Netanyahu and the secret warnings before October 7: How did Israel miss the signs?

In the weeks before October 7, 2023, warning signs were piling up around Gaza, from intelligence indicating that Hamas was preparing something major to messages about an impending "earthquake". Yet one of the most significant warnings came through an unexpected channel, reaching Israel's prime minister just days before the attack.UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, known as MBZ, spoke to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for 45 minutes from the Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi in late September, reports Israeli daily Haaretz. He warned that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was preparing a major operation that could cause bloodshed, destabilise the region and undermine the Abraham Accords.Netanyahu, however, responded calmly, saying he believed Hamas was planning an operation in the West Bank and that Israel was prepared for any scenario, the investigation said. Four AI black swans that could rewrite the music industry The Israeli prime minister's office has rejected the account, calling it an "absolute lie". It said Netanyahu did not speak to the UAE president during the period in question and received no warning from him. The UAE warning came after a series of messages suggesting that Sinwar was preparing a major operation.In September, a senior Fatah official acting as an intermediary between Hamas and Israel met Sinwar in Gaza. Sinwar reportedly warned him that he was preparing a "huge surprise" and repeatedly used the Arabic word "zilzal", meaning earthquake.The intermediary passed the warning to a Palestinian adviser to bin Zayed, who subsequently briefed the Emirati president.After further discussions, the warning was conveyed to Israel's Shin Bet security service on September 15. Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar then briefed Netanyahu and a security meeting was held two days later.Bar warned that Israel was on a "collision course" and recommended either a powerful operation against the threat or stronger defensive measures in Gaza and the West Bank. No decisions were taken.Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel also reportedly warned Netanyahu around the same time of "something unusual, a terrifying operation" being prepared by Hamas. The warnings came as Israel and Hamas were engaged in secret negotiations over a possible temporary truce and measures to ease Gaza's economic isolation.The talks, conducted with Netanyahu's knowledge and approval, included proposals to increase supplies entering Gaza, establish trade zones and create jobs. Discussions also covered the release of four Israelis held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.By the end of August, an Israeli security source said Netanyahu had approved the release of 30 Palestinian prisoners, including 20 serving life sentences. The remaining step was approval by the ministerial committee responsible for hostages and missing persons.But Netanyahu repeatedly delayed convening the committee. In early September, frustrated by the lack of progress, Sinwar cut off contact with the negotiating team.According to the investigation, Hamas and its allies increasingly viewed Israel's internal political turmoil over the government's judicial overhaul as a sign of vulnerability. On October 7, Hamas launched its attack at 6:29am, breaching the border and abducting civilians and soldiers.Even in the first hours after the attack, efforts were made to open channels for a hostage deal. Qatar offered to mediate, while Hamas reportedly indicated through intermediaries that it was prepared to release civilian hostages.However, Israeli officials were initially unwilling to negotiate while the military response was under way. According to a senior defence official cited in the investigation, the hostage issue was not included among the government's initial war objectives.As the war intensified, Hamas hardened its position and negotiations became more difficult.The investigation argues that the failure to act on the warnings, combined with years of attempts to contain Hamas rather than confront it directly, contributed to the conditions that preceded October 7. Former Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar and former IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi said they had not been informed of the warning attributed to bin Zayed. Haaretz said it contacted bin Zayed for comment but received no response.