Guess what, Juneau? Growth still delivers.

Angela Rodell. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Independent) By Angela Rodell Here's some genuinely good news. Juneau just proved something this year that's worth celebrating. Back in the spring, the city was bracing for a difficult budget year. New food and utility tax exemptions were phasing in, and the forecast was revised sharply downward, from a budgeted $70.1 million to a projected $61 million. That kind of drop naturally raises concerns, and fueled calls for additional taxes that will appear on this October's ballot. Then the year happened. And Juneau delivered. As of the latest numbers released in August, actual sales tax revenue came in at $66.9 million, not the feared $61 million, but almost exactly the $67.3 million the city would have expected if the exemptions had only a modest effect. We finished just $3.2 million under the original budget, a gap of only 4.6%. The recovery was visible throughout the year. Revenue ran about $1.5 million behind in the first quarter, $1.1 million behind in the second, and by January through March, basically caught up. City finance staff have pointed to inflation, higher fuel prices especially, as a big part of why, and they're not wrong. Some of the improvement is simply a function of higher prices: the same gallon of fuel or the same barge-load of goods costs more this year than it did when the budget was built, and that shows up in sales tax collections whether or not the underlying economy is doing more. But inflation doesn't tell the whole story. Our cruise passenger numbers have been flat to slightly down the past two years, and this year's new daily caps were built on purpose to keep that volume steady, so more tourists didn't do this either. What inflation alone doesn't explain is a private sector at an all-time employment high, even as total regional job counts have stayed flat. Or an unemployment rate of 2.9%, the tightest it's been in years, or a decade-long shift where tourism-related jobs are up 37%, mining up 32%, health care up 21%, and professional and business services up 10%, even as state government and retail jobs have shrunk. Rising fuel prices can explain a bigger number on a receipt. They can't explain more people flying in and out of Juneau, a tighter labor market, or 10 years of the local economy rebuilding itself around industries that are growing. Both things are true at once: inflation helped this year's revenue numbers and Juneau earned them. That is the lesson I hope we take from this year. We did not need to be as scared as we were. The worst-case number that shaped a lot of this spring's budget conversation turned out to be off by almost $6 million. Even after accounting for inflation, the underlying story is one of a local economy that performed better than expected. And that's why I believe this is the moment to lean into growth rather than overlook it. This fall, voters are being asked to approve a 1% seasonal sales tax and raise the mill rate ceiling to 12 mills. Proponents have highlighted recreation projects such as the Dimond Park Field House, Augustus Brown Pool, and Treadwell Ice Arena. But it is important to remember that once those revenues flow into the city's general fund, future Assemblies can allocate them to whatever priorities they determine are most important. At the same time, Juneau faces a much more immediate challenge than anything being debated at the Capitol: the Mendenhall Valley's glacial outburst floods. The costs of temporary flood protection have already reached into the millions, and the price tag for a permanent solution remains uncertain. What is clear is that significant local resources will be required in the years ahead. That reality is one reason I believe growth deserves a larger place in this conversation. CBJ has real needs, and Southeast Alaska's overall job count has remained largely flat, with federal workforce reductions expected to create additional headwinds in 2026. Yet this year's results tell a more encouraging story. Beneath the effects of inflation is a private sector at record employment that outperformed a gloomy forecast in a year when cruise tourism volume did not grow at all. That is evidence of a community that is still capable of growing its way toward a stronger fiscal future. Every new business, job, investment, and visitor expands the economic base that supports public services without requiring higher tax rates. The more growth we encourage and capture today, the more capacity we will have to address tomorrow's challenges, including the very real costs that may emerge from the Mendenhall River. Rather than assuming higher taxes are the only path forward, this year's experience suggests we should first ask whether stronger economic growth can do more of the work. Juneau's economy performed better than expected. That's not a reason for complacency, but it is a reason for confidence. • Angela Rodell is a former CEO of the Alaska Permanent Fund Corp. and commissioner of the Alaska Department of Revenue who is currently a business consultant and member of Juneau International Airport's board of directors. Her column appears the second Tuesday of every month.