Balochistan: Who's In Control?

Key Takeaways: The author calls a recent Friday 'Bloody Friday': BLA's Fateh Squad ambushed an FC convoy at Ziarat Cross (18 soldiers dead, two vehicles destroyed, per BLA video) and STOS used an RCIED at Hajika, Surab (seven soldiers). Twenty-five dead in a day, he says, undercuts army claims that Baloch fighters are on the back foot. ISPR answered with IBOs in Mastung, Quetta, Sibi, and Kalat that it said killed 48 Baloch and TTP fighters. DG ISPR Chaudhry cited 31,000+ IBOs and 1,148 clashes in Balochistan Jan–July 2026 (~six a day). SATP-style tallies in the piece: claimed militant deaths rising (125 in 2023 → 948 by 5 Sept 2026) but SF deaths also rising (186 → 660 by Sept 2026). Chaudhry's metric—'2.5 terrorists per martyr'—is called a body-count doctrine, not control. The author's charge: many 'killed in encounters' are disappeared men dumped as fighters (Jaffar Express: BLA named 13; ISPR said 33; 23 corpses at Quetta Civil Hospital, 13 buried at night in Kasi). Families coerced to disown the missing. Munir's April 2025 'beat the hell out of them very soon' is unanswered more than a year later. Who runs Balochistan, and why are IBOs always after the convoy burns? These are the writer's accusations, not independently verified here. Bloody Friday With sarmachars [guerillas] of the Balochistan Liberation Army [BLA] carrying out two successful attacks, Friday turned out to be a particularly bad day for the Pakistani security forces. In the first incident that occurred at Ziarat Cross, BLA fighters belonging to its Fateh Squad ambushed a Frontier Corps [FC] convoy in broad daylight killing 18 soldiers and destroying two vehicles. In videos released by BLA, its sarmachars can be seen targeting the vehicles. The second incident took place in Hajika, Surab where BLA's Special Tactical Operations Squad [STOS] triggered a remote controlled improvised explosive device [RCIED] killing seven Pakistani soldiers and completely destroying their vehicle. Losing 25 soldiers in a single day belies Pakistan army's repeated claims that not only is the situation in Balochistan under control, but also that Baloch fighters are on the back-foot. Pak Army Hits Backs Soon after the Friday killings, Pakistan army's media wing Inter Services Public Relations [ISPR] claimed that the Pakistan army had carried out several intelligence based operations targeting hideouts in Mastung, Quetta, Sibi and Kalat districts of Balochistan. In these operations 48 fighters armed Baloch groups and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP] terrorists were reportedly killed which, if true, is definitely commendable. However, while the Pakistan army may view the elimination of nearly 50 Baloch fighters as redemption of sorts, unfortunately it doesn't come as any consolation for the bereaved family members of the dead soldiers. Au contraire, this incident once again throws up some very disturbing questions that need to be answered honestly, the first being, who is in actual control of Balochistan? Secondly, how is it that after every incident in which security forces suffer major loss of lives, the Pakistan army is able to neutralise so many fighters in intelligence based operations [IBOs] and that too within just a matter of 24 to 72 hours? But more on this later… Thirdly, if the Pakistan army's spy agency Inter Services Intelligence [ISI] can generate such accurate intelligence regarding exact location of armed fighters so quickly after every major attack, why can't it be proactive and undertake such IBO's before its rank and file are attacked and decimated? Director General [DG] of ISPR Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry maintains that deliberate attempts were being made to create a perception that the situation in Balochistan was deteriorating. In July end, he boasted that 'The way the kinetic prong of the counter-terrorism is maturing, responding and delivering, that is before you,' and provided details of military operations in Balochistan. However, rather than providing answers, his confused narrative has only raised more questions. According to DGISPR, during the period January to July this year, security forces carried out more than 31,000 intelligence based operations [IBOs] in Balochistan, and this province recorded 1,148 incidents of clashes with armed Baloch fighters. As these translate to an average of 164 incidents per month, or nearly six every day, it's amply clear that the 'kinetic prong' of counter-terrorism operations hasn't really been as effective as DGISPR would like us to believe. So what's the truth? Numbers Game The Pakistan army has always been a law unto itself in Balochistan. However, after seeing a perceptible rise in its brutality against innocent civilians and indiscriminate surge in enforced disappearances and extra judicial killings it's apparent that security forces in Balochistan have been given a carte blanche by Field Marshal Asim Munir. This isn't mere speculation but an inference backed by statistics. Field Marshal Munir became army chief in November 2022 and as such it would be fair to analyse the efficacy of his counter-terrorism policy from 2023 onwards. Data compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portalindicates that the number of armed Baloch fighters claimed to have been killed by Pakistani forces show an incremental increase [125 in 2023, 186 in 2024, 436 in 2025 and 948 till September 5, 2026], which is a positive for the security forces. However, fatalities amongst Pakistani security forces and law enforcement agencies too have risen significantly [186 in 2023, 315 in 2024, 751 in 2025, and 660 till September 2026]. Do, despite repeated claims of extraordinary success in counter-terrorism operations and normalcy, the reality is that Pakistani security forces have not been able to get the situation in Balochistan under control. So, it has conveniently changed the narrative by trying to convince the public that success in counter-terrorism operations should not be measured in terms of reduction in terrorism related incidents but by comparing fatalities suffered by Pakistani security forces vis-a-vis those of sarmachars. This has been acknowledged by Lt Gen Chaudhary's perverse boast that 'in 2025, for every martyr we were taking out minimum two [terrorists] and this year, we are taking out minimum 2.5 [terrorists].' Isn't this an irrefutable proof that counting body bags is Rawalpindi's sole criteria for assessing counter-terrorism performance? This brings us back to the earlier mentioned question-how does the Pakistan army manage to kill Baloch fighters in such large numbers after every major attack on its troops, and that too almost immediately? Here again, one doesn't have to look too far because a DGISPR has himself provided the answer. Readers would recall that during a media interaction session in 2019. When asked about enforced disappearances in Balochistan, the then DGISPR Maj Gen Asif Ghafoor nonchalantly replied, 'We don't wish that anyone should be missing. But when it is war, you have to do a lot of things- as they say, all is fair in love and war; war is very ruthless.' Coming from horse's mouth, isn't this revelation an incontrovertible confirmation that the Pakistan army routinely indulges in enforced disappearances? And so, isn't it obvious that this vile practice has tacit approval of Rawalpindi? It's no secret that the Pakistani security forces routinely present corpses of Baloch youth who had been forcibly disappeared earlier and extra-judicially executed as those of armed fighters killed in encounters. After the 2025 Jaffar Express attack, BLA published the particulars of 13 of its fighters who had been killed in this operation along with their photos. However, ISPR claimed that 33 BLA fighters had been killed but did not disclose their identity. And a week after the incident, 23 corpses were dumped in Quetta Civil Hospital. That the locals weren't allowed to identify and claim the dead bodies and the secret burial of 13 unidentified corpses in Quetta's Kasi Graveyard in the dead of the night by policemen clearly indicates that the deceased were victims of enforced disappearance who had been extra-judicially executed and passed off as BLA fighters killed in operations. Mention of Pakistani security forces orchestrating enforced disappearances and committing extra-judicial executions has even been recorded by Human Rights Watch [HRW] in its 2019 World Report on Pakistan. Facing severe criticism for killing innocent people and passing them off as Baloch fighters, the Pakistan army has found a cunning way out- presenting the dead as Baloch fighters. Family members are now being coerced into holding press conferences to publicly disown their missing relatives and even falsely label them as active fighters of proscribed groups or their supporters. That's the reason why Lt Gen Chaudhary has the confidence to publicly declare that Baloch fighters 'commit terrorism, get killed, and then they turn out to be on the very list of missing persons that they created. The data for both matches completely.' It would be pertinent to recall an incident from 2022 in which ISPR claimed that the army had eliminated nine Baloch fighters after a serving Lt Col was abducted and killed by BLA fighters. BLA rubbished this claim making it clear that it 'takes utmost pride in its struggle and the martyrdom of our comrades during this struggle… [and] announces all martyrdom of its members with great glory and honour. If any of our freedom fighters had lost their lives in this successful operation, we would have taken pride in making it public and paying rich tributes to them.' On the one hand we have the security forces secretly burying unidentified bodies at night, while on the other hand we find BLA unhesitatingly honouring their fallen comrades by posting their names and photos on its website. Who to believe is left to the reader. How 'Soon'? It was in April 2025 that Field Marshal Munir assured those attending the Overseas Pakistanis Conventionin Islamabad that he would 'beat the hell' out of the armed Baloch groups 'very soon.' More than a year has since elapsed, but the inordinately high casualty figures of security force personnel reveal that despite the field marshal's assurance to 'beat the hell' out of them 'very soon,' armed Baloch groups are neither down nor out. Will the field marshal therefore care to clarify as to how soon will be his 'very soon'? About Nilesh Kunwar Nilesh Kunwar is a retired Indian Army Officer who has served in Jammu & Kashmir, Assam, Nagaland and Manipur. He is a 'Kashmir-Watcher,' and now after retirement is pursuing his favorite hobby of writing for newspapers, journals and think tanks. View all posts by Nilesh Kunwar →