A Glimpse at the End of August at MNQU2026

'It's Labor Day son. It's the time you're supposed to labor!' - My grandfather Bobo's exhortation to his son, Wayne, my father, as a kid. That is exactly what my grandfather told my father when working the farm as a young man.The story of that relationship is pretty interesting, to say the least, and I will not discuss it here, butI will throw some labor into the issue of what MNQ is going as August ends. Lets go through the monthly, weekly, and daily charts to see what we can glean from them. I realize that the contract rolls over to MNQZ2026 shortly, but I still think this is a good place to study things, as Septembers often fall into chaotic periods, and who knows what will happen this year, with a debt crisis, a war, elections, an AI boom or bloat, depending on how you look at it, and other real and perceived calamities. Lets get started. Buffalo Trader's Writing Desk is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Let's take a look at a chart that shows all of the VWAP control point lines in white measured from swing highs from 2021 onward. If you click on the screen, you can see it in high detail. This chart is designed to help you see how wide these gaps between control points have become since former Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised Fed funds rates: March 21, 2018 — raised to 1.50%–1.75% June 13, 2018 — raised to 1.75%–2.00%. September 26, 2018 — raised to 2.00%–2.25%. December 19, 2018 — raised to 2.25%–2.50% The subsequent market panic and the protests of President Trump led to 2019 rate cuts: July 31 — −25 bp to 2.00–2.25% September 18 — −25 bp to 1.75–2.00% October 30 — −25 bp to 1.50–1.75% Started the year at 2.25–2.50%. No other cuts in 2019. The point of this chart shows that the subsequent infusion ofCovid-era stimulus drove the markets straight up after 2020 as that is where most institutional money, now flush with investor cash and their own funds, made these sharp bullish thrusts at each of those swing points. What else is important to note? When crazy stuff like the Liberation Day tariff announcement hit in April 2025, the Magnificent 7 all seemed trapped in a supply chain crisis for chip materials, and the MNQ and QQQs all bounced hard. Notice how it stopped along one of the loosely confluent monthly VWAP control points at 17667 (close to 17691 control point). Could this happen again?Yes, it could, and those gaps in VWAP control points are natural stopping points for deeper corrections.Will it happen? Who knows, but the damage to bullish trends could be severe in the interim. The evidence is seen in the actions of large commercial traders. For now, I will leave a discussion about the 'inside month' candle for a later time and the potential for a bear flag. At this point you'd probably be reaching for straws as for now, the printing press at the U.S. Treasury seems well-oiled and ready to pump out the bull market cash.Let us now take a look at the weekly charts. The key things to note here, using the same techniques to look for weekly VWAP control points for MNQU2026 at swing highs as with the monthly VWAP control points, shows a similar impact. That is, the weekly VWAP control points very closely align with the monthly charts and the money pumping action is drastic even in the shorter timeframes. There are 50 week VWAP control points and not the 50 month VWAP control points of the monthly MNQU charts.The data packets are smaller than monthly packets, but the width of price action (the X axis) is basically the same.The target projection as far as highs and lows on a weekly basisstill pretty much hold from the last time I published.Let's take a look at the daily charts. As you can see from this chart, price action in this contract has been weak pre-Labor Day (as it almost always is at the end of summer).If volume returns and the buyers are ready to push higher based on the continued printing of the USD, then we could end up, based on an AB=CD price projection of 32,194.25 is not an impossibility of the next month. The very opposite of that, discussed in that previous chart post, could also be a result, depending upon what happens with the actions of the Federal Reserve to buy its own bonds back when no one else will in an attempt to keep interest rates rising, which would make borrowing more difficult here as rates in Japan also skyrocket.The yen carry trade meltdown that might result would sink a lot of margin traders on this side of the Pacific Ocean along with stock and real estate prices potentially. When the USD is worthless fiat currency, you get those kinds of messes. Our Federal and state governments will be forced to spend less also (something that HAS to happen), or the entire entitlement state we live in will itself collapse. We will discuss this in other posts in the future. The boo-birds, scaremongers, bears and others have been shaken by some activity in NQ and in other U.S. Indices lately, but as I mentioned by the look of the daily charts, things got sloppy last week.VIX sort of dried up.What could that mean? Look at this chart: We are not really in a place of great fear, despite all the many reasons, real or perceived, that are happening as war rages, inflation flares, and AI hype and AI borrowing explodes.VIX, however, closed on Friday and a timid and tepid 14.53, which is a sign of 'rabid complacency', meaning there was an overwhelming need NOT to be concerned about anything. We know that the QQQs are quite expensive by all measures including things like M2 money supply below. When things get complacent as they are now, one might consider looking at the portfolio to reduce exposure to stocks that may have run their course from earnings growth perspective or that do not fit your goals specifically.You may want to free up capital for times when the market gives you an opportunity to buy in a moment of panic and capitulation that happens when VIX goes nuts to the upside. Something to consider as we head into September and the fourth quarter of 2026. Volatility and volume were both absent last week, so only four trades showed up. The data below (adjusted for single units so as not to panic those who think I am a riverboat gambler, which I am not) went like this. To summarize, it SUCKED EGGS!Volume would simply not allow trades to hold and run to targets as they had literally throughout the month of August 2026. The real question is, did I follow my trade plan exactly as I had written it?The answer is yes.Did I take unnecessary trades or revenge trade?The answer is no.Monday was a good example of that, as no trade arrived (on August 31, 2026) that merited an entry.I am trying as best I can to follow Paul Tudor Jones' advice as stated below. I will begin again tomorrow doing the same thing that made August 2026 a great month.I will follow my trade plan, sit on my hands until the trade setups arrive, and let the trades run to the specified target, get out with green on the screen, and then go about the rest of my business day. The stops don't move either. That is all for this installment of theBuffalo Trader's Writing Desk. The next one will be behind a paywall, but there will be free ones available often and I will do all I can to keep the quality of the content high! Thank you again for supporting this Substack! Have a great September everyone! Buffalo Trader's Writing Desk is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.