SpaceX's stock could jump 43% - if the company is able to accomplish this engineering feat

By William Gavin Failing to successfully scale the Starship rocket would make SpaceX's plans a lot more difficult SpaceX's Starship rocket lifted off from Starbase, Texas, for its 13th flight on July 24. It marked the second flight of the V3 Starship and Super Heavy vehicles. Whether a SpaceX investment pays off "rests almost entirely" on the company's ability to address a "massive" bottleneck, according to a newly bullish analyst who sees room for the stock to rise 43%. Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak on Tuesday said making SpaceX's Starship rocket fully reusable is key to whether buying the stock (SPCX) makes sense at levels that currently have given the company a $2 trillion valuation. Success with a fully reusable market would make it so SpaceX could quickly launch missions and keep costs down. SpaceX says the rocket has a payload capacity of more than 100 metric tons, or more than four times that of its popular Falcon 9. While Starship is needed to unlock a lot of the company's potential, the vehicle is still being refined. So far, there have been just two tests of the third and latest version of Starship and its Super Heavy booster. SpaceX has warned that it has faced delays developing Starship in the past, that more delays are possible and that any significant issues could harm its business. SpaceX wants the vehicle to carry artificial-intelligence and next-generation Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit, as well as ferry people and cargo to other planets. Starship could also help SpaceX win more defense contracts and unlock new markets, Wlodarczak said in a note to clients on Tuesday. From April: Moon launches are having a moment. But can you make money off the lunar frenzy? "Our $220 target is a call on reuse 20-50 flights per vehicle, cheap refurb, fast turnaround," Wlodarczak said. "If that is solved, the rest of the model can happen. If it is not, SPCX is a different and much smaller company." SpaceX shares rose more than 3% in recent trading Tuesday to trade at around the $153 level. The company is expected to attempt its 14th Starship test as soon as next week, after its previous near-flawless mission in July. On that mission, SpaceX deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit, providing it with data before they burned up on re-entry as planned. The company hasn't declared its targets for the 14th mission. SpaceX has invested at least $15 billion on developing Starship, and ramping up launch capacity is set to cost a lot more. It plans to spend at least $100 billion on a new spaceport in Louisiana dedicated primarily to Starship. CEO Elon Musk envisions eventually launching more than 30 407-foot-tall rockets each day from the Louisiana site. He's said he wants "at least" one Starship rocket, or "possibly more," flying per day by next August. "SpaceX makes sci-fi real," Musk said last month. While Starship is expected to help SpaceX scale, it will likely leave a Falcon-sized hole in the space industry. The company is likely to retire the medium-lift Falcon 9 rocket by the early 2030s, according to KeyBanc, widening a gap between launch supply and demand. Musk has said that it makes sense to wind down the Falcon rocket once Starship is "flying reliably several times per week." On Aug. 30, he said that "hopefully" some of the Falcon Heavy's contractual obligations can be transferred to Starship. The Falcon Heavy can carry nearly 64 metric tons to orbit. Other launch firms seeking to develop Falcon 9 alternatives are still working out some kinks. Rocket Lab's (RKLB) Neutron aims to launch either late this year or in 2027, while Firefly Aerospace (FLY) doesn't expect to fly its Eclipse until at least next year. Blue Origin's heavy-lift rocket, New Glenn, hasn't been launched since April because the company is fixing its launch pad. Stoke Space Technologies, a private firm developing "fully and rapidly reusable" rockets, on Tuesday said it had closed a $1 billion financing round, giving it $2.3 billion in overall capital. The company said it plans to make its first orbital launch attempt with its Nova Pathfinder rocket in early 2027. Stoke also revealed plans for a medium-lift vehicle it hopes to launch for the first time in 2029. "Every mature transportation system is built around fully reusable vehicles. It's the only way to reach the cost floor while scaling availability," Stoke co-founder Andy Lapsa said in a statement. "Space transportation will be no different." -William Gavin This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal. (END) Dow Jones Newswires 09-08-26 1239ET Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.