Novo bets on pills taking bigger share of obesity drug market

LONDON, UK: Novo Nordisk is preparing for weight-loss pills to account for as much as half of the global obesity drug market by 2030, as the Danish drugmaker expands its pipeline of oral treatments while competitors remain focused largely on injections. CEO Mike Doustdar said Novo has five oral treatments in development after becoming the first company to bring an obesity pill to market earlier this year, ahead of rival Eli Lilly. Speaking after Novo's Capital Markets Day in London, Doustdar said injections continue to dominate the market, but competitors' emphasis on injectable treatments could benefit Novo over the longer term. "What happens if by 2030 the market is 50/50 (pills-to-injectables)?" he said, noting that rivals' pipelines contain eight injectables for every two pills under development. "We are preparing ourselves for all scenarios, including that one." Such a split would exceed Wall Street forecasts. Oral treatments are currently expected to account for about 14 percent to 40 percent of an obesity drug market projected to reach between US$100 billion and $150 billion by 2030. Novo has faced a sharp reversal since the 2021 launch of Wegovy, which helped make it Europe's most valuable listed company. Its shares have fallen by more than 70 percent from their peak as Eli Lilly has overtaken it in market share. The Wegovy pill has provided some relief. Oral therapies now account for about a third of U.S. obesity prescriptions following their rollout, according to company presentations on September 21, while Novo accounts for more than 80 percent of new oral prescriptions. The pill generated nearly 5.5 billion Danish crowns, or $843 million, in sales during the first half of the year. Novo's oral obesity pipeline includes next-generation dual-acting tablet zenagamtide, an oral amylin analog, and a small-molecule drug. Doustdar also said oral Wegovy was protected from generic competition into the "mid and late 30s" through patents covering its SNAC delivery technology. The issue has been a concern for investors because semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy, is expected to lose exclusivity in the early 2030s.