Illinois Football Slips in ESPN's FPI – But Remains the Favorite vs. Duke in Week 2

ESPN's Football Power Index was less than impressed by the Illini's 2026 debut, yet Illinois remains favored in Week 2 Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema walks onto the field prior to the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect– which is perhaps the most revered predictive metric in college football – is high on Illinois. Almost without fail, the AP poll, coaches poll and your weird cousin's power rankings slot the Illini higher than FPI does. , per FPI. Sep 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema during the second half against the UAB Blazers at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Now, with one week down, Illinois has slipped to No. 45 in the FPI rankings. Why, you might wonder? Well, the logical line of thought says metrics are statistics-based, so the Illini's Week 1 performance must have left something to be desired in the box score. Lo and behold, Illinois gave up a hard-to-explain 413 total yards , including 194 yards on the ground against a subpar UAB team. That explains that. Sep 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema shakes hands with the crowd before an NCAA game against UAB at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Yet Illinois, perhaps surprisingly, remains the favorite heading into Week 2 vs. Duke. The home-field advantage certainly doesn't hurt – Gies Memorial Stadium may slowly be turning into a tough place to play – but even if this game were on a neutral field, the Illini would likely be the team to beat. ESPN's FPI gives Illinois a 61.4 percent chance of knocking off Duke and opening the 2026 campaign with back-to-back wins. The Blue Devils, who were No. 52 in the nation in FPI's initial rankings, crept up to No. 50 after toppling Tulane 17-3 in their opener. Sep 3, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Katin Houser scores a touchdown during the second half against the UAB Blazers at Gies Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect Illinois' debut outing of the 2026 season was a two-sided coin. One side displayed an offense that appears to have truly elite upside – and a fairly high floor, as well. The other showed a defense with a nearly polar-opposite outlook: Things could beDuke's scouting report is straightforward: Its ground game – led by running back Nate Sheppard – is outright dominant. The rest of it – passing and defense – is mediocre at best. But stopping the rush appears to be theStill, if the Illini simply load the box and force Duke quarterback Walker Eget to beat them with his arm, the defense should survive and the offense won't have a problem dissecting the Blue Devils' defense. Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendationsPrimarily covers Illinois football and basketball, and Kansas basketball, with an emphasis on analysis, features and recruiting. Langendorf, a third-generation University of Illinois alum, has been watching Illini basketball and football for as long as he can remember. An advertising student and journalism devotee, he has been writing for On SI since October 2024. He can be followed and reached on X @jglangendorf.