Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was warned of a potential large-scale attack from Hamas nearly two weeks before October 7. He refused to pass that warning down to anyone else in the government.
Haaretz reported that Israeli intelligence agency Shin Bet was warned on September 15, 2023, about the threat of an impending "earthquake" and a "huge surprise" from Hamas, a warning that was relayed to Netanyahu. The defense ministry held a meeting two days later, but no decisions were made. After seeing a lack of action, United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed spoke to Netanyahu directly for 45 minutes, trying desperately to convince him of the likelihood of an attack from Hamas after Netanyahu had scuttled talks earlier that year. Netanyahu had reduced the amount of Palestinian prisoners he agreed to release and postponed the committee intended to facilitate the prisoner and hostage exchanges—leading frustrated Hamas head Yaya Sinwar to end negotiations entirely in September, just weeks before the October 7 attack.
This breakdown led to a further destabilization of relations, with bin Zayed warning Netanyahu that "something there is about to explode." But Netanyahu assured him that he was ready for anything.
"The emir hoped that despite his reserved response, Netanyahu would take the message seriously and take action," an adviser told Haaretz. And yet Netanyahu chose not to brief anyone in the IDF or Mossad about bin Zayed's warning. About 1,200 Isrealis were killed on October 7, and their deaths that were then used to justify a genocide of nearly 75,000 Palestinians.
"If we had known about the warnings, there's a chance it would have given more weight to the first message we received from Sinwar," a senior Shin Bet official told Haaretz. "Perhaps it would also have clarified what was behind his sudden withdrawal from the talks in early September. It's possible we would have put two and two together and reached a completely different conclusion from the one we did, one that would have changed our entire assessment picture."
This report of Netanyahu's prior knowledge of an impending attack and his lack of action against it elicited countless reactions.
"Netanyahu bears personal and direct responsibility for the failure that led to the deaths of thousands of Israelis on his watch. His ignoring of the warnings is criminal negligence, and therefore he is doing everything to prevent the establishment of a state commission of inquiry that will expose the truth," former Israeli Prime Minister and opposition leader Naftali Bennet wrote on X. "He did not go to the field, did not warn the heads of the security system, did not prepare Israel for the attack, and did not convene the cabinet."
"Netanyahu cannot continue to serve in his position for another minute, and he certainly is not capable of fixing it," Bennett continued. "If we do not replace this government, we will never know the truth that will only be revealed in a state commission of inquiry, because they are preventing its establishment out of fear of discovering the terrible truth."
"It's crucial to remember that the Nova music festival was supposed to end on Friday, October 6, but the organizers reached out to the IDF to get permission to extend it for an extra day. We know that warnings were everywhere at that point, yet the IDF approved the extension and added no security," Drop Site News's Ryan Grim wrote. "Now we know, from new reporting in Haaretz, that Netanyahu had explicitly been warned 10 days earlier that Hamas was planning an 'earthquake' of an attack.'
"Insane story. He was warned two weeks before the Oct. 7th attacks by the Emiratis about an imminent attack by Hamas—and did nothing," Zeteo's Medhi Hasan wrote. "No wonder Netanyahu has always wanted to drag out this war and block any chance of a proper independent investigation into Oct. 7th."
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