Victoria 27,000 tradies short, at risk of 4000 new homes wipe out

Victoria is facing an almost 27,000 tradies shortage within the decade that is expected to drive up housing repair costs and wipe out 4000 new home builds. Master Builders Victoria have calculated the concerning figure based on current training levels contrasted with demand for work to be done as the state's population grows. They found while the construction workforce pipeline is already at a 20,070 deficit, by 2035 the state will need 26,720 more tradies than it is projected to have. RELATED: Vic home affordability gets worse despite price plunge Melb hotspots for $100k+ home price cuts revealed National housing target falters as home approvals fall across Australia This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. End of dialog window. This is a modal window. This modal can be closed by pressing the Escape key or activating the close button. moreless The state's current building workforce rose by about 9180 people in 2025, not even a third of what was needed. That's only expected to rise to 12,600 by 2035, with MBV estimating the shortfall against what is needed will cost the state about 4000 new home builds. It's a substantive blow to state government hopes of building 80,000 homes a year in order to minimise knock on effects of housing undersupply to the cost of buying or renting a home, with Premier Ben Carroll facing an election in less than three months. And it has already been a core reason behind increasing costs for building homes, which Australian Bureau of Statistics data released last month showed was 50 per cent more than it was before Covid. Only NSW is facing a bigger shortfall, expected to top 30,520 in the same timeline and already running behind by 22,800. Alarmingly, these are just baseline figures for the most likely path forward, with other scenarios involving a cut back on financial support for apprentice training and no further government efforts to bolster the workforce leading to a 28,270 tradie shortfall by 2035. It comes as Victoria's parliament is this week expected to debate a bill that will require apprenticeship trainers be licensed, though has yet to clarify to the building industry if they will face additional costs or how they will be certified. MBV's chief of public affairs Dr Corrie Williams said the Victorian government needed to be 'making it easier, not harder, for employers to take on and train apprentices'. 'Adding another layer of paperwork will only increase complexity and create more barriers for businesses,' Dr Williams said. The Education and Training Reform Amendment Bill, 2026, which will require professionals hiring trainees or apprentices to have a license to do so, is slated for its third reading in the Victorian parliament this week. Dr Williams said the resumption of debate would take place 'despite industry concerns about both the process and the practical impact of these changes'. Builder Casey Lee has spent 16 'challenging' months trying to find an apprentice that was the right fit for his custom home building and renovating business, Bruce Lee Builder. Mr Lee said the MBV numbers were no surprise and that he was encountering a concerning number of apprentices who were looking to complete an apprenticeship and then move on to another career, often in mining or logistics. The result, was he was expecting the cost of renovation and even repair work to spike. 'Little old ladies will be calling up to fix their front door that's sticking, and it will cost them$2000, that's where it's headed,' Mr Lee said. The Mildura-based builder is also expecting impacts to home building. 'They are already importing flatpack homes from China … so you will see more flatpack or transportable homes, and fewer quality tradesmen and quality homes — or you will be waiting one or two years for a build to start,' Mr Lee said. Asked about the upcoming licensing of apprentice trainers, Mr Lee said 'we absolutely don't need any more red tape around us trying to build more homes'. With a third-year apprentice and another doing a school-based apprenticeship with them at the moment, the builder said their business model had always been to train up trades people and to keep them on as a part of the firm for a career. 'But it's very challenging now to retain apprentices once they complete the qualification,' he said. He was also seeing shortages of roofing specialists, tilers and brick layers — leaving many of them who were qualified charging high rates at present. At present Victorian tradie training entitles the business providing the training to a $3500 rebate that is applied against their apprentices hourly rate over four years — which can be wiped out by lost time on a handful of small mistakes or damaged tools. 'So there's little to no incentive to employ apprentices other than if you want to bring them through and retain them for business growth,' Mr Lee said. Sign up to the Herald Sun Weekly Real Estate Update. Click here to get the latest Victorian property market news delivered direct to your inbox. MORE: Now illegal: Pet owners forced into $2k bill Melbourne's ultimate spring real estate guide Inside AFL great Ron Barassi's $2m Melb 'time capsule' Originally published as Victoria 27,000 tradies short, at risk of 4000 new homes wipe out