Polish IT Firms Turn More Cautious as Demand and Geopolitics Weigh on Sentiment

After a very strong second half of 2025, sentiment in Poland's IT industry cooled noticeably in the first half of 2026. Only 54% of surveyed companies assessed both the previous six months and the outlook for the next half-year positively. The sector is not in a downturn, but weaker demand, geopolitics and difficulty acquiring new customers have become the main concerns, according to the latest IT Industry Sentiment Barometer prepared by SoDA with Future Processing. Optimism falls from late-2025 highs In the first half of 2026, 54% of respondents rated their company's recent situation positively, down from 69% in the second half of 2025. The share of negative assessments increased from 17% to 28%. Expectations for the next six months weakened even more. Positive views fell to 54% from 76% six months earlier. A quarter of companies were neutral, while one in five expected the period ahead to be negative. The results suggest a return to caution rather than a collapse in business conditions. IT PMI remains above 50 SoDA's PMI-style indicator for the Polish IT sector stood at 52.26 points, compared with 56.26 in the previous survey. The index remains above the 50-point threshold, indicating expansion, but the pace of improvement has slowed. Two-thirds of surveyed companies fell within the 40–60 point range, while 17% were in the 20–40 range and another 17% in the 60–80 range. External conditions are the biggest problem The most negative net sentiment was recorded for geopolitics, at minus 63%, followed by general IT-sector conditions at minus 49%. The number of generated leads scored minus 26%, while the tax burden recorded minus 23%. As many as 60% of companies expect weaker market conditions to have a negative effect on their business over the next six months. Only 11% expect a positive impact. Sales and business-model changes move to the top of the agenda Weaker demand is directly influencing corporate priorities. The most frequently cited focus for the next 12 months was changing the business model, mentioned by 28% of respondents, followed by sales at 27%. Maintaining profitability and finding new niches were each selected by 16% of companies. Cost reduction received 11%, brand building 8%, and service quality and scaling 5% each. Only 4% identified maintaining employment as a leading priority. At the same time, 35% expect gross margins to increase over the next six months, 37% expect little change and 29% expect a decline. The labour market is no longer the biggest constraint Staffing conditions were assessed much more positively than the external business environment. Net sentiment toward finding qualified employees reached plus 77%, while employee turnover scored plus 66%. As many as 83% of respondents rated recruitment conditions positively, compared with only 6% negatively. Average voluntary turnover among firms that answered the question was 4.58%. AI remains a perceived opportunity Artificial intelligence is still one of the most positively assessed factors. Two-thirds of surveyed companies expect AI to have a positive impact during the next six months, compared with 20% expecting a negative effect. Net sentiment therefore stands at plus 46%. Companies remain cautious about hardware investment, however. About 46% do not currently plan to modernise infrastructure specifically for AI, one quarter are considering such investment but have not decided, and roughly one fifth are already investing to some degree. More discipline, less expansion The overall picture is mixed. Polish IT companies have largely stabilised staffing and continue to see technological opportunities, but demand is becoming a more important constraint. Priorities are therefore shifting from rapid recruitment toward sales, profitability and business-model adjustment. The study also found moderate openness to ownership transactions. About 40% of respondents would consider selling part or all of their business if an attractive offer appeared, but only around one in ten is actively looking for an investor or buyer. The H1 2026 survey covered 35 IT companies. Around 43% employed 1–50 people, 26% had 51–150 employees and the remainder were larger organisations. Source: ManagerPlus; SoDA and Future Processing, 'IT Industry Sentiment Barometer H1 2026'.