Bought a home in 2023? New analysis finds it was Florida's worst year to buy since 2007

ST. JOHNS COUNTY, Fla. – Home prices may be cooling in parts of Florida, but a new analysis shows many recent homebuyers face the risk of losing money when they sell. More than half of homeowners in several Northeast Florida counties who bought homes in 2022 or 2023 and have since sold them did not recoup what they paid after accounting for the costs of buying and selling, according to an analysis by Momentum Realty. Recommended Videos St. Johns County had the highest percentage of losses in Florida, with 70.6% of homeowners in the analysis losing money when they sold. Flagler County was close behind at 70.3%. The analysis looked at more than 2.3 million Florida homes, matching each property's sale with an earlier sale of the same property using closed real estate records dating back to 2001. The analysis also accounted for an estimated 8% in costs associated with buying and selling a home. Jon Brooks, market analyst and co-founder of Momentum Realty, said 2023 was likely the worst year to buy a home in Florida based on the data. '2023 was probably the worst year to purchase a house in these counties,' Brooks said. St. Johns County was not the only Northeast Florida county where recent buyers faced losses. Among homeowners who bought in 2022 or 2023 and have since sold: Brooks said some homeowners are finding themselves competing against new construction when they try to sell. Builders are offering incentives, including interest-rate buy-downs, to attract buyers. That can make existing homes purchased during the peak of the market harder to sell without taking a loss. 'It wasn't necessarily somebody who bought a new construction home,' Brooks said. 'It was someone who bought a 2010 to 2018 built house near new construction in St. Johns County that now has to compete with the builders when they go to sell.' Home prices surged across Florida during the pandemic-era housing boom, with some homeowners watching their properties increase in value by double digits year after year. 'People were seeing prices go up 10, 12, 15 percent every single year for several years, and people thought that trend would continue,' Brooks said. But the market has since cooled in many areas, while higher mortgage rates and incentives from builders have changed the competitive landscape. That means a homeowner who paid a premium several years ago may now find the home is worth less than expected. Brooks said Momentum Realty receives calls from homeowners who purchased in 2022, 2023 and 2024 and are now 'underwater,' meaning they owe more on the home or would receive less from a sale than they expected after accounting for transaction costs. The analysis goes back more than two decades, allowing researchers to compare how purchases made in different years have performed when those homes were later sold. The data shows 2006 was the worst year for Florida buyers overall. Among people who bought homes in 2006 and later sold them, 85.8% lost money after accounting for buying and selling costs. Brooks said 2020 was the safest year to buy based on the analysis. Conditions deteriorated in each subsequent year, culminating with 2023. 'The last worst time to purchase a house was actually in Florida was 2006,' Brooks said. '2020 was actually the safest time to purchase a house. And then it got worse every single year. Now, 2023, according to the data, is the worst year to have purchased a house in the state of Florida.' The analysis does not mean every homeowner who purchased in 2022 or 2023 is losing money. It only measures properties that have already been resold and factors in estimated transaction costs. For homeowners who bought near the peak of the market and have not yet sold, the length of time they remain in the home could also affect whether they ultimately make or lose money.