Attempted test launch, probably of Avangard, from Dombarovskiy

Cross-posted fromrussianforces.org By all indications, Russia was preparing to conduct a test launch of an ICBM from Dombarovskiy/Yasnyy toward Kura during the 3-5 September 2026 window. The evidence suggests that the weapon to be tested was the Avangard hypersonic glider deployed by a UR-100NUTTH ICBM. The launch appears to have been cancelled. There were several signs of the upcoming test. Russia released NOTAM notifications that covered the 3-5 September 2026 window. The notices were issued for Dombarovskiy, stage drop areas in the Tyumen oblast and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (KhMAO), and the Kura test site in Kamchatka. In addition, the local presswarnedpeople in the Vikulovo, Vagaisk, and Sorokino regions of the Tyumen oblast of the upcoming test that was supposed to take place on 3 September (with 4 September as a reserve date). The areas around the Kura test site in Kamchatka alsoreceived a warning, which covered the period from 25 August to 5 September (there was aYars launch on 28 August 2026). The areas closed by NOTAM notifications strongly point to a launch of the Avangard system. First, the area over Dombarovskiy only covers the silo that was used to test Avangard (the most recent test took placein December 2018). The silo that was used to launch Sarmat, identified in thevideo of the November 2025 failed launch, is not included in the NOTAM area. For comparison, the image shows the area declared for thesuccessful Sarmat test on 12 May 2026. The declared stage drop areas are even more interesting. The notifications released for the May 2026 test and for the September 2026 event include the same (indeed almost identical) area in KhMAO. Apparently, that was the Sarmat first stage drop area in May 2026. But the September 2026 notification also includes the area in the Tyumen oblast, near Vikulovo, which the Sarmat notification doesn't. It appears that this is the actual first-stage drop area and the area in KhMAO plays a different role. (Theoretically, it's possible that this is where the second stage drops after releasing the glider.) What is notable is that the area near Vikulovo appeared in many previous Avangard launches from Dombarovskiy (the testswere moved there from Baykonur in 2013). The inhabitants of the regions around Vikulovo were warned to stay awayin September 2013(vikulovo.info),February 2015,April 2016(Krasnaya zvezda),December 2018(vikulovo72.ru). Some of the public warnings mention that these kinds of tests have been conducted since 2004, which is when the glidermadeits first public appearance. The Vikulovo area was also used as a first-stage drop area in R-36M2 tests from Baykonur, like the onein December 2009(ura.ru). For the Dombarovskiy launches, the role of the first-stage drop area is played by the KhMAO region - both are about 1300-1400 km from the respective launch sites. As mentioned earlier, if Vikulovo is where the Avangard booster (which is UR-100NUTTH/SS-19 missile) drops its first stage, the KhMAO area would be where the second stage lands after releasing the glider. See Figure 1 inJames Acton's article on hypersonic gliders. The flight trajectory has to be adjusted to place the second stage in this specific drop area, but this may not be a factor that limits tests of the glider. We can say with some certainty that the test did not take place as planned. A success would almost certainly be followed by a public announcement. Avangard has always been too symbolically important a weapon system for Russia to miss an opportunity to bring more attention to it. It does not seem that the test ended in failure either. Had the launch ended in failure, one would expect NOTAMs to have been cancelled shortly after that. The notifications, however, seem to have quietly expired at the end of the 3-5 September window. It's rather circumstantial but that's all we have at the moment. The bottom line is that Russia apparently planned to launch Avangard from Dombarovskiy to Kura, but had to scrub the test for some reason. We should expect another attempt at some point.