Now The Window Is Closed, It's Down To Coaching

Great to see Tom Wagner back at St Andrew's on Sunday, taking his seat in the stands after the stroke. He has been missed. Of all the unimportant things, football is the most important, and Sunday was what the phrase actually means. Wishing him all the best as he keeps recovering. KRO. Saturday's piecewas descriptive and diagnostic. What happened in the window and potentially why. This piece moves down the ladder. What's likely to happen across the next twenty matches and how to optimise the squad Davies actually has. How he uses it, what to watch before the window opens again and what the January brief looks like depending on what the next four months produce. The market did its bit. The rest is coaching. 4-2-3-1, because it is what Davies has coached his whole tenure. Reliance on the wide areas, because the quality defaults there and the crossing brief has not softened. Zone 14 near-empty (crucial central area outside the box), because nobody in a central pocket is asking for the ball with the intention of turning and playing forward. Stansfield at ten by default, because Fujimoto is not preferred and Ducksch isn't trusted with significant minutes. Run into the ground by December, because 100mph across 46 matches is not sustainable. Faster and more vertical than last season. The early numbers say so. The structural problem underneath is the same. The ball still routes wide. The cross is still the resolution. xG per shot sat at 0.10 last season. Five matches into this one, it is still 0.10. That is the forecast if the twenty matches are played the way the opening five have been. Now, I feel this is enough to get you 10th, 9th or even 8th, so maybe it's the correct strategy, but I think Blues could potentially do more. Everything below is what potentially changes it. Patrick Roberts led Blues on open-play expected assists last season at 0.23 per 90 - meaning anexpectedassist nearly every 90 minutes. He played ten through balls at 0.41 per 90, roughly a third of the whole team's through-ball output from one player. So far this season, Roberts is second in the whole of the Championship for expected assists per 90 - 0.39. So just over every other game, he'd be expected to get an assist in open play. In possibly the hardest opening fixtures of any team. Behind only Harry Whitwell of the Baggies - 0.40. By comparison, Vicente's is 0.11. Roberts gets to the byline, drifts inside, commits defenders, finds the progressive pass. Unpredictable, and reaches areas nobody else in the squad consistently reaches. It's easy to forget he only played 28 minutes in the first 4 games, getting his first start vs Southampton due to fitness issues with Gray and no back-up left winger before Millar's arrival. There is also something the numbers cannot fully capture too. Teammates look for him, they give him the ball and they know it will be secure and something will happen, so they gamble and make that forward run. I think Stanno especially enjoys playing with him, you can see it. That trust shows up in the xA and the through-ball rate but also in the way the attack has a different texture when he is on the pitch. Just look at his ball for Stanno's goal vs Wolves. And his cross for Priske's header against Southampton. Roberts was inside the box when he delivered it. Dribbling, defenders unsure whether he was going inside, outside, to shoot, cut back or drive it across. Then the ball into the six-yard box, Priske arriving. That is not a cross in the sense a previous piece was about -26 crosses, 4 completedwas about slow deliveries from wide areas into a set defence. Roberts' ball was the opposite. Inside the box, on the move, back four scrambling, delivery into the most dangerous area with little time to react. Watch Birmingham with Roberts in the side and he can go either way, but the value is that he drifts centrally. Without him, the ball routes wide because nobody in a central pocket is asking for it with the intention of turning and playing forward. He lost his place after Vicente arrived last winter but, in my view, was Birmingham's best player before that. A great footballer the coaching staff need to find a role for this season. Football is about risk and reward. Roberts gives you plenty of both. The reward side has not been given enough time on the pitch. Selection is a coaching call and it is one of the most consequential ones Davies makes across these next twenty matches. What it gives you: a central source, Zone 14 populated, an unpredictable pass into the box that nobody else in the squad plays at that volume. What it costs you: Vicente out of the starting eleven on the right, and a defensive floor that dips because Roberts does not press or defend like the alternatives. Fujimoto is a ten. Forty-five Championship minutes to his name across last season. He was signed to be the connector and has not been given the chance to be one. Saturday's pieceargued the absence of a signing at the ten might have been the correct call, in part because what was available in the market was not good enough to justify the outlay, and in part because two players already at the club carry that profile. Fujimoto is one of them. Why buy another? The window closed without a settled ten arriving, so the answer has to come from within. Davies has not yet given Fujimoto a genuine run to find out whether the profile fits the shape. That decision is available now. What it gives you: the profile the squad is missing at ten, and an answer to the January question by December. What it costs you: Stansfield either moved to nine (which pushes Priske out) or to the bench, and a genuine run of matches to find out whether the fit is real or not. Stansfield cannot play every match and every minute, so an alternative is needed either way. Solís had played every minute of the league season and 90 vs Brentford in the League cup. Now he is out. A knock at the end of the Southampton draw, not available for Wolves and likely no Norwich or Derby, a week to ten days per Davies. Iwata and Paik are the only fit central midfielders left. Bird and Gardner-Hickman are also in the treatment room. That is what happens when one player carries too much on his own across a Championship season. The load goes on and eventually a knock arrives. Stansfield at ten is the same setup. Run him across 46 matches and the burnout, fatigue, injury and poorer performances inevitably arrive. Manage his minutes or the ten goes to Fujimoto, Ducksch or Bird whether Davies prefers it or not. The lesson from the Solis injury sits underneath Stansfield too. A squad this thin in certain areashasto use the alternatives before the injury forces the choice. The Wolves goal was special. El Rifle, Walter Pandiani would have been proud. The kind of moment that reminds you why we paid so much for him. Stansfield is a good footballer. The open question is whether the ten is where he is at his best.Saturday's piececovered his instincts in detail. The short version: he plays at 100mph, break, arrive, run, finish, press. At nine that is exactly what you want. At ten the role asks for something else. Dropping to receive with his back to goal, waiting for the runner, playing the reset pass, having the vision and touch to find the forward before he moves. Those are different skills, not lesser ones, and they take time to develop. Best evidence that the ten is a work in progress rather than a settled position: the club apparently spent the summer trying to sign one. Mehmeti, Gelhardt, others linked. If Stansfield at ten was the answer, that search does not happen. It happened because the shape needs a connector and asking your best young forward to be one while he is still learning the role is a big ask across 46 matches. What it gives you: the squad's most reliable young forward broadening his game, and a genuine ten profile developing without a signing. What it costs you: potentially a less effective Stansfield in the short term, and the risk that he loses the instincts that make him lethal at nine (making the run, break, finish). I know Ducksch generates a lot of mixed feelings, not least because of the off-field issues, but also his role on the pitch. Let's be honest, he's a sublime footballer, but he's not suited to Championship football. It's one of the most physical leagues in the world, relentless fixtures, wrong side of 30 and no winter off. In a CD team, it requires everyone to pull their weight, especially when pressing. It's unsurprising the club tried to offload him. However, he's here now, at least until January, so how to use him? What he does do, better than anyone else in the squad, is finish. Last season,his xGOT per shot of 0.16 (shot quality metric) was identical to Haji Wright's, the division's joint second-top scorer. Wright played 600 more minutes and scored seven more goals. On average, Ducksch also shoots from better positions than the rest of the Blues forwards, he's more self sufficient than others. If I'm honest, I'm not sure what I'm trying to say here, as I feel Ducksch is detrimental to our overall cohesion and functionality as aTEAM, however, there's no denying he can finish better than anyone in the squad. And goals win games. A bit of a conundrum. Staying with the 4-2-3-1 is a legitimate call. It is what Davies has coached for his whole tenure at Blues, barring a few exceptions. It is what Coventry won the league in and Ipswich went up with. The players know it. The staff know it. The floor is known. The drawbacks come with it. Predictability. Overuse of the wings. Crossing volume. Lack of #10 like Mehmeti or Rudoni. That is what the opening five matches have already shown and what last season showed for 46 more. Good enough for tenth, at least. Whether it gets the best players on the pitch at the same time and shifts the dial is a different question. Saturday's pass maps put a visual on it. Southampton 159 passes, Wrexham 183, Bristol City 311, Zone 14 near-empty in all three. Nobody in the middle is getting the ball and passing it in the most valuable pocket on the pitch. That is what the shape has to solve, whatever label it carries. Sunday's match makes it another. Same pattern, harder opposition. Blues and Wolves attempted almost identical pass volumes across the 90 - 221 to 215. What separates the two is where the ball went. Blues left Zone 14 largely alone again and Wolves used it slightly more. Cesc Fàbregas said something after Como's win over Napoli that has stuck with me. 'We can't always play our way.' His broader point in an interview around the same time was that coaches confuse philosophy with method. Philosophy is what you believe. Method is how you solve the problem in front of you. Football is ultimately about solving problems in 90 minutes, rather than being wedded to a philosophy. I often feel Birmingham play the same way every match, with little to no surprises or variation. You kinda know what you're gonna get, no matter who we play. I remember when Middlesbrough came to Blues last season. Hellberg picked anunconventionalformation, Targett, the DVB, scored twice from left wing back and Blues did not quite know what to do. I'd love it if Blues could do that to the opposition once in a while. They look at the teamsheet and think, 'we didn't prepare for this'. Back in January when Vicente signedI sketched three ways to fit him and Roberts in the same starting eleven, including a 3-4-2-1 with both on the pitch. People said at the time it would be fine, alternate them depending on the opponent. None of it happened. Roberts lost his place and hardly played during the second half of the season. The risk outlined, an inability to play both enough, materialised. Fair warning: I am not a coach. What follows is a fan sketching options a squad this deep should have on the table. Skip to the January section if formation talk is not your thing. If a subscription isn't for you and you'd like to support the work, you canbuy me a chicken balti pie on Ko-fi. The 3-4-2-1 gets Vicente on if he plays right wing back rather than winger. It gets Fry in his Middlesbrough position from last season, where Boro got their best football out of him. It gets Roberts on the pitch in central pockets inthat Zone 14 describedin the previous article. The same eleven shifts between phases within the same match: 4-4-1-1 out of possession, 3-4-2-1 in build-up, 3-2-4-1 when in possession. Same players, different answers to whatever the opposition is doing. Coch/Lund/Millar on the left, Vicente/Laird/Bright on the right. Kanya/Stanno/Roberts/Bird in the advanced roles. Solís and one of Bird, Paik or Iwata in the pivot. That is the unpredictability argument made practical. Not randomness. Drilled variety from a settled group. What it gives you: Vicente and Roberts in the same eleven, Fry in the position Boro got his best football out of him in, Zone 14 populated by two tens rather than one. What it costs you: Whoever plays left-wing/right wing-back doing a job neither has done consistently at Championship level, and a management team coaching something unfamiliar. The floor is lower than the 4-2-3-1 if it breaks down. It could be catastrophic, but it could also be transformative. Priske/Stanno through the middle, Vicente/Roberts right, Gray/Millar left, a midfield three of Solís, Bird, Iwata and Paik. Two advanced 8s which replace the ten as the connector rather than the ten being bought in. Fàbregas's Como have played 4-3-3 without a settled ten too, and the connector came from the eight receiving in half-spaces. Bird, Paik and Solís can all play the advanced eight, Iwata at a push. The connector is a role, not specific player or shirt number. Nobody in the opposition midfield knows which of the three is arriving. What it gives you: the connector role solved from the eight rather than the ten, central midfield depth actually used, Bird's Championship passing profile in the position it was scouted for, and a genuine source of unpredictability the shape has been missing. What it costs you: one of Vicente, Roberts, Gray, Millar, Stansfield or Priske out of the starting eleven, and a coaching brief that lives or dies on the rotations being drilled. Give Roberts the free role. Argentina around Messi. De Paul said something along the lines of 'we play for Messi' at the recent World Cup. Could we hear Max Bird say the same about Roberts? Maybe. Do not tell him where to be. Solís/Bird/Iwata/Paik cover the ground behind him. Vicente holds the right, Gray or Millar the left, Priske/Stanno in the 9. Roberts drifts, receives, plays the through ball. Havoc. What it gives you: the squad's most creative player in the position most likely to unlock the Zone 14 problem, and the four fit central midfielders doing the covering work behind him. What it costs you: everything if Roberts gets injured or has an off day, and a coaching brief that most Championship squads would not execute cleanly. Allardyce was a pioneer! Not everything has to run through the middle. Getafe under Bordalás are the most direct side in Europe's big five. Last season they had the most fouls, most aerial duels, most balls hoofed into the box. It got them into the Conference League and it got the best football ofVázquez'scareer out of him. Priske and Vázquez together. Two big men on the last line. Two sitting midfielders mopping up and Vicente and Stansfield wide, getting in and around the strikers. Skip the midfield, get it forward, win the header, win the second ball, get bodies in the box. Not pretty and as Brian Clough said 'if the good Lord had wanted football played in the sky, he'd have put grass up there'. But a real tool against a smaller or less physical back four, or when the match state demands Blues chase a goal in the last ten minutes. Or if Blues are struggling to by-pass an opponents' press, go over it. Vázquez was signed to be effective at exactly this. He was called the battering ram after all. What it gives you: a Plan B that looks nothing like Plan A, and both big strikers on the pitch when the match needs it. What it costs you: the central creativity argument this whole piece has been about, and a shape that lives or dies on second-ball recovery. None of these are recommendations, they are options a squad this deep should have on the table. Formations are not what they look like on a team sheet anyway.Stats Perform's tracking work found 17 distinct in-possession shapes and 13 out-of-possession shapes across their sample. Realistically, this stays 4-2-3-1. Better to have thought about the alternatives now than to be reaching for them in November or when injuryt hits. Stansfield cannot play every minute at ten. Fry will want to play. Vicente and Roberts will want more minutes than they currently get. The financial context suggests potentially a smaller window rather than a larger one. Two windows of £32.8m net spend without meaningful sales to offset it. The January budget is unlikely to stretch to two starters, but who knows? Profile before names, always. The ten.If Fujimoto has not been coached into the role by December, this remains the priority. Championship-proven ideally, can control tempo, plays the pass through the line.Mehmetiat Ipswich, if he is not a regular there.Gelhardtremains a possibility if he doesn't get minutes at Hull.Segečićat Portsmouth.Cantwell at Blackburn fits the profile too. Twine at Bristol City remains a name if the finances work. A wide finisher.This will likely wait until next summer, but the work needs to start now. Millar could sign permanently and Gray enters the last year of his contract. A decision will have to be made on both. Either way, the June benchmark still holds. xGOT per 90 above 0.20 (shot quality), shot volume ideally above two per 90. A player who converts chances rather than adds to the crossing delivery count. Saturday's piece put the gap in numbers: Gray 5, Roberts 4, Vicente 3 last season, against a Championship promotion-level wide-forward norm of 10 to 16 goals.Bjerkeboat Sirius is still a top name on the list, Allsvenskan translation risk acknowledged. The profile is a wide finisher, not another wide creator. The squad has enough of those. Depth at eight.Leonard is out until early 2027. Bird's calf has already shown up. TGH out. Solís has had a knock too. Four fit central midfielders across a 46-match season is thin. Loan cover would close the gap without touching the budget significantly. From thesummer wishlist, onlyCastillo(Midtjylland, 21) andYegoian(Excelsior, 22) remain. Castillo is physical, clinical when he arrives in the box, fits the depth question directly. Yegoian already has two goals and two assists in his first four Eredivisie games this season which followed his first senior Georgia caps in June. I'm a big fan. The others scouted last season have moved on:Devineto Preston,De Keersmaeckerto Bristol City,McGlynnto Stoke,Berhalterto Middlesbrough,Diopback at Monaco,Jørgensento Toulouse,Titraouito Lens. The window is done. What Davies controls now is selection, shape and the coaching briefs he sets when the match plan stops producing. Every option named above is available without a signing. None of it requires January. One number ties all of it together. xG per shot sat at 0.10 last season. Five matches into this one, it is still 0.10. One of the key metrics that needs to move, every promoted team last season reached 0.12. If a subscription isn't for you and you'd like to support the work, you canbuy me a chicken balti pie on Ko-fi. xB's Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.