Germany, gerrymandering, and the Supreme Court's looming mail-in voting decision

It's not unreasonable to say that the things that are happening this week will determine how the next 2-3 years of our lives will go. Not just in the United States, but globally. Because first we have theapparent successof the right-wing AfD party in Germany, winning a significant victory in a small state election (morehere). Now I don't need to be an expert in German politics to look at the party leader—a guy promising 'mass deportations now'—and spot a rhyme when I hear one. Because while we may not be able to directly affect elections in Germany, my takeaway from this election is to recognize one of the catastrophic symptoms of the nationalist wave in the United States (that I think crested here about a year ago) is how it spreads like a tsunami around the world. Just like a group of friends deciding to start backstabbing each other, when one nation, especially a powerful one, turns to nationalism, it sends a signal to the rest of the world that they're on their own. And being alone is a scary place to be. And when people turn to fear, they become paranoid and hostile to change, resulting in their further withdrawal and the accelerating of the self-perpetuating downward spiral of isolationism. The good news is, the nationalism wave in the United States is cooked, and I think once the world sees the page turn toward sanity here in the next few months, the nationalist aftershocks will start to subside. The second thing I'm looking at—and really, laughing at—isnew reportingfrom Politico which says Republicans are quietly panicking over the fact that their dummymandering is about to backfire on them. Which, for my favorite long-time watchers, I predicted would happen a year ago ;) It turns out, the seats they drew to be safe, including the Latino-heavy districts in Texas, are now shockingly competitive, and in many cases expected to go to Democrats. Meanwhile, the deep-red seats they watered down to chase Democratic districts are now suddenly at risk too. Whoops! Couldn't have happened to more deserving people. Next, I'm watchinga critical House racein California. Because after wasting cycle after cycle challenging a moderate Republican incumbent with moderate Democrats, democratic voters bucked the party establishment and nominated a true progressive fighter named Randy Villegas to challenge incumbent Republican David Valadao. The reason I'm watching this race in particular is not just because it's been on the perennial 'we might flip this one!' list for something like a decade. It's because it's going to test a theory I've held since the rise of Trump, which says that even 'moderate' voters in swing districts care more about finding someone with the passion to fight for what they believe than they care about finding a candidate who takes what the media calls 'moderate' positions. If people have the tepid status quo, and the alternative choice is the temu status quo, they're going to stay with what they know. Because what's the difference? But if you draw a real line and give them a real choice, then you have the chance to actually change minds. And the future. Lastly, our most pressing topic: this week isthe week that will decide the future of mail-in voting, not just for the midterms, but potentially through 2028. And right now, I just keep imagining Donald Trump running 1.7 miles per hour down the tarmac, sweaty drumsticks falling out of his pants, melted foundation draining down from wattle to udder, with 15 planes stacked up ready to takeoff and one already in the air, and he's waving his tiny little hands over his head while screaming 'None of the planes can take off until they all get my special new tires!! Get back down here! You have to have Trump tires!!!' Meanwhile, the pilots are like 'Yeah we've got an angry orange snail chasing us at takeoff … we're just gonna ignore it.' And Judge Indira Talwani in Boston is running air traffic control and she's like 'Yeah bro, you're good.' Because the fact is, North Carolinajust mailed over 50,000 ballots, and the process is already in motion in a bunch more states. And Trump's own DOJ and existing Postal Service rules state that even if the Supreme Court Rules in favor of Trump (more on that in a moment),any ballots already mailed will not be affected. And the states know it. So they're all rushing to mail as many ballots as possible, knowing any ballot they get out the door now is a ballot they don't have to deal with later. And for the Supreme Court, you have to love the situation they're in. The election is already underway. The largest paper vendors haveliterally said there isn't enough paper stockavailable in the United States to replace the tens of millions of envelopes that have already been printed in time for the midterms. The states have said they don't have systems that can do what Trump wants them to do. The investigators have determinedat least 47,000 timesthat there has never been any evidence of widespread voter fraud. And there's the little thing where the Constitution says states determine the time, place, and manner of running elections. This is an open book test. And yet the Supreme Court is sweating like that comic book guy looking at two buttons because they're still that afraid of what Trump will tweet about them if, and I think when, they rule against him. The fact is, this freight train is running. And now the question is less if Trump will get his way, and more a question of if he considered—once these millions of mail-in ballots are delivered—how many of the people who voted by mail are going to vote for the party that stands for the guy who is actively trying to strip them of that right. Because one way or another, because of you, the midterms are going to be too big to rig. And I for one cannot wait to see his epic, slow burn truth social meltdown in the 24 hours after the election, as he realizes his power is being drained from him, and there's nothing he can do to stop it. I don't do paywalls, so if you like my work, consider supporting as a paid subscriber!