The Minten Contract Is a Warning Shot: Oilers' Delay Could Cost Millions on Matt Savoie

Fraser Minten just signed a seven‑year deal with the Boston Bruins worth $7.2 million AAV — the latest example of the NHL's new trend: long‑term, high‑AAV bets on young players who haven't fully broken out yet. Zeev Buium just inked eight years at $9.38 million AAV. Neither player has a deep NHL résumé, but teams are locking in early and gambling on growth. The Oilers have their own version of this situation staring them in the face. Matt Savoie is eligible for a long‑term extension, and so far, Edmonton has been quiet. Too quiet. I wrote earlier this summer that the Oilers should get ahead of this market. Every week they wait, another young player signs a deal that pushes Savoie's number higher. The Comparable: Minten vs. Savoie Minten is one of the cleanest comparables Savoie will have. Both are 22. Both were drafted in 2022 — Savoie at 9th overall, Minten at 38th. Both just finished their first full NHL season. Both played all 82 games. Minten's path has already included a major trade — he was part of the Brandon Carlo deal — and he delivered a strong season for Boston. Minten: 17 goals, 35 points, +21 Savoie: 18 goals, 37 points, +6 Minten averaged nearly a minute more per game and played center, which carries added value. But Savoie is expected to line up beside the best player on earth this season — and he showed flashes of brilliance on McDavid's wing after the Olympic break. That matters. Teams pay for projection, and Savoie's projection is tied directly to elite deployment. Earlier in the offseason, Edmonton might have been able to lock Savoie in around $5–6 million AAV on a long‑term deal. That window is gone. With Minten and Buium signing big‑number extensions, Savoie's camp will absolutely be pointing at those deals. His ask is now almost certainly $7 million AAV or higher. Matt Savoie Oilers media The Waiting Game — And the Risk Edmonton Is Taking The Oilers have waited this long, and they might decide to keep waiting. Savoie's offseason training injury complicates things — he'll miss the start of the season, and there's a chance he's slow out of the gate simply because he didn't get a full summer of reps. If he starts slow or doesn't immediately stick on McDavid's wing, Edmonton might think they can keep the price down. But that's a dangerous gamble for a team that desperately needs value contracts. Because if Savoie hits — and he looked right on the verge of a breakout after the Olympic break — the number is going to skyrocket. A 60‑plus‑point season pushes him straight into the $8–10 million AAV tier, especially as more young players sign big‑ticket deals. Anything beyond that, and the Oilers are in a brutal negotiating spot. Edmonton has a long history of failing to lock in their young players early, missing the window for team‑friendly deals, and paying the premium later. It looks like they might be repeating the same mistake with Savoie. Time will tell — but waiting could cost them millions on the cap. Next: Why Matt Savoie Should Be the Oilers' Next Core Contract Discover more from NHL Trade Talk Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.