Growth nearing 1% of GDP and higher revenues: what it means for the 2027 Budget Law

The Italian economy could grow more than expected in 2026, approaching 1% of GDP. That is the assessment of Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, who on the closing day of the Teha Cernobbio Forum said that Italian GDP would exceed the 0.6% growth indicated in the government's planning documents. 'For now we have secured 0.8%,' the minister explained, adding that if the indicators continue to be favourable, 'growth could come close to 1%.' For Pietro Reichlin, economist and professor at LUISS University, interviewed by Euronews, this is a 'realistic estimate', but still not a result that allows us to speak of a turning point for the Italian economy. Growth remains held back by structural problems, from low productivity to unfavourable demographic trends. It is not yet a new official government forecast, but the figure is significant because it comes on the eve of the drafting of the 2027 Budget Law and is accompanied by another positive signal for the public finances: rising tax revenues. More growth, higher tax revenues In the first seven months of 2026 the state recorded tax revenues of €346.1 billion, €9.4 billion more than in the same period of 2025, an increase of 2.8%, according to the bulletin (source in Italian) from the Finance Department of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF). 'As GDP increases, revenues increase,' the economist explains, a trend 'accompanied by positive employment data'. Higher employment and wages mean a broader tax base and therefore, under normal conditions, more income tax. According to MEF estimates, between January and July 2026 direct taxes amounted to €200.7 billion (+€6.175 billion, or +3.2%) and indirect taxes totalled €145.5 billion (+€3.182 billion, or +2.2%). Tax revenues up, January–July 2026 Among the various items, personal income tax (Irpef) revenues came to €138.5 billion (+€3.7 billion, or +2.7%). VAT revenues totalled €100.3 billion (+€3.6 billion, or +3.8%). Excise duties on energy products in the period January–July stood at €12.7 billion (-€1.2 billion, or -8.5%); in July alone they amounted to €2.2 billion, down 3% on July 2025, also as a result of temporary reductions introduced to limit the impact of higher energy prices. Related Why Italy is still lagging behind other EU countries Reichlin warns that 'we should not celebrate the growth figure too much'. Looking at the international picture, he notes that the improvement is 'fairly widespread' across the European Union, but that Italy 'remains at the tail end, together with Germany and France'.