KeyBanc Delivers Stark Warning on Apple Stock Ahead of iPhone 18 Launch

Apple AAPL shares are in focus as investors weigh fresh concerns about pricing and demand ahead of the company's Sept. 9 iPhone 18 event. KeyBanc Capital Markets kept an Underweight rating and a $250 price target. The brokerage sees higher production costs creating pressure on Apple's gross margin unless the company passes those expenses to customers. KeyBanc expects the lineup to include the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max and a first foldable model, along with new Apple Watch and AirPods products. It projects combined iPhone 18 builds of about 80 million units across fiscal 2026's fourth quarter and fiscal 2027's first quarter, compared with roughly 91 million a year earlier. The firm estimates prices of $1,249 for the Pro, $1,399 for the Pro Max and $2,199 for the foldable device. It also noted Apple shares have historically declined around iPhone launches, averaging losses of 0.72% on announcement days and 1.22% five sessions later. For the stock, KeyBanc's view suggests higher prices may support revenue but could weigh on volumes and margins.