Conor Orr's Preseason NFL Power Rankings: The Defending Champs Are No. 2

Welcome to the 2026 NFL power rankings: Week 1 edition. We have spent months setting up the season, giving our predictions and marking our territory like a bunch of aging Dachshunds. So, I'd like to take this time to simply say As we catapult ourselves into a post-AI world, there are still some people who choose to do what the author David Foster Wallace called a very challenging task: sitting with words and considering their meaning. Here at The MMQB we take immense pride in sitting with you (and now have an incredible Subtext group where you can ask us questions in real time, possibly allowing us the opportunity to add some depth to pieces like this one). As I enter my 16th season as either a beat writer or national NFL analyst, and my eighth season as a senior writer at , I'm filled with immense gratitude for you. Thanks for coming and thanks for staying. Now, let's kick some tires and light some fires. Beyond the top five, the NFL is strangely wide open this season. Here's how I think it shapes up as we approach opening kickoff: 1. Los Angeles Rams The great Tony Kornheiser of correctly noted that not a single team reaching +500 Super Bowl odds preseason has gone on to win the game. As Aaron Donald's return catapults Rams hype to another level, this turns into a case of both load management and the management of expectations just as much as it is another slate of 17-plus games where Sean McVay must be a brilliant play-caller and level-headed game manager. Who said pressure was a privilege? 2. Seattle Seahawks A typical case of reigning champion disrespect after another team—one that lost to the Seahawks in the NFC title game—had a shinier offseason. As I've said at many points this offseason, it's not what Seattle that we have to fear. It's the players who are still developing that didn't really play a part in the 2025 season that opponents have to worry about. 3. Houston Texans My prospective Super Bowl champion begins the season at No. 3. No team on this list is infallible, and Houston's skill-position injuries are mounting at a less-than-ideal time. I still think the Texans don't need much from the offense; just an efficient running game and a managerial attitude when the defense isn't destroying people. Too simplistic? Maybe, but OC Nick Caley called a better offense in 2025 than he was given credit for. 4. Denver Broncos Davis Webb was born to be an NFL play-caller, and pairing the ascending Bo Nix with a devoted QB whisperer and an enhanced set of offensive weapons should take the Broncos to the next level. The path is certainly more difficult, but this team is built the right way: through the lines and at the defensive back position. 5. Buffalo Bills Perpetually a team embodying the Atlas statue, the questions for the Bills are myriad. Can Josh Allen continue to play his style of football and get through a season relatively healthy? Will new head coach Joe Brady represent the right kind of vibe switch for Buffalo? Is Jim Leonhard's defense finally going to provide Allen with some teeth on the other side of the ball and lessen the burden on his back? This is a team that we can almost assuredly believe will be there at the end of the year, though getting over the hump remains the eternal obstacle. 6. Baltimore Ravens Your favorite ball knower's trendy offseason pick now that we've all collectively tired of our obsession with the Texans, Baltimore is trying to recreate its vintage formula with a more modern version of its gnarly defense. Lamar Jackson gets a big-play-hunting coordinator and—I think—will continue to dispel the notion that he thrives more out of structure. Jesse Minter, despite all the praise, remains underrated for how good a job he did in Los Angeles with that Chargers defense. We'll see if it all translates. 7. Cincinnati Bengals It wasn't until I cued up all of the Bengals' explosive runs from last year that it hit me: They can this. Dan Pitcher and Zac Taylor did a nice job last season of creating room for Chase Brown with simple five-man fronts. Adding in the offseason quest to increase under-center snaps will only aid in this pursuit. This Bengals team promises to be one of the most balanced since the surprising trip to the Super Bowl a few years ago. Will Joe Burrow—my MVP pick each of the past seasons—finally make us into believers again? 8. Detroit Lions Easy schedule + upgraded play-caller + a little bit more health and stability across the front seven = a nine win team from 2025 winning double-digit games in 2026. Certainly the secondary is a concern, but the way Detroit can deploy itself schematically, I'm less worried about the team getting gouged in the passing game. At the very least, the Lions can score enough to keep pace. 9. Jacksonville Jaguars We have to decide which of last year's teams that overtook the usual contenders were simply a flash in the pan and which teams made meaningful progress. I'm not ready to discount Liam Coen's ability as a play-caller and the Jaguars' system as a whole as some sort of fluke. This team is good despite its losses and now that the Brian Thomas Jr. role has been clarified and streamlined, the offense will have far fewer growing pains. 10. Los Angeles Chargers I want it on record one last time after saying it all offseason: I think we're going to be just as impressed—if not more—with the way Chris O'Leary calls this defense as we are the way Mike McDaniel calls the offense. Jesse Minter is a big loss for the Chargers, but O'Leary has been honing his skills as a play-caller and can keep this defense at an elite level, which matters in such a run-heavy system. 11. Philadelphia Eagles While this is total anecdotal evidence, seeing Jalen Hurts slip in so many of the fantasy drafts I've done shows that the veneer has certainly been stripped from the Eagles' 2024 championship team. However, I think of how we've collectively pigeonholed countless quarterbacks throughout history and wonder if Hurts, who just turned 28, may surprise us all this season. Like the post–Super Bowl Doug Pederson era, this can go two ways in Philadelphia. 12. New England Patriots The more I sit with the Patriots' season from last year, the more I like the idea that Drake Maye might take over the NFL in 2026. Touchdown-passing-leader good. Maybe even Josh Allen–rushing-touchdown good. He has the right makeup and the league is starving for a few more players to take a seat at the table of consistently elite. 13. Chicago Bears Ben Johnson wisely picked up on the narrative that this Bears team benefitted from some incredible luck in 2025. Unlike Nick Saban, he doesn't have to manufacture the idea that there is some skepticism about this team defensively and in replicating a healthy, big-play-producing offense from a year ago. Johnson's maniacal drive is the engine behind it all, which is a difficult force to bet against. Chicago begins the year in our top 14—an absolute playoff contender despite being in a division where all teams should finish above .500. 14. Dallas Cowboys Brian Schottenheimer has the chance of a lifetime. The offense is already supermaxxed and the defense, after a year of absolute embarrassment, has been upgraded at all corners. He has a receiver in George Pickens with hundreds of millions of dollars on the line and a reason to play his part in the orchestra, and a slew of veterans that can help steer a team built on perpetual hype into the playoffs. 15. Green Bay Packers The lingering uncertainty of Green Bay's running game looms large over what would otherwise be a promising season. I think that, like Jacksonville toward the end of last season, Green Bay will make sense of its talent rich offense and create something even more sustainably good. Many of the conditions are right for quintessential Jordan Love season, which could usher him into a cemented top-seven placement among NFL quarterbacks for the near future. 16. Kansas City Chiefs I've heard from Chiefs fans all season wondering how we can disrespect the GOAT and have the team missing the playoffs (at least in my projections, despite a totally fine nine-win season). Well, I'm eager to see what I missed. The offensive line remains a concern and the defense must replicate its success with a handful of new starters, having lost some serious foundational talent. Patrick Mahomes's greatness is unquestioned, but this season is where the Tom Brady comparisons can become apt. What happens when, for any other team, it's a rebuilding year? 17. San Francisco 49ers Injury concerns have really warped my perception of this team, and I feel like the 49ers will hover on the outer reaches of the top 15 until midseason. This has been one hell of an offseason for Kyle Shanahan & Co., weathering events both personal and physical. Now, hurl in a trip to Australia in which everyone is expecting the Rams to arrive hours before the game and dominate, and it may just take us some time to appreciate what the 49ers will eventually become this year: a playoff team. 18. Washington Commanders I see Washington as a possible 10-game winner. Some analysts I respect have this team finishing dead last in the NFC East. It's all on the table, especially with large-scale changes at the coordinator positions and a ton of new everyday starters. Jayden Daniels's health remains the biggest x-factor, though. In a David Blough system, we'll see him even more protected, we'll see play-action even more weaponized and—possibly—the full extent of his powers unleashed. There's a reason I nearly arm wrestled my fantasy comanager for the right to draft Terry McLaurin this year. 19. Minnesota Vikings The Vikings sitting at an 8.5 win total over/under was one of the most intriguing and, honestly, safest-looking bets I've seen all offseason. This was a nine-win team last year amid a disastrous campaign with multiple starting quarterbacks. Kyler Murray isn't perfect but he's stable, which is all Kevin O'Connell asked for this offseason. My question, as I outlined in this column, is whether the system will fit Murray, or whether both the star coach and quarterback will have to give a little to make it hum. 20. Carolina Panthers I look at the Panthers and see a 10-win football team. Yes, I know about the offensive tackle situation. Yes, I know that defenses making huge, splash free-agent signings don't typically work out. But the combination of Dave Canales, Ejiro Evero and Brad Idzik is a strong one, having consistently grinded to reshape one of the worst rosters in the NFL. The league always cruelly dispels our desire for neat, linear progression—ultimately why I have them at No. 20—but, man, do I want this staff to be rewarded for all its efforts. 21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers A candidate for the team we are probably the most wrong about, the Buccaneers have a tenured head coach, a top-12 quarterback and a slew of dynamic young players who were overshadowed by an end-of-season collapse and the loss of stalwart Mike Evans in the offseason. But what if the general manager, Jason Licht, who has been good for a long time, is still … you know … good? Maybe this Tampa Bay team is not dying but merely shedding its skin? 22. New Orleans Saints As one of the businesses's most ardent Spencer Rattler apologists, I'm resisting Tyler Shough hype and wondering if someone who is already entering the orbit of age 30 gets to have a major second-year bounce. It's a real question as to whether more lights will come on, or if that already happened for the team's 2025 second-round pick. Still, this is another team that is extraordinarily well-coached and possesses strength on the offensive line, which means all manner of success is possible. Part of me wishes I had the guts to pick the Saints to win the division. 23. Pittsburgh Steelers Hope is at its peak right now, so I don't think this is the time to wonder what happens if a Steelers season finally goes south. Like, really south. The Mike Tomlin streak of .500-or-better seasons hovers in such a fascinating way over this season. Was it one of the NFL's greatest accomplishments, or a testament to how good this roster was and how ultimately underachieving the Steelers have been during that time frame? Sitting at the wheel is a third-time head coach and Pittsburgh native, making the drama all the more textured. 24. Indianapolis Colts What happens when one of the league's best offenses over the first 10 weeks of last season limps into the following year after an end-of-campaign collapse and a ruinous health situation? Who knows. Like the rusted old Pontiac at the end of Stephen King's it may be the vehicle that surprises us all and gets us (most of the way) there. It may also break down, as we all fear it might. 25. Atlanta Falcons It is really, really difficult for me to get behind Tua Tagovailoa under center. Choosing an affordable contract over the best available backup will be a decision that—unless Atlanta to lose this year—will be one that haunts Kevin Stefanski in his debut season … at least until Michael Penix Jr. is ready to take his shot. 26. New York Giants If the Giants can manage to get teams into third-down situations consistently, this can be a top half of the NFL team. If the Giants cannot defend the run on opening downs, this is going to be a team that struggles mightily to reach .500. Still more hype than substance, the Giants are figuring out how to be a John Harbaugh team. I have no doubt it will happen. The question is … when? 27. Las Vegas Raiders Of these bottom-feeder teams, what we're looking for is both grit and progress. Of the teams that are most capable, I would say the Raiders lead that grouping for me because of the sheer volume of young players on the roster. We can say that last year's class was a dud, but maybe it wasn't drafted with the team's strengths at the time in mind. Klint Kubiak was hired to make all the pieces fit together. Declare me optimistic at the moment. 28. Cleveland Browns Now that the stench of Cleveland's QB announcement has worn off, we have to ask ourselves what will actually happen now that Todd Monken and Deshaun Watson will kick off the season together. This is a team that has no business being cheery. Gone is one of the best players in team history, gone also are locker room stalwarts like Wyatt Teller and Joel Bitonio. Filling the leadership vacuum is a player in Watson who continues to blame his lot in life on others. To this I say, . 29. New York Jets Perception does play a major part in these rankings. On one hand, I'm saying, And then saying, Each team had essentially the same tenor of offseason on that side of the ball. Now, we'll see if either can gel together in time. One thing is for sure: I believe this will be a Garrett Wilson season unlike any other, which is something to look forward to. 30. Arizona Cardinals Thought experiment: Put the Cardinals' roster on the Titans and put the Titans' roster on the Cardinals. If we do this, we're still talking about the Cardinals (with Titans players) being an absolute disaster and picking in the top three. The Titans (with the Cardinals players) may actually be a case for slightly more optimism. While Arizona doesn't have the sheer dominance of a player like Jeffery Simmons, the team has talent, albeit in the hardest division in the NFL and with the hardest schedule in the NFL. 31. Tennessee Titans Cam Ward could be a Brian Daboll kind of quarterback. I don't think the preseason is a time for us to but the Titans have young talent, a workable offensive line and a great defensive head coach who can immediately upgrade one of the worst units in the league from a season ago. It all comes down to the 2024 No. 1 pick, though. Ward has as much panache and arm talent as we've seen in the league. Now, it's time to see it working in a scheme that can protect Ward from his worst impulses and show off once and a while. 32. Miami Dolphins Never a place one wants to start, this Miami roster is a clear burn down. Otherwise, there's no way a team would fire its general manager in the middle of the season and mull keeping its head coach. That was to acknowledge what we all saw: a poorly stocked offensive line and a defensive line without teeth. Jeff Hafley has to do the hard work now. This article was originally published on www.si.com as Conor Orr's Preseason NFL Power Rankings: The Defending Champs Are No. 2.