Chile: Aurora shows that a difference of just 0.7% in the bids could have changed the outcome of last year's power supply tenders

This is an automated translation of the original release published in Spanish. PRESS RELEASE from Aurora Energy Research September 7, 2026 SANTIAGO (AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH)— A detailed analysis by Aurora Energy Research shows that the results of the last three regulated supply auctions awarded in Chile have been decided by extremely tight margins, processes in which the same player was the successful bidder. In the specific case of the 2025/1 auction, a flat reduction of just 0.7% in the bids of the other participants would have been enough to change the winner. The analysis was carried out with the new quantitative modeling and analysis product 'Regulated PPA Market Insights', which Aurora Energy Research has launched on the market ahead of the upcoming 2026/1 auction, which is currently underway. Among the main findings of the analysis of the latest tenders, it stands out that competition can be defined by details of price, volume, and indexation. Aurora's analysis of tender 2025/1 shows that small adjustments in price, volumetric flexibility, or the indexation structure could have changed the position of several bids. In one of the zones, the available volume was exhausted early and ended up being the constraint that defined the outcome of the process. On the other hand, the analysis concludes that the risk of utilization remains material and is not homogeneous. The use of regulated contracts fell from 92% in 2015 to 58% in 2022, with significant differences between zones and time blocks. Aurora estimates that, for a reference contract, low utilization represented around 20% of the PPA value. The 'Regulated PPA Market Insights' product incorporates projections of regulated demand at the nodal and block level to identify where this risk persists and to value it within each offer. Furthermore, the analysis shows that nodal exposure requires going beyond an average assessment. The modulation factors cover only part of the differences between the supply node and the withdrawal node, and do not fully reflect the intraday dynamics, particularly during solar hours. Therefore, projections of nodal prices, congestion, and transmission risk are needed to assess that exposure over the life of the contract. Supply tenders are competitive processes that are carried out regularly and are organized by the National Energy Commission (CNE). The ongoing 2026/1 tender includes 2.835 GWh/year of supply, distributed across four zones and two time blocks, with 15-year contracts that begin in 2029 and 2030. Aurora Energy Research's 'Regulated PPA Market Insights' product combines historical demand and utilization data, contract economics assessment, demand and price scenarios, competitor analysis, and a portfolio-based simulation tool. This makes it possible to evaluate offer profiles, likelihood of award, and the main sensitivities faced by participants before the auction. Raúl Urtubia, Research Product Manager, Aurora Energy Research comments: 'The fact that the same winner has been awarded the latest supply tender processes may give the impression that the result is predetermined. But the data show the opposite: competition is very tight and the difference between winning or not can depend on a fraction of the price, on how the volume is allocated between zones, or on the indexation structure. Our Regulated PPA Market Insights product provides a quantitative basis for understanding those risks and turning them into a more informed bidding strategy that takes advantage of the opportunities that have not yet been seized in the market.' The authors of the analysis will present their conclusions in the webinar 'Chile's Regulated PPA Tenders: Market Outlook & The Key Variables for Participation', which will be held from Santiago on September 8, 2026, at 10:00 (Chile time, GMT-3). Here is the link: Webinar Registration - Zoom. ABOUT AURORA ENERGY RESEARCH Founded in 2013, Aurora Energy Research is a leading global provider of energy market forecasts and analysis for critical investment and financing decisions for more than 1,000 clients. Headquartered in Oxford, we operate from 18 offices worldwide covering Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia. Our comprehensive services include market outlook packages for the energy industry, advisory services, and innovative software solutions. We foster diversity with a team of more than 1,000 experts with experience in energy, finance, and consulting, offering unparalleled knowledge and skills in power, renewables, storage, hydrogen, carbon, and fossil commodities. Our mission is to facilitate the global energy transition through widely trusted quantitative analysis and high-quality decision-making support. AURORAER.COM