Off The Bat: If the Pirates don't pull off a late-season stunner, they can blame these numbers

The Pirates had a productive homestand. They did what they had to do, winning two series against two of the teams with baseball's worst records. They have won six of their last seven series, including four in a row. But entering the homestand, FanGraphs put their playoff odds near 1%. Despite a 4-2 record, those odds haven't budged. Those inside the clubhouse have continued to say the right things, believing they can shock the baseball world by going on a run and stealing a playoff bid. Mathematically, there's still a chance. Realistically, the National League's longest playoff drought is almost certain to reach an 11th year. While there's been injuries and some bad luck, a few numbers show why the Pirates enter their Chicago trip five games out of the wild-card race and two games under .500. The most jarring is the Pirates' record against lefties. The Pirates are 14-31 against left-handed starters this year. If the Pirates had been even close to even, they would be well within the wild-card picture. Opposing teams have clearly taken note. Since the All-Star Break, no team has faced a lefty starter more than the Pirates have — 20 times in 47 games. It's not a shock that the Pirates are better against right-handers. They were constructed that way. Offseason acquisitions Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn are both historically better against right-handers. Two of the Pirates' top returning hitters, Oneil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz, have similar splits, even with Cruz's dramatic improvement this year. But the Pirates made an effort to address that weakness by signing Marcell Ozuna, who had crushed lefties in his career. Instead, Ozuna struggled badly enough that the Pirates released him. The Pirates also went 26-40 when Ozuna started at designated hitter. While those starts often came against a lefty, especially as the end of his tenure neared, those losses are significant. Another number the Pirates will rue is their 22 blown saves. While a blown save doesn't directly correlate with a loss — and 10 teams have blown more saves this season, including the Washington Nationals' record-tying 37 — it's a figure that has cost the Pirates plenty. The Pirates are 55-8 when leading after six innings and 59-3 when leading after eight. While three losses don't seem like many, it would have flipped a losing record into a winning one. It's also impacted how the Pirates have done when their offense performs. When they score five or more runs in a game this season, they're 49-19. When they score seven, they're 34-9. Both seem strong, but too many wins have gone unclaimed. For context, the Los Angeles Dodgers are 53-9 when scoring five runs, including a 36-3 mark when scoring seven or more. The Pirates also haven't capitalized on their ace as they should, though their ace also hasn't performed as they expected. It's no secret that Paul Skenes hasn't been Paul Skenes this year, from decreased velocity to his 3.83 ERA. The Pirates are just 13-16 with Skenes pitching this year — even after winning his last four starts, including two on the homestand. It's atypical not to have success with an ace on the mound. When Cristopher Sanchez pitches, the Philadelphia Phillies are 21-8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 22-7 with Eduardo Rodriguez. The Cincinnati Reds are 19-7 with Chase Burns. Not all the blame falls on Skenes, but that mark makes a difference in a playoff push. Clean baseball is key, too. The Pirates had an errorless homestand against the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Angels, much-needed after an unsightly weekend in St. Louis. Against the Cardinals, the Pirates had consecutive three-error games, bringing their season total to a 90. That number is tied for the third-most in the majors, ahead of only the Giants and Nationals. When the Pirates play errorless baseball, they're 48-34. When they commit even one error, they're 23-39. Of course, the Pirates' second half slump has been perhaps the final blow. The Pirates are still five games under .500 since the All-Star Break, even after taking two of three from the Angels despite scoring just one run in each game. It's been a team-wide offensive dip. They had a .768 OPS in the first half, trailing only the Dodgers for the highest OPS in the majors. That dropped to .651 since the All-Star break, better than only the Angels. All these statistics have mattered. So if the Pirates don't pull off a late-season stunner — almost certain, given they're five games behind the Diamondbacks with four teams to pass and just 18 games to go — it won't just be one number to blame. I'll be watching… Spencer Horwitz's continued slump. Horwitz is hitting .136 with just one extra-base hit since returning from the injured list. He's still hit leadoff in 12 of his last 18 appearances, even though he clearly isn't right. It's been one of the reasons why the Pirate offense has struggled so badly of late, and it's worth wondering if Horwitz's mechanics are off or if he isn't fully healthy. How the Pirates manage their pitching. The Pirates have several pitchers who are feeling the effects of September. Fully shutting down their pitchers would be waving the white flag on the season, plus there's future value in making every start, so I don't expect a full shutdown. However, I wouldn't be opposed to going to a six-man rotation for the final three weeks and seeing what Wilber Dotel, Antwone Kelly, Khristian Curtis and Hunter Barco offer. Luke Weaver's bout with poison ivy. Weaver has been dealing with a particularly bad case of poison ivy since the Pirates' trip to Miami in mid-August, telling DK Pittsburgh Sports it's caused him to break out in hives and affected his sleep. It's certainly affected his first month in Pittsburgh, while it's also another example of misfortune for the Pirates. They said it… 'You can tell he's legit. He's got the build of a shortstop. Can play. [We saw] how fast he was last night. [He] can change games.' — Mike Trout on Konnor Griffin Prospect pictures High-A Greensboro qualified for the South Atlantic League playoffs last year, even though much of their talent — including Griffin and Esmerlyn Valdez — had already moved up to Double-A. The Grasshoppers are back in the playoffs this year, and most of the talent remains. While Seth Hernandez is sidelined, 19-year-old Edward Florentino (No. 2 Pirates prospect) provides some star power. Jhonny Severino (No. 28) leads the Pirates' system with 31 homers. Tony Blanco Jr. (No. 27) has 25 homers and was on a tear in August. Catcher Axiel Plaz (No. 7) had a breakout year, hitting .305 with 18 homers. Shortstop Wyatt Sanford (No. 5) homered in four of five games this week. Double-A is when prospects prove they can be major leaguers, but there's plenty of talent worth monitoring in Greensboro's postseason play. On deck Week in the Windy City The Pirates start six days in Chicago on Tuesday. After a week at home against two bottom-dwelling teams, they'll face a much greater test against White Sox and Cubs teams with grasps on playoff spots. Return of O'Hearn? Ryan O'Hearn (left quad strain) is expected to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Indianapolis early this week, general manager Ben Cherington said on his Sunday radio show. His return would be a boon to a struggling Pirates offense, once again putting the lineup at full strength. Bottom of the ninth Oneil Cruz made a boneheaded play in the eighth Saturday, ending the inning when he was thrown out trying to steal third with a five-run deficit. It was something Don Kelly addressed with him, saying publicly that the attempt was 'something we can't do right there' and bringing it up privately, as well. Kelly left it at that, starting Cruz in center field the next day. I don't mind that decision. To me, there's a difference between not hustling — which got Cruz benched in 2025 — and trying to be too aggressive and making a bad choice. Evidently, the Pirates agree. They're also fighting for every game, even with their dwindling playoff odds. Is it worth hurting your own chances to win to prove a point, especially when there are other, less public ways to do so? In my opinion, no, especially when there's no guarantee it has the intended impact. If Cruz makes another out at third in a blowout, it may be worth revisiting. But until then, the Pirates need all they can get out of Cruz. © 2026 the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Visit www.post-gazette.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.Success! 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