The long wars linking Trump and Putin

The long wars linking Trump and Putin War on a map is a calculation. War on the ground is a test of endurance. Leaders may enter a conflict believing they understand the balance of power, the enemy's vulnerabilities and the likely path to victory. But once the shooting starts, assumptions collide with reality. A ruler may know when he is going to war; he rarely knows when-or on what terms-he will come home. That is the first lesson of the prolonged conflicts now confronting Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Wars often begin with the ambition to break an adversary. If that decisive victory does not come, the objective gradually changes. The war becomes an exercise in exhaustion: not defeating the enemy outright, but persuading him that continuing to resist is more costly than accepting an imperfect settlement. This is where hubris becomes dangerous. Great powers routinely overestimate their own strength and underestimate the resilience of their opponents. The result is a battlefield full of surprises. A sophisticated military plan can be disrupted by a cheap drone. A supposedly secure border can suddenly become vulnerable. A government convinced of its dominance can discover that the enemy still possesses the will-and the means-to fight. The question now is whether the same logic is unfolding simultaneously in Ukraine and around the Strait of Hormuz. Trump's Iran problem-and Putin's opportunity For Trump, the challenge is not simply military. It is political and economic. If Washington wants to squeeze Iran through sanctions and economic isolation, it cannot do so effectively without taking into account the countries capable of keeping Tehran connected to the outside world-above all China and Russia. China has little appetite for adventures that could impose enormous costs on its economy or destabilize global trade. Russia, however, is in a different position. It has already spent years fighting a costly war in Ukraine and has become deeply invested in a geopolitical confrontation with the West. Reports that Russia has helped Iran restore parts of its military arsenal through the Caspian Sea are therefore significant. The Caspian offers something Western powers cannot easily control: a relatively secure corridor linking Russia and Iran. That creates a strategic problem for Trump. If Washington wants to tighten the economic noose around Tehran, Moscow's cooperation-or at least its non-interference-could become critical. And that raises a bigger question: Does Trump need Putin to get the outcome he wants in Iran? Perhaps not as a partner. But certainly as someone who must not become an obstacle. What does Putin want from Trump? The calculation works in both directions. Putin has now spent years fighting in Ukraine. Russia has captured substantial territory, inflicted enormous destruction and absorbed staggering casualties. Yet Moscow has failed to achieve the political objective that appeared central to its original campaign: forcing Kyiv to accept Russian terms. The invasion of February 2022 was widely interpreted as a war that Russia expected to win quickly. The disparity between Russian and Ukrainian military capabilities appeared overwhelming. Washington had even sent CIA Director William Burns to warn Putin of the consequences of an invasion. Yet Ukraine did not collapse. Instead, the war became a grinding contest of manpower, weapons, money and political endurance. Now the conflict has entered a far more dangerous phase. Russia continues to pound Ukrainian infrastructure, while Ukraine increasingly demonstrates that Russian territory is not beyond reach. Its growing drone capabilities have allowed Kyiv to strike targets deep inside Russia and, perhaps more importantly, challenge the psychological assumption that the war can be fought without consequence on Russian soil. Every Russian missile barrage invites another Ukrainian response. Every escalation makes a negotiated settlement harder. And every month the war continues increases the cost to Moscow. Trump may be Putin's exit route This is why Trump matters to Putin. Russia has paid an extraordinary price for the war. Western sanctions have constrained the Russian economy, while casualties have mounted into the hundreds of thousands and, according to various estimates, well beyond that when wounded and missing are included. The longer the war continues, the more difficult it becomes for Putin to claim an uncomplicated victory. Trump's return to the White House has nevertheless altered the political landscape. Unlike the Biden administration, Trump has repeatedly emphasized the financial burden of supporting Ukraine and has shown considerably less willingness to treat Ukraine's defense as an unquestionable American obligation. His confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in front of the cameras was particularly revealing. For Moscow, these were valuable signals. But Trump's willingness to pressure Kyiv has not translated into Ukrainian capitulation. Europe has continued to support Zelensky, allowing Ukraine to remain in the fight even as its military position becomes increasingly difficult. That leaves Putin with a problem: Trump may be offering an exit, but Putin still has to decide what price he is willing to pay for it. Can one deal unlock another? This is where the wars in Ukraine and around Hormuz begin to intersect. Trump needs a political breakthrough. Putin needs a way out of a war that has become increasingly expensive. Iran needs to avoid strategic isolation. China wants to protect its economic interests without being dragged into another major confrontation. Everyone has something to gain from a deal. Everyone also has reasons to distrust one. Trump's dispatch of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv, amid escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, illustrates the possibility that Washington is trying to connect separate geopolitical problems into one larger bargain. Putin's gestures toward Trump-including a temporary pause in attacks on Kyiv-may demonstrate tactical flexibility. But gestures are not concessions. The Kremlin can praise Trump's pursuit of peace while simultaneously refusing the compromises necessary to produce it. That is Putin's familiar game: appear flexible without surrendering the core objective. The real question is whether Trump can turn that flexibility into a transaction. Could Washington offer Moscow a path toward ending the Ukrainian war in exchange for Russian cooperation-or at least neutrality-on Iran? If so, the battlefield in Ukraine could become part of the bargaining table for the battle around Hormuz. The danger of fighting two wars at once Yet there is another lesson that both Trump and Putin should remember: prolonged wars acquire lives of their own. Leaders can start them. They cannot always control where they end. The fighters in Ukraine and around Hormuz may eventually grow exhausted. But exhaustion does not automatically produce surrender. Sometimes it produces escalation, desperation and increasingly dangerous calculations. The greatest risk is that Washington, Moscow, Kyiv and Tehran each believe the other side is closer to breaking than it actually is. That is how wars become longer than their architects intended. Trump may want a deal with Putin to help solve Iran. Putin may want Trump to help solve Ukraine. Tehran may hope to exploit divisions between Washington, Moscow and Beijing. And Europe may refuse to accept a settlement that it believes rewards Russian aggression. The pieces are moving. But no leader can know exactly where they will land. In war, patience is not weakness. It is often the only reliable antidote to wishful thinking. And after years of fighting in Ukraine-and escalating tensions around Hormuz-that may be the most important lesson of all. Please follow Blitz on Google News Channel