Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong receives bold MLB HR prediction that could actually happen

The Chicago Cubs are having a great 2026 season, and no one is playing better than Pete Crow-Armstrong. He's the clear MVP frontrunner thanks to his elite defense and incredible offense. Somewhat surprisingly, PCA has 40 home runs in the 2026 season, three shy of Kyle Schwarber's 43 this year. Can he surpass Schwarber? It's a long shot, but it might not be as impossible as it sounds. ESPN's Eric Karabell is predicting Crow-Armstrong will surpass Schwarber's HR count and lead all of MLB in home runs this year. While it's going to be difficult, there is a reason why this could actually happen: PCA has been hot, while Schwarber has not. Pete Crow-Armstrong predicted to win HR race vs. Kyle Schwarber for one reason "Schwarber reached July with 30 home runs. He has hit only 12 since then, perhaps due to a lingering lower back injury," Karabell writes. "Crow-Armstrong led all players with 14 home runs just in August." While Schwarber tacked on another homer, a big two-out, game-winning solo shot for the Phillies in their 1-0 win over the Atlanta Braves, Crow-Armstrong is still within striking distance of the MLB home run lead. Schwarber has hit just 13 home runs since the start of July, while Crow-Armstrong had 14 in August alone. He's been on a heater compared to Schwarber, who's somewhat struggled lately in the power department. MORE: Cubs trade deadline addition Clay Holmes likely to opt out of $12M 2027 player option It is still Schwarber, and Cubs fans know well and well how hot he can get at the plate. Which is why this is a bold prediction despite the recent trends indicating PCA has a real chance at the top spot on the HR leaderboard. Crow-Armstrong wasn't predicted by ESPN's panel of 15 experts to lead MLB in home runs, with 12 out of the 15 going with Schwarber. But there is still a chance for PCA to hit more homers this year than Schwarber. He will not only need Schwarber to not get hot, but Crow-Armstrong will need to stay hot and make up the three-homer gap that's been built by the Phillies' DH. It's not impossible, but it's not likely either. Could Crow-Armstrong have the most homers in MLB by season's end? Absolutely. It's just going to be very difficult. More MLB news: