Apple's foldable iPhone set to grab 25% share in 2026, 40% in 2027 as foldables pass 100 million cumulative shipments

Global foldable smartphone shipments are on track to pass a major milestone by the end of 2026, with lifetime volumes expected to exceed 100 million units, according to Counterpoint Research. That would come in the eighth year of the category, which first reached commercial devices in 2019. Foldables still make up only about 2% of the overall smartphone market, leaving substantial room to grow. Counterpoint says demand should accelerate after Apple's expected entry, alongside stronger interest in wider book-style devices from Samsung and Huawei. Global foldable shipments are forecast to rise 37% year over year in 2027, the fastest growth rate since 2022. With that pace, the next 100 million cumulative units could arrive within about three years. Apple is expected to make an immediate impact even with a short selling window in 2026. Counterpoint forecasts up to 6 million foldable iPhone shipments this year, giving Apple about 25% of the global foldable market and the No. 2 position behind Samsung at 38% and ahead of Huawei at 22%. The firm says that ranking would be significant so soon after Apple enters the category. Supply, not demand, is expected to cap the early ramp. Initial production of Apple's first foldable iPhone is likely to stay limited after this week's expected unveiling, with sales and deliveries building gradually as availability expands by market. Associate Director Liz Lee said those constraints keep the upper end of the 2026 forecast at 6 million units, but that Apple can still take a quarter of the market and move straight into second place. A full year of Apple sales is then expected to be a major driver in 2027. Counterpoint forecasts Apple's foldable shipments will more than double and its share will reach 40%. Samsung remains the innovation leader in the category, while Huawei continues to be a key force in China with a wide range of designs. Other brands, including Xiaomi, Motorola, HONOR, Google, vivo and OPPO, are also preparing new foldables, including wider-format models. Research Director Tarun Pathak said Apple's entry will increase competition at the premium end, but the category is still small enough that there is room for several vendors to grow. The broader mix of designs and brands, he said, should help the market expand over the next few years. Counterpoint argues the longer-term test will be user experience, not just hardware novelty. Price points remain about three times those of conventional slab smartphones, and mass-market adoption is still some years away. For now, the firm sees foldables splitting between productivity and content-consumption use cases as more premium buyers enter the segment. ‎ MacDailyNews Take: Apple will quickly dominate the foldable smartphone market. Apple's first foldable iPhone is projected to ship more than 10 million units in its debut year, according to research firm IDC. Apple will sell every foldable iPhone it can make next year and still have people lining up to buy. Apple wasn't first with fingerprint recognition, they were the first to do it right with Touch ID. Apple wasn't first with facial recognition, they were the first to do it right with Face ID. Apple wasn't first with contactless payments, they were the first to do it right with Apple Pay. — MacDailyNews, February 27, 2019 If and when Apple debuts a foldable iPhone, they'll be showing the world how it should be done and what to copy going forward. As usual. — MacDailyNews, February 27, 2019 As with fingerprint and facial recognition, when Apple debuts a foldable iPhone, then foldable smartphones will have been done right. — MacDailyNews, January 17, 2019 ‎ Please help support MacDailyNews — and enjoy subscriber-only articles, comments, chat, and more — by subscribing to our Substack: macdailynews.substack.com. Thank you! Support MacDailyNews at no extra cost to you by using this link to shop at Amazon.