Atlantic Hurricane season remains unusually quiet as peak approaches

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching its historical peak with activity remaining unusually low, but forecasters are cautioning that the season is far from over. As of Monday, September 7, the National Hurricane Center had recorded five named storms, Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. None has reached hurricane strength. By this point in a typical season, the Atlantic would have produced about seven named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane. The basin's Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is also exceptionally low, standing at just 4.4, about 91 percent below the normal level for this point in the season. The quiet pattern is expected to continue in the short term. In its Monday morning Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center said tropical cyclone formation was not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days. That would take the basin past September 10, the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, without a hurricane forming. The slow season is consistent with NOAA's revised August outlook, which gave a 75 percent chance of a below-normal season. NOAA is forecasting between seven and 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes for the full season. Forecasters point to strengthening El Niño conditions as one factor suppressing development. Increased wind shear and stronger trade winds across parts of the tropical Atlantic can make it more difficult for tropical systems to organize. Despite the unusually quiet season so far, officials stress that September and October remain important months for tropical activity. The official Atlantic hurricane season continues through November 30. For the Virgin Islands, the need for continued preparedness is particularly important. The territory experienced the devastating impacts of Category 5 Hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017. While the Atlantic is currently quiet, residents are reminded that reaching the statistical peak of the season does not mean the threat of hurricanes has ended.