Tinubu Edges Obi By 1,067 Votes In 69,110 Person Oxford Metro Poll

Nigeria's President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has narrowly edged Peter Obi in a new national online poll, defeating the Labour Party presidential candidate by just 1,067 responses in a contest involving 69,110 approved participants. The Oxford Metro Analytics National Trust Poll put Tinubu ahead with 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total, while Obi recorded 23,402 responses, or 33.86 per cent. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent. The razor thin 1.54 percentage point gap between Tinubu and Obi offers a snapshot of a highly competitive political landscape ahead of the 2027 general elections. Omoyele Sowore recorded 1,016 responses, or 1.47 per cent, while 638 participants said they did not trust any candidate yet. Seyi Makinde received 519 responses, Goodluck Jonathan 284, while 204 participants were undecided and 122 selected other candidates. Tinubu leads three zones The poll revealed a sharply fragmented political map, with Tinubu leading three of Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. He led the North West, North Central and South West, while Atiku dominated the North East and Obi controlled the South East and South South. In the North West, Tinubu secured 4,129 responses, representing 43.10 per cent of 9,579 participants. Atiku followed closely with 3,775 responses, or 39.41 per cent. Tinubu also led the North Central with 6,370 responses, representing 36.97 per cent of the zone's 17,228 participants. Obi came second with 5,364 responses, or 31.14 per cent. The President's strongest regional performance came from the South West, where he received 10,968 of 25,199 responses, representing 43.53 per cent. Obi followed with 7,788 responses, or 30.91 per cent. Obi dominates South East Obi recorded his strongest regional performance in the South East, where he secured 5,796 of 9,061 responses, representing 63.97 per cent. Atiku came second with 2,550 responses. Obi also led the South South, receiving 2,389 of 5,760 responses, or 41.48 per cent. Tinubu followed with 1,785, while Atiku received 1,433. Atiku's strongest regional showing came in the North East, where he secured 1,235 of 2,227 responses, representing 55.46 per cent. Tinubu recorded 523 responses, while Obi received 452. Tinubu wins 21 reporting areas The state level results showed an even more competitive picture. Tinubu led in 21 of the 37 state and Federal Capital Territory reporting areas, while Obi and Atiku each led in eight. Tinubu's leading states included Benue, Borno, Delta, Ekiti, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Zamfara and the FCT. His biggest state level haul came from Lagos, where he received 9,265 of 21,956 responses, representing 42.20 per cent. Obi's strongest performances came largely from the South East. He received 582 of 585 responses in Ebonyi, 247 of 251 in Anambra and 569 of 666 in Abia. He also led in Enugu and Imo. Atiku, meanwhile, recorded overwhelming leads in Kebbi and Nassarawa, securing 661 of 662 responses in Kebbi and 590 of 599 in Nassarawa. Kogi, FCT, Rivers produce nail biting contests Three reporting areas produced particularly close contests. Kogi recorded the tightest result of the poll, with Tinubu receiving 39 responses against Atiku's 38, a difference of just one response. In the FCT, Tinubu secured 5,599 responses against Obi's 5,278, giving the President a margin of 321 responses, or 2.05 percentage points. Rivers was another closely fought contest, with Tinubu receiving 975 responses against Obi's 892. Atiku came third with 568. Lagos, FCT dominate participation The national figures, however, were shaped significantly by the uneven distribution of participants. Lagos accounted for 21,956 responses, while the FCT contributed another 15,666. Together, they represented more than half of the national dataset. At the other end of the scale, Taraba recorded just 20 responses, while Zamfara had 57, Gombe 58 and Yobe 59. Oxford Metro Analytics therefore cautioned that percentages from states with very small response totals should be interpreted carefully. The organisation described the exercise as an open online public pulse poll rather than a scientific probability survey. Participation was voluntary and self selected, with no demographic, population or projected turnout weighting applied. The platform used duplicate controls, privacy protected hashed identifiers, device and browser signals, server side uniqueness locks, approval statuses and fraud flagging tools to reduce repeat or suspicious submissions. However, Oxford Metro Analytics acknowledged that these measures cannot make an open online poll representative of Nigeria's entire electorate. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://independent.ng/tinubu-edges-obi-by-1067-votes-in-69110-person-oxford-metro-poll/&ved=2ahUKEwiD9_must-WAxWrQEEAHSc2PXAQFnoECCYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0GZdCCcCfJLZd4wo072JPR