College football overreactions we're buying and selling after Week 1: USC is back

College football has a way of playing tricks on us. There's so much turnover year over year, and we spend so long waiting for games to start, that it can be all too easy to jump to conclusions after just one full weekend. (Just cast your mind back to last year, when eventual national champions Indiana struggled at home against Old Dominion and Florida State looked like Playoff contenders in a home win over Alabama.) Week 1 of the 2026 campaign certainly provided plenty of fodder for overreactions, from Michigan's Hail Mary win over Western Michigan to LSU atomizing Clemson. But what's for real, and what will make us feel awfully silly looking back in a few months' time? That's what we're here to figure out. USC is going to the College Football Playoff — and will win at least one game Verdict: Buy Scoring points hasn't really been the problem for Lincoln Riley during his time at USC. Preventing them, as well as baffling failures in crunch-time execution, is the reason he entered his fifth season in Los Angeles with just one season of double-digit wins, zero CFP appearances and plenty of rumors about being on the hot seat. Which is why the Trojans' start to 2026 should raise some eyebrows. Don't be fooled by the 26 points and 336 yards San Jose State put up in Week 0; those numbers were at three and 158, respectively, before the Spartans put up three scoring drives in garbage time with the game already well out of hand. And USC followed that up by completely erasing Fresno State in a shutout on Friday night, allowing just 2.6 yards per play. Of course, caveats about the quality of competition apply. But SC's defense has looked more physical than it has at any other point under Riley's tenure, and it's done so while still working key pieces like lineman Jahkeem Stewart back from offseason injuries. We know that Jayden Maiava and a loaded skill-position corps are going to put up fireworks; if they finally have even a passable defense, there's no reason this team can't make serious noise. Bryce Underwood won't finish the season as Michigan's starter Western Michigan v Michigan | Gregory Shamus/GettyImages Verdict: Sell This is less of an endorsement of Underwood than a reflection of Michigan's current reality. Make no mistake: The former No. 1 overall recruit was ugly during Saturday's miraculous escape against Western Michigan, showing little to no growth as a passer against a defense that, while certainly solid by MAC standards, shouldn't have posed a serious problem. He was locking onto reads, leaving the pocket too early, turfing easy throws and generally doing all the stuff that made him such a frustrating watch as a true freshman. The fact that a recruit of his pedigree has apparently made zero progress from year one to year two is alarming, to say the least. But it's also worth noting that this was only one week, and everyone involved is still learning new OC Jason Beck's scheme. I don't blame Michigan fans for panicking right now, especially with Oklahoma's defense coming to town on Saturday, but there's at least some chance that things get better with more reps. And more importantly: What, exactly, do the Wolverines have to gain from benching the guy they paid eight figures to pry away from LSU? The QBs behind him are Group of 6 journeyman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, a former three-star recruit in Chase Herbstreit and a pair of true freshmen in Tommy Carr and Brady Smigiel. Carr was a highly sought-after recruit, but he was also in high school just a few months ago; is Kyle Whittingham really willing to throw him behind an offensive line that struggled so mightily against WMU? And are the school's power brokers really willing to bail on their investment so soon? Oregon is in trouble Verdict: Buy Granted, "trouble" in this context is relative. Dan Lanning's Ducks still have one of the most proven rosters and one of the highest floors in the country. But after so many years of falling short, the bar in Eugene has been set at national title game or bust — and Oregon's Week 1 nail-biter against Boise State did not inspire a ton of confidence in that regard. Yes, the Ducks put up nearly 500 yards of offense and held Boise to just 4.2 yards per play. Giving up three passing TDs to Maddux Madsen is rough work, though, and beyond that, it was a little bit concerning just how non-disruptive such an ostensibly star-studded defense was in terms of backfield penetration and havoc plays. Those are the same things that have undone Lanning's squad in big spots over the past couple of years, and based on Week 1, I have a hard time seeing things going differently come January. Miami has the best offense in the country Miami v Stanford | Ezra Shaw/GettyImages Verdict: Sell ... for now The numbers are downright eye-watering: Miami dropped 549 yards and over eight yards per play on Stanford on Friday night, and they did so in just three real quarters of action. Malachi Toney was toasting defensive backs all night, while Darian Mensah was proving more than worth the NIL investment. But seriously, guys, we need to pump the brakes here a bit. For starters, this performance came against a Stanford team that nearly lost to Hawaii in Week 0 and will almost certainly be one of the worst — if not the worst — power-conference teams in the country. First-year Cardinal DC Kris Richard is calling plays in college for the first time after a career in the NFL, and he clearly is having a hard time adjusting to the talent disparity at this level based on how often he left Toney and Miami's other WRs in man coverage. The Canes won't have it that easy in just about every other game on their schedule. It's also worth noting that this rebuilt offensive line ... couldn't really run the ball. Last year's Playoff hero Mark Fletcher Jr. managed just 40 yards on 13 carries against a defensive front that should have been overmatched. And there's still plenty we don't know about Mensah's big-game bonafides, for all his success last year at Duke. Miami will score a ton of points this year, but don't get carried away just yet. Four coaches have already lost their jobs Verdict: Buy Let's just take these one by one. It already felt like the second Greg Schiano era at Rutgers had about run its course even before the Scarlet Knights suffered one of the worst losses in recent college football history, getting punked at home by a UMass squad that went winless last year and hadn't beaten a power-conference team since moving to FBS in 2012. era at Rutgers had about run its course even before the Scarlet Knights suffered one of the worst losses in recent college football history, getting punked at home by a UMass squad that went winless last year and hadn't beaten a power-conference team since moving to FBS in 2012. Dave Aranda entered the year with arguably the hottest seat in the country, and any chance of a true breakthrough probably went out the window when the Bears' two-point conversion attempt at the gun fell inches short against Auburn. With a closing stretch that includes road trips to BYU and Houston sandwiched around a home date with Texas Tech, it's hard to see this Baylor team winning more than six games or so; is that enough, given the relative lack of momentum here? entered the year with arguably the hottest seat in the country, and any chance of a true breakthrough probably went out the window when the Bears' two-point conversion attempt at the gun fell inches short against Auburn. With a closing stretch that includes road trips to BYU and Houston sandwiched around a home date with Texas Tech, it's hard to see this Baylor team winning more than six games or so; is that enough, given the relative lack of momentum here? Mike Norvell only avoided getting the axe last year because of his monstrous buyout, and so far this season his team has shown zero improvement at quarterback or along both lines of scrimmage in a closer-than-it-should've-been win over New Mexico State and a home loss to SMU. This simply does not look like a nationally competitive roster, which is a real indictment for a coach at Florida State. only avoided getting the axe last year because of his monstrous buyout, and so far this season his team has shown zero improvement at quarterback or along both lines of scrimmage in a closer-than-it-should've-been win over New Mexico State and a home loss to SMU. This simply does not look like a nationally competitive roster, which is a real indictment for a coach at Florida State. Dabo Swinney ... well, you all saw what happened at LSU on Saturday night. Of course it's only Week 1, and there's still a chance for any of the four to turn things around and save their skins. But this weekend brought very little evidence that any of these teams are actually good enough to win in a way that would get boosters and the administration back on board; Norvell and Swinney just keep on trending down, while Schiano has lost the fan base. The best bet to prove this wrong is probably Aranda, but can you really trust DJ Lagway? Texas Tech won't win the Big 12 Abilene Christian v Texas Tech | Josh Hedges/GettyImages Verdict: Sell One of the most low-key surprising results of the weekend came in Lubbock, where a Texas Tech team with national title aspirations had to slog through a 33-10 win over FCS Abilene Christian. Will Hammond and a brand-new receiving corps was efficient but struggled to push the ball vertically, while the Red Raiders also couldn't really impose their will on the ground. The defense was workmanlike, but this hardly looked like a team dynamic enough to run roughshod through its conference the way it did last year. Couple that with more impressive romps from BYU, Kansas State and Utah, plus a dangerous Houston squad, and maybe we were all a little too eager to declare the Big 12 race over before it started? That's probably true; I think Tech will face much stiffer competition on its way to conference championship week than it did in 2025. But the questions about this team, particularly on offense, are very real, especially ahead of a tricky road trip to Oregon State in Week 2 and a home date with Houston in Week 3. I still think this is the deepest and most balanced roster in the league, and that should win out. But don't be surprised if Cody Campbell starts feeling like maybe he's not getting his money's worth. Add us as a preferred source on Google