COLUMN: What may happen if SpaceX invades Pecan Island

Let's say the reports are true, and SpaceX does build a new launch facility in Pecan Island on 130,000 acres in Vermilion Parish. What kind of an impact might this actually have? It largely depends on whether SpaceX just builds a spaceport or if they also build a manufacturing facility. A spaceport would likely cost hundreds of millions to build and create hundreds of permanent new jobs. But if a manufacturing facility is included, then the buildout would grow to billions, with thousands of new permanent jobs created. And it's not an either/or proposition. In Texas, SpaceX started with a spaceport in Cameron County, then it added manufacturing a decade later. Now, the company's Starbase near Brownsville employs 4,300 people. If that's what ends up happening in Pecan Island, this project would have a profound impact on Vermilion Parish's economy. Especially as the current labor force of this parish is just 23,000, and these new jobs would likely pay 50% or more above the average local wage. We're talking about millions of dollars in new local tax revenue, both one-time gains from sales tax on capital investments during buildout and long-term gains from increased economic vibrancy. You'd also expect to see some amount of positive impact on local real estate values. From an economic standpoint, there are certainly reasons to be excited. But I think we need to temper that excitement with a proper understanding of reality and the risks inherent to a project like this, risks that can actually increase the more successful SpaceX is. First off, even if details get announced tomorrow, it will likely take a decade for the impact to be fully felt. Because large complex construction projects like this take time. Second, if all that gets built is a launch site, then the impact will be modest. It'll still be great for Vermilion Parish, but not necessarily transformative. And it would have minimal long-term impact on Lafayette's economy. Third, no one knows if SpaceX's ambitions are achievable. Elon Musk's claims for future production of his new Starship have grown one a day in 2024, to a thousand per year in 2025, to upwards of 10,000 per year in 2026. He's even talked about these giant ships launching once an hour across the globe. If that ambition comes true, there could be multiple launches out of Pecan Island every week with multiple Starships rolling off the line. Economic promise aside, there is understandable and growing concern over what impact this would have on the local environment. Because the more of this economic success that is realized, the more the risks and threats grow in kind. Every time there's a launch that creates untreated wastewater laced with heavy metals. SpaceX has already been found to have violated the Clean Water Act in Texas, where its launch facility sits right next to the Boca Chica Wildlife Refuge. The risks could be higher in Pecan Island because marsh channels connect more directly to freshwater bayous and the Intracoastal Waterway. The bigger the Starfactory that gets built, the more continuous industrial wastewater and air pollution will be created. So it's not just polluting on launch days any more. And this is all happening in an area that was supposed to be set aside for coastal restoration. An unofficial nature preserve that will undoubtedly have a number of wildlife habitats disrupted no matter what scale SpaceX ends up building out. Even if you're not someone who cares about the environment, if you live near this facility you should be aware that it may affect your home insurance. While there isn't evidence of rates increasing or homes not being able to get insurance near Starports yet, there is a pattern of insurers excluding SpaceX-related damage from things like sonic booms and ground vibrations. There are currently 150 Texas families suing SpaceX across multiple lawsuits for foundation cracks, warped flooring, and structural damage from Starship test launches and static fires in communities five to 13 miles from the pad. Louisiana recently passed a law insulating companies like SpaceX from such lawsuits, meaning homeowners would likely get stuck with the cost of repairs. Unless they live close enough to the site for SpaceX to buy them out, or for the government to take their property through expropriation. Any economic development project of this scale brings with it some amount of potential for unintended consequences. And when you're talking about launching rockets to space, the scale of those risks increase. So what does all this mean? For Lafayette, I'm not sure if it'll actually make that much of an impact. Short term there'll be a lot of spending which should flow through some number of Lafayette companies to help with buildout. But long term, I think Lafayette's economy is large enough that while SpaceX coming to town will help, especially as it'll strengthen a regional neighbor, the impact will be more marginal than transformative. For people in Vermilion Parish excited about this, I'd recommend caution. No matter what gets built, it should have a positive impact on your economy. But it's going to take time, and without manufacturing the gains may be less than you hope for. For people in Vermilion Parish worried about this, I hate to say it, but there's likely nothing you can do to stop SpaceX from coming to town, unless you're willing to start chaining yourselves to cypress trees. Instead the better thing to focus on is exactly what's been starting to happen: organizing as a community to ask hard questions and get people informed, to protect your community's interests, and to fight for whatever concessions you can gain, whether they're to preserve your environment or reinvest in your community. At this point, none of us can be sure what's going to happen. This whole deal could ultimately end up going nowhere, or it could literally transform the face of Vermilion Parish's economy and community, for better or for worse. View on thecurrentla.com