Ensuing conflicts: emerging economic and security milieu

. The writer is a retired Major General and a former ambassador The world is currently mired in at least 65 active conflicts, the highest number recorded post-WWII. Of these, 9 are interstate while the remaining 57 are intra-state. However, the US-Iran confrontation remains the most significant given its widespread economic impact. The Houthis capturing the southern coast of Yemen along the Red Sea has introduced a new dimension to this geopolitical imbroglio. To top it all off, President Trump's refusal of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's requests to conduct direct airstrikes - coupled with Houthi assurances that they would not target US and Israeli vessels - has caught the global community by surprise, most notably Washington's long-standing ally, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Connecting these developments to Somaliland and its recognition by Israel in December 2025 and UAE's reported intent to establish a military base there make it a complex maze of geostrategy. Is it a complementary effort by Iran to counter alternative oil supply route of KSA? Or is it a US-Israel tit-for-tat endeavour to pressurise KSA to join Abraham Accords? Nonetheless, it implies that Bab el Mandeb and Red Sea maritime route can be controlled any time by Houthis and Somaliland, albeit with external support. One must acknowledge that President Trump is actively implementing a distinct strategic vision for the United States. Geopolitical analysts widely deduced at the outset of the confrontation with Iran that Washington's efforts center around critical geopolitical levers: controlling oil and vital mineral reserves, dominating oceanic chokepoints, safeguarding the petrodollar and carving out a new regional security architecture anchored by the Abraham Accords and the MAGA doctrine. Securing a hold on Venezuelan oil, advancing influence over Latin American and African energy reserves and finalising the US-Denmark-Greenland security agreement are all interconnected tactics. In Greenland - where melting ice is carving out new maritime pathways - securing territory is vital for establishing the space-based "Golden Dome" missile defence network and blocking access to its vast natural wealth from Russia and China. Ultimately, these maneuvers serve as the operational means to achieve the ultimate ends of his global strategy. Let there be no mistake that all these conflicts have the least to do with religion or ideology; rather, they are part of an economic contestation including trade, control of resources, sea and land access, and the war economy. Interestingly, as of now, the largest oil- and gas-producing and exporting country is the US. Despite the war, Iran earns billions of dollars from oil sales, and Russian gas passes through Ukraine, for which Ukraine receives royalties. The other element of the war economy is who benefits the most from the prolongation of the conflict(s) and restricted oil flows? The chief beneficiaries are oil-producing countries, insurance & shipping companies, the black market and military-industrial complexes. Israel has been intentionally kept out of this phase of the war, affording it the opportunity to regroup, reequip and rebuild in order to continue with its expansionist policy and establish itself as a dominant regional power. The systemic genocide of Palestinians persists in this moral and legal vacuum. In this overarching scenario, the abdication of responsibility by the US to oversee a "rules-based world order" engenders chaos, anarchy and a heightened sense of insecurity. Consequently, smaller and middle powers are building interest-based alliances to secure their respective interests while hedging their positions between rival blocs. China's speedy rise through win-win economic cooperation remains the primary focus of President Trump's MAGA doctrine, which revolves around imperialist expansion to enhance the US sphere of influence, slow down American decline and scuttle China's rise. The recent meeting between President Xi and President Trump at the White House may not end their contestation, but it could help keep it non-kinetic for now. The Iran-USA war is likely to continue until both sides lower their negotiating demands. Iran is not likely to settle for less than royalties for the Strait of Hormuz, similar to the Suez Canal, an assured cessation of hostilities, the lifting of sanctions, and integration into the world economic system. The Houthis may follow this lead to come to terms with Yemen and KSA in a somewhat similar manner. The long-term solution to the US-Iran, Houthis-Yemen-KSA, and Israel's access challenges resides in diplomacy and politics, not in the use of the military instrument. Pakistan's brokering of the ceasefire, the strengthening of Pak-KSA bilateral relations, and the subsequent trilateral joint defence agreement including Türkiye - along with the continued improvement in our relations with all major and middle powers - are manifestations of this fact. Pakistan must continue with its efforts for longer-lasting regional peace by bringing the US and Iran back to the table, helping effect a ceasefire and forging a long-term solution to the Yemen-Houthi-KSA issue. At the same time, this newfound relevance and these friendships must be translated into B2B and P2P long-term partnerships to construct a complex interdependence built on an edifice of intertwined destinies for sustained good relations with all, especially immediate neighbours. The time-tested and trusted Pak-China bond must be cemented further.