When is the safe shot the wrong shot?

A few months ago, I wrote about a costly moment in a club tournament in which I opted for the wrong shot in a pressure situation. Turns out I did the same thing this past weekend. The specifics were different, but one consistent thread was opting for a supposedly 'safer' shot that I didn't usually hit. The result was predictably disastrous, and it was even more regrettable given the course strategy expert Scott Fawcett had warned me against this type of decision months earlier.