cashed in eight of the 13 games thus far. Potential top-three NBA Pick AJ Dybansta leads the production with a Big-12 best 23.1 points per game, along with 7.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and a strong impact on the defensive end. Fourth-year standout Richie Saunders adds 18.6 points and 4.8 rebounds while shooting 40.5% on three-point attempts. Baylor transfer Robert Wright III is the lone other player averaging double-figures, adding 16.2 points and 5.3 assists per contest while shooting 45.3% from the perimeter. Kennard Davis Jr., Dawson Baker, Keba Keita, and Khadim Mboup each also make an impact in the rotation. As a team, BYU is producing 87.4 points per contest, which ranks 38th in the country. The Cougars rank 23rd in offensive rating, 24th in field goal percentage, 59th in three-point percentage, and 77th in rebounds per game. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 66.6 points per game, which is the 48th-best rate. BYU ranks 40th in defensive rating, 54th in opponent field goal percentage, and 104th in opponent three-point percentage. Kansas State enters the matchup with a 9-4 record. The Wildcats got off to a 5-0 start to the season, then dropped four consecutive games to Nebraska, Indiana, Bowling Green and Seton Hall, but they enter this game on a four-game winning streak. The Wildcats are 6-7 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in eight of their 13 games. PJ Haggerty headlines the production for Jerome Tang's squad, averaging 22.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game. Davis Castillo, Adbi Bashir Jr., Nate Johnson, and Khamari McGriff each also average double-digit points. Bashir Jr. is the team's leading perimeter shooter, connecting on 48% of his long-range shots while attempting 7.8 per game. Kansas State keeps a narrow rotation with these five playing the bulk of the minutes as no other player on the roster averages more than 17.6 minutes per contest. The Wildcats rank 27th in the country in scoring, generating 88.5 points per contest. They rank 63rd in offensive rating, 41st in field goal percentage, ninth in three-point percentage, and generate the 12th-most assists per game. Defensively, Kansas State is giving up 77.6 points per contest, which ranks 285th in the country. The team ranks 190th in defensive rating, 179th in opponent field goal percentage, and 189th in opponent three-point percentage allowed. BYU vs. Kansas State pick, best bet BYU has looked like one of the best teams in the country thus far, and Kansas State is a challenge that may not be able to stop the Cougars. Not only were the four losses concerning for Kansas State, but the Wildcats were beaten by Indiana by 17, lost to Bowling Green by 16, and fell 11 points short of Seton Hall. BYU is in a tier of talent above each of these teams and has won by double digits in eight of its 12 victories thus far. Three-point shooting can be the great equalizer, and Kansas State is sure to lean on this in its attack. A 39.9% three-point percentage as a team ranks ninth in the country, and the players are launching these long-range shots at the 74th-highest rate. This is an area where BYU is vulnerable, as the program ranks 252nd in the country in perimeter attempts allowed. But when you live by the three, you can die by the three… and Kansas State has shot 28.6% or worse from the perimeter in three of its past six games. BYU has more size and more top-end talent that will play a factor in this game. There is no solution on the Kansas State roster for the problems that AJ Dybantsa will cause. Expect his combination of size and athleticism to be a factor and for BYU to have the advantage in rebounding the basketball throughout. If Kansas State ends up in any sort of foul trouble, it will completely disrupt the narrow rotation, and there should be legitimate concern this is how things play out here. Kansas State will come out with a spark and keep this competitive as long as the shots are falling. But ultimately count on the top-end talent of BYU to win out and for the Cougars to cover the 7.5-point spread.