#19 SMU vs. Florida State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks Today – Monday, 9

Two relatively new ACC rivals do battle to close out Week 1 of the college football season, as #19 SMU and Florida State collide in what could be a doozy of a matchup on Monday night. Ahead of kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, it's the visitors who are favored by a narrow 2.5 points on PrizePicks. Can the Mustangs justify their ranking to begin a new season, or will the Seminoles build off a Week 0 triumph and keep the good times rolling? Below, we'll break down our SMU vs. Florida State prediction and picks for Monday's college football game, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks. {{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}} #19 SMU vs. Florida State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 1 – Monday, September 7 The Rhett Lashlee era rolls on in Texas, as Southern Methodist University has ripped off a 38-16 record in his four seasons as head coach. That included back-to-back 11-win campaigns before the squad dipped down to 9-4 in 2025. Despite that, the Mustangs have to be feeling good coming off a Holiday Bowl victory against Arizona and a quality offseason. There's plenty of continuity on this side, evidenced by SMU ranking 22nd in returning production from 2025, including 66% of its offensive output coming back for another year. Leading the way for Lashlee's crew is QB Kevin Jennings, who's been with the team dating back to 2022. With nearly 1,000 pass attempts under his belt, he's one of the more experienced signal-callers in FBS and benefits from portal additions like WR Yannick Smith and RB Kendrick Raphael. It's been much tougher sledding for Florida State in recent years. After combining for a scorching 23-4 record across 2022 and 2023, the Seminoles mustered all of two wins in 2024 and improved to 5-7 last year. HC Mike Norvell's seat seems to be warming up, placing additional pressure on the program to deliver results this fall. Are those expectations valid? With players like TE Desirrio Riles (East Carolina transfer) and WR Jasen Lopez (4-star freshman) joining the offense and tone-setters such as LB Chris Jones (Louisville) and CB Ma'Khi Jones (Duke) now in the fold, the path is there. The Seminoles have 23 four-year transfers this year, in addition to four from the JUCO ranks. Per the school, 26 of its 62 new players logged snaps against New Mexico State, with 10 of them being starters. In that August 29 win, FSU dropped 17 points in each half to eventually pull away from the Aggies. New QB Ashton Daniels (Auburn) left a solid first impression on his team and its fans. SMU and Florida State have met just once on the gridiron before, with the previous bout taking place during the Mustangs' inaugural ACC season in 2024. Jennings dominated in that one, throwing for 254 yards and 3 TDs en route to a 42-point overall output by the Mustangs to the Seminoles' 16. SMU vs. Florida State Spread, Over/Under – Monday, September 7 SMU enters Monday's game as a 2.5-point road favorite against Florida State, returning a 1.63x payout on PrizePicks if they win outright. Here are the full payouts for the SMU vs. Florida State game on PrizePicks. Winner Spread Over/Under SMU Mustangs 1.63x -2.5 | 1.78x o53.5 | 1.81x FSU Seminoles 2.17x +2.5 | 1.96x u53.5 | 1.88x Make your SMU vs. Florida State pick on spread or over/under on PrizePicks Team Picks. Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change. SMU vs. Florida State Prediction on Spread – 9/7/26 Here are the key game stats and trends behind our SMU vs. Florida State prediction on the spread for Monday, September 7's game. In 2025, Florida State was an even 1-1 against the spread as home underdogs. SMU went 1-3 as road favorites on the year. These two ground attacks produced at similar rates last season. Via Game on Paper, FSU actually outperformed SMU in explosive run rate (55th percentile to 48th percentile). In their games a year ago, the Seminoles' defense clamped down on the opposition by holding them to a 93rd-percentile explosive play share overall and sitting in the 85th percentile in EPA per play surrendered. No defense faced more pass attempts each time out than 2025 SMU with 39.8. In the opener against New Mexico State, Daniels helped conjure up 0.31 EPA/dropback (75th percentile). A lack of discipline could come back to bite the Mustangs in this one. They were 129th out of 136 teams in penalty yards per game last campaign (69.8), which was significantly higher than the Seminoles' 46.3 mark (35th). Lock in your SMU vs. Florida State prediction on PrizePicks now. SMU vs. Florida State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 9/7/26 Here are the top SMU vs. Florida State picks to target on Monday, September 7. Today's college football picks for PrizePicks include QB Kevin Jennings, QB Ashton Daniels, and RB Kendrick Raphael. SMU QB Kevin Jennings vs. Florida State: 264.5 Pass Yards Jennings put up 280.1 passing yards per game last season, but that number was inflated by how he finished the year. Across his first eight games, that figure was down to 264.9. The veteran signal-caller struggled more away from home, completing 15.3% fewer passes and posting 1.68 fewer yards per throw. Jennings was extremely careless with the football a year ago, leading the conference with 13 INTs. Florida State had an INT on 3.19% of plays, a top-35 mark nationally. The Seminoles slotted into the 89th percentile in yards per dropback ceded in 2025. {{cfb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}} Florida State QB Ashton Daniels vs. SMU: 202.5 Pass Yards Across three heavy-involvement outings for Auburn last year, Daniels averaged 240.0 passing yards. Daniels fueled Florida State to 5 explosive pass plays against New Mexico State and a 64% success rate on late downs. SMU's 2025 pass defense was rather leaky, sitting in the 38th percentile in success rate and the 40th percentile in explosive play clip. The Mustangs gave up the third-most passing YPG a campaign ago with 286.4 each week. SMU RB Kendrick Raphael vs. Florida State: 65.5 Rush Yards Raphael notched 72.5 rushing YPG in his lone season at California, albeit while leading the ACC in attempts with 232. Last year's SMU squad ranked 120th out of 136 programs with just 30.7 rushing tries each time out. Raphael failed to crack the top 150 qualified ball carriers with his 1.33 total EPA and 44.2% rush success rate at Cal. Despite stumbling overall in 2025, Florida State was stout against the run and ranked inside the top 30 teams in yards per rush ceded with just 3.7. Make SMU vs. Florida State Picks on PrizePicks Florida State's football program has been trending in the wrong direction since its heyday in 2023, but Norvell and company got off on the right foot to kick off 2026. Taking down SMU is no easy task, however, even with the Mustangs entering hostile territory at Doak Campbell Stadium. Don't wait until kickoff — make your SMU vs. Florida State picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you're right. Pick college football players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you're right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on college football game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states. 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