NCM forecasts wetter Saudi autumn, with torrential rain possible in October

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is expected to see above-average rainfall across much of the Kingdom this autumn, with October forecast to be the wettest month and heavy to very heavy rain potentially reaching torrential levels in some areas, the National Center for Meteorology said in an outlook carried by the Saudi Press Agency. The NCM's climate outlook for September, October and November said the forecast was intended to support early preparedness and help authorities respond to anticipated weather and climate conditions. The outlook comes as thunderstorms continued to affect several parts of the Kingdom on Friday, with the center warning of moderate to heavy rain, hail and strong winds that could trigger torrential runoff in parts of Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah and Madinah. Rainy thunderclouds accompanied by active winds were also forecast over parts of Hail, Tabuk, Al-Jouf, the Northern Borders, Najran and southern parts of the Eastern Province and Riyadh region. The center said September is likely to bring above-average rainfall to Madinah, Tabuk, Al-Jouf and Hail, as well as parts of Makkah, Riyadh, Qassim, the Northern Borders and the Eastern Province. Rainfall in Jazan, however, is expected to fall below average during the month, while the rest of the Kingdom is forecast to receive near-average precipitation. Conditions are expected to intensify in October, when above-average rainfall is forecast across most regions, including Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah, Madinah, Tabuk, Al-Jouf, Hail, Qassim and the Northern Borders, as well as parts of Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Najran. October is expected to mark the peak of the autumn rainy season, with precipitation ranging from heavy to very heavy and potentially reaching torrential levels in some areas, the NCM said. The likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions is expected to persist into November across Jazan, Asir, Al-Baha, Makkah, Al-Jouf, Hail, Qassim, Riyadh and the Eastern Province, as well as parts of Madinah, Tabuk and the Northern Borders. The probability of above-average rainfall in those areas ranges from 40 percent to 70 percent, with rainfall amounts expected to vary from heavy to very heavy, the center said. The latest outlook broadly extends a wetter pattern that the NCM had already projected for September and October in its previous three-month climate assessment covering August through October. That forecast had identified August as the driest month of the period and predicted that rainfall would increase in September before becoming widespread across nearly all regions in October, when heavy to very heavy and, in isolated areas, exceptionally intense rainfall was possible. The NCM also previously forecast above-average temperatures across most of the Kingdom through October, with some areas expected to record temperatures as much as 2.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Friday's forecast underscored the continuing summer heat, with maximum temperatures expected to reach 48 degrees Celsius in Hafr Al-Batin and Al-Hasa. Dammam was forecast to reach 47 degrees, while Rafha, Madinah, Al-Kharj, Wadi Al-Dawasir, Buraydah and AlUla were expected to record highs of around 46 degrees. The NCM urged the public and relevant authorities to follow its weather forecasts and alerts through the Early Warning System, stressing that unusual or localized rainfall events may not be fully reflected in long-range climate models. Such events can be monitored and forecast more accurately through short-term weather outlooks, it said.