Republicans chances of losing Senate to Democrats, per Nate Silver forecast

Republicans have a new reason for concern heading into November, with one of the nation's leading forecasts showing them trailing in nine of the 12 competitive Senate races. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, which updated its averages Sunday, has Democrats ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, Minnesota, Maine, Ohio, New Hampshire, Michigan, Texas and Alaska. Republicans lead in Iowa, Kansas and Florida. Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats and hold all of their own to take control of the chamber, which Republicans currently control 53-47. Silver's averages show Democrats leading in exactly four GOP-held races, putting the party within reach of the four seats it needs, but with little room for error. Silver's findings echo the Cook Political Report, which has shifted six key battleground races in Democrats' favor since April. Texas and Iowa both moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up this week. While polling has not been kind for Republicans, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), said he was 'confident' Republicans would hold the Senate after the midterm elections were tallied. "I am very confident that we will be in the majority at the end of November this year. And let me tell you why. We are facing the most dangerous, radical, and frankly, Kristen, weird Democrats I've seen in my lifetime," Scott told NBC Meet the Press on an interview in late August. Democrats, on the other hand, argue that the Senate map gives them multiple paths to a majority. In a statement shared with Newsweek , the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) said "the party is well-positioned to win control of the chamber," pointing to its candidates and their focus on affordability and health care. To flip the Senate, Democrats face a difficult 2026 map. They need to defend every seat they hold while targeting Republican seats in Maine and North Carolina and competing in Trump-won states including Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. These are the races Democrats are counting on to make that happen. Democrat Roy Cooper served two terms as governor and has never lost an election. His opponent, Republican Michael Whatley, ran the Republican National Committee and has never been on a ballot. Silver's average gives Cooper the widest lead any Democratic challenger holds this cycle. "This is a must-win seat in the Senate for the Democrats if they are to have any chance of controlling the Senate," Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University, told Newsweek . An Elon University poll conducted July 23 to 31 had Cooper up 11 among likely voters, 53 percent to 42 percent, with a margin of error of 5.6 points. A High Point University survey from August 18 was tighter, 50 to 45. Carolina Journal polling this month showed a 12.5-point spread. Cooper has raised more than $35 million; Whatley has raised $16.1 million. Maria Cardona, a Democratic strategist at Dewey Square Group, traces the whole map back to recruiting. "Democrats won the Senate recruitment jackpot with Roy Cooper tossing his hat into the ring," Cardona told Newsweek . Whatley's campaign is unbothered by the polling, at least publicly. Democrats are "playing the same old playbook they've used since 2014 - lead in the summer and lose in November," spokesman DJ Griffin told Newsweek . Maine Maine Senator Susan Collins, a Republican seeking a sixth term, is the only Republican Senator representing a state Trump has never won. Her Democratic challenger is Troy Jackson, a logger and former president of the Maine Senate who was not expected to be the nominee. Jackson won the nomination at a July convention after Graham Platner dropped out following a sexual assault allegation, which he denied. Polling has been limited. A Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, surveying 1,000 registered voters August 6 to 10, found the race tighter, with Jackson up 2, 48 percent to 46 percent. Four percent were undecided. An earlier poll by Hart Research Associates, working for the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, found Jackson leading Collins 49 percent to 45 percent in a July 27-Aug. 1 poll. A University of New Hampshire poll in mid-July had Jackson ahead by 3 points. RealClearPolitics' average puts Jackson's lead at 2.3 points. Republicans have a simple response: Sara Gideon led most public polls in 2020 and still lost to Collins by 8.6 points. Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine, said Trump's tariffs are the biggest issue for Collins right now. "Just about anything Trump-related hurts Collins. I'm sure she wishes he had not done this," Brewer told Newsweek . He described Jackson as a "solid candidate" and said the race will be "very competitive." GOP strategist Alex Patton said the race is unusual because of the Democratic Party's struggles in the state. "The Democrats have been an absolute mess there, and yet still have a puncher's chance against a long-term incumbent," Patton told Newsweek . Sherrod Brown wants back the seat he lost to Bernie Moreno in 2024. Standing in the way is Ohio Senator Jon Husted, a Republican appointed in 2025 to serve out JD Vance's term. Whoever wins holds the seat only through 2028, then runs again. The state's polling is scattered. Fox News, surveying 1,008 registered voters August 6 to 10, put Brown up 8, with 40 percent of respondents naming inflation their top concern. Abacus Data had Brown up 6 on August 28, 52 to 46. Pollsmax's average still gives Husted a 1.1-point edge. "Senator Husted has won statewide on the undercard of the ticket as secretary of state and lieutenant governor. But he has never had to carry the ticket himself," David Niven, a professor at the University of Cincinnati's School of Public and International Affairs, told Newsweek . "He is polished and will probably avoid unforced errors. But he has completely tied himself to Trump, and will rise or fall on how Ohioans feel about Trump in 2026." Niven has also pointed out that Democrats running statewide in Ohio have won once since 2014. The winner was Brown. Texas has become one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 cycle. Democrats have not won a statewide race there since 1994, and Republicans have held both Senate seats for more than three decades. James Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin, is trying to change that against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton won the Republican nomination in May by defeating Senator John Cornyn with Trump's endorsement. Talarico entered the general election as the Democratic nominee after winning his primary. Recent polling shows a race that is unusually close for Texas, although the surveys disagree on which candidate is ahead. Silver's model rates Texas "lean Democrat" and flags it as the most likely tipping-point seat in the country, with a 13 percent chance of deciding the majority outright. Three recent surveys disagree about who is ahead and agree that it barely matters. Overton Insights, polling 1,167 likely voters in late August, found Talarico up half a point, 44 to 43.6, with 12.6 percent undecided. Emerson College and Nexstar Media had Paxton up 1. A University of Texas poll gave Talarico 3. Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who studies Latino voters and recently traveled through South Texas, told Newsweek Talarico's message on the economy has given him an opening with working-class voters. "He's talking to their economic concerns and anxieties, and then he references the corruption of the moment. That's what's really resonant." Patton, the Republican strategist, is skeptical that Talarico's own strengths explain the race. If Talarico wins, Patton argues, the story will be Paxton. "Paxton is such a flawed candidate; Talarico is an exceptionally good candidate," Patton said. "We are about to find out if candidate quality can overcome Texas's GOP structural advantages. If Talarico wins, the rout is on." Alaska may have the narrowest Democratic lead in the Senate battleground. Former Representative Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who was first elected in 2014. The race is also unusually complicated: Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, and two other candidates, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. and David Leslie, will also appear on the November ballot. Recent polling shows a close race, although Peltola has led most surveys. Alaska Survey Research's Aug. 20-23 poll of 1,495 likely voters put Peltola ahead 51 percent to 49 percent in the final ranked-choice round. A Data for Progress poll conducted July 28-Aug. 4 had Peltola ahead 53 percent to 47 percent in its final round. The New York Times /Siena College was the exception, putting Sullivan ahead 47 percent to 45 percent in June. Ivan Moore, who runs Alaska Survey Research, said his polling has consistently shown Peltola ahead in the ranked-choice round. "Every survey I've done has shown Peltola winning the ranked-choice round. The data has stayed very consistent despite untold millions of dollars being spent," Moore told Newsweek. Brandon Boylan, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, said the race reflects Alaska's unusual politics. The state has reliably backed Republicans in presidential elections, but voters have also supported Democrats and independents in congressional races. "In Alaska, party affiliation isn't everything," Boylan told Newsweek . He said voters are also focused on issues including the cost of living, federal jobs and funding, resource development and rural health care. Trump's standing could matter as well. Alaska Survey Research's latest statewide survey found 37 percent of Alaskans approved of Trump's job performance, while 55 percent disapproved. Moore said Sullivan's close association with Trump could be a liability. "He is Trump's boy, and unless he separates himself, he's going to lose," Moore said. Iowa is the only one of the six where Democrats are behind in Silver's average. Hinson, endorsed by Trump, faces state Representative Josh Turek, a Democrat and two-time Paralympic gold medalist, for the seat Senator Joni Ernst is giving up. No Democrat has won a Senate race here since 2008. Emerson College and Nexstar Media, polling 750 likely voters Aug. 31 to Sept. 1, gave Hinson a 5-point lead, 50 to 45, her best showing in months. Suffolk University had her up 4 in late August. The Emerson crosstabs complicate the picture: Turek led among independents by 2, and roughly 6 percent of Iowa voters said they would back Hinson for Senate and Democrat Rob Sand for governor on the same ballot. Trade is doing damage underneath the horse race. Emerson found 58 percent of Iowa voters opposed to tariffs on Canadian products and 71 percent worried about Canadian retaliation. A July Fox News poll had Trump viewed unfavorably in the state by 13 points, a 19-point swing off his standing there in November 2024. Cook Political Report moved the race from "lean Republican" to "toss-up" on Aug. 21. Steffen Schmidt, an emeritus professor of political science at Iowa State University, told Newsweek the environment in Iowa is "very flexible" and the seat is genuinely in play. "I'm sure Cook has its reasons for the change, but I don't buy it," Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, told Newsweek. "I think there's a chance the governor's race could go for Sand and the Senate race for Hinson. Both races will be determined by Iowa's No Party voters, and they are very capable of splitting their vote." Beyond the six main Democratic targets, several other races could matter. Silver has Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff leading by 8.1 points, Chris Pappas ahead by 2.9 in New Hampshire and Abdul El-Sayed ahead by 2.1 in Michigan. Michigan and New Hampshire are especially important because Democrats also have to protect their own seats while trying to flip Republican-held ones. Two other Republican-held seats are also closer than expected: Kansas and Florida. Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, but Silver has Republican Senator Roger Marshall leading Democrat Adam Hamilton by just 3.3 points. PollingSource's average of the two most recent surveys puts Marshall ahead by 1 point, 46 percent to 45 percent. An OSZ poll completed August 8 had Hamilton ahead 46 percent to 45 percent. Cook Political Report has moved the race from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican." Florida remains a much tougher Democratic target. State Representative Angie Nixon won the Democratic primary on August 18, defeating Alex Vindman, the better-funded candidate who had been the focus of much of the earlier polling. In a University of North Florida poll that tested Nixon, Republican Senator Ashley Moody led 50 percent to 42 percent. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball continue to rate the race solid or safe Republican. Matt Klink said Kansas is the Republican-held seat he would watch if the night turns against the GOP, although he does not expect that scenario. "Michigan and Texas are the wild cards that are more competitive. Kansas is a longshot worth watching if November 3rd turns out to be a wave election for the Democrats…which I believe is highly unlikely." Patton was less willing to make a specific prediction. "The only guarantee? Something unexpected and weird is likely to happen in November due to this environment," he said. Madrid sees the election as part of a broader change in how voters are being understood. "We're moving past the racial identity politics that defined last generation's Democrats," he said. "We're not seeing the world in black and white and brown. We're seeing it in blue collars and green cash." Election Day is November 3. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas