Can The Market Find a Fairway?

Welcome in to another iteration of The Weekly Selection, where I present my thoughts on the market, where its headed, and why.Our work is cut out for us this week, with not much change from last in the indexes, but some important improvements in key themes. As we know, not every day, week, month can be a traders dream, but it is still important to be in the chair to note when improvements in the environment are made. In addition to this weeks commentary, I wanted to showcase a bit of data, and more specifically, the performance of the research articles that myself and Dan release in early 2024. For those who don't remember or were not around, they were found in the SEBS Research section on my Substack.Here were the top 10 positions: Of the 33 positions, bought from the date the articles were released, the performance of the book was 50% from then to now, beating the market by a modest 13%. This does not consider the active management of the positions, which has found myself greater performance, but still serves as a nice note to see that even if we ignored technical analysis, the ideas still beat the market. Ok, back to the meat, or lack there of in the indexes. Taking a look here, we can see that there is a primary range from this spring to August, and now a secondary range higher after a breakout. This is a really clean look for a move higher, and more specifically creating a tradeable environment for momentum and swing traders. If we look at QQQ, we see the same idea but further off highs, indicating that tech is lagging. The end of moves is generally the strongest, and if we expect tech to rotate back in, its first important to find out what is currently running, and whether or not there is opportunity to be had. In a short search around, I can see that some of the value oriented names and groups like equipment, rail, and materials are perking up, but nothing that jumps out as worth taking a closer look at besides DE John Deere. The Question on everyone's mind after all this time in the range. The short answer is absolutely. Tradeable market environments need time to develop. If the market presented opportunities everyday for more than a few months, I would genuinely consider the idea that we are in a blow off top style bubble. Funny enough, the best indicator of incoming despair is extremely long duration bull runs. Before I send you off, here are some charts I am watching/owning this week: CAT DE SNDK DELL LITE MRNA See you all in the next one! Subscribe now Leave a comment