Ohio State updated remaining game-by-game ESPN predictions after Wek 1

Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and in fact, we get into it ourselves as well when the time comes, and we will throughout the 2026 Ohio State and college football season. But if you've followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN Matchup Predictor says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule every week. The ESPN computers always adjust things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time. Now that Week 1 is in the books, the computer model ESPN uses has some real, live data to go by, and it's always interesting to see how things shift from where they were at the start of the season. This year's schedule is a daunting one, with road contests at Texas, Indiana, Iowa, and USC, and home games vs. Oregon and Michigan. Here's what ESPN's Matchup Predictor says for a game-by-game prediction of the remainder of the Ohio State football schedule for the 2026 season after one week and how it's changed from the start. We include completed games going forward into the projected record for the Buckeyes. Sept. 5 vs. Ball State Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%) Actual Result | Ohio State won 56-3 All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0 Sept. 12 at Texas Longhorns Location | Darryl K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium (Austin, Texas) Predicted winner | Texas Buckeyes win probability | 40.1% (down from 46.3%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-2 Sept. 19 vs. Kent State Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 99.0% (no change) All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-0 Sept. 26 vs. Illinois Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 96.3% (up from 95.4%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 69-30-4 Oct. 3 at Iowa Location | Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, Iowa) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 88.7% (up from 87.6%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 48-15-3 Oct. 10 vs. Maryland Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 97.4% (down from 97.6%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 9-0 Oct. 17 at Indiana Location | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, Indiana) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 61.3% (up from 60.8%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 80-13-5 Oct. 31 at USC Location | Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, California) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 76.7% (up from 75.0%) All-time series | USC leads 13-10-1 Nov. 7 vs. Oregon Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 80.6% (up from 71.6%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-2 Nov. 14 vs. Northwestern Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 97.5% (up from 97.4%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 66-14-1 Nov. 21 at Nebraska Location | Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, Nebraska) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 88.0% (down from 89.4%) All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-1 Nov. 28 vs. Michigan Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio) Predicted winner | Ohio State Buckeyes win probability | 92.3% (up from 86.1%) All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6 Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.