Pakistan's climate vulnerability underscores urgency of global emissions cuts, experts warn

Abdul Samad Tariq ISLAMABAD, Nov 08 (APP):Pakistan's growing exposure to floods, heatwaves, glacial melting and other climate-related hazards highlights the urgent need for deeper global greenhouse gas emission cuts, as the world risks exceeding the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold for decades, according to a new United Nations assessment. Despite contributing less than one per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, facing mounting threats to its agriculture, water resources, livelihoods and economic stability. https://www.app.com.pk/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/WhatsApp-Video-2026-11-08-at-7.40.26-PM-1.mp4 The United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return estimates that global greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels, to limit temperature overshoot and eventually return global warming to 1.5C by 2100. Mohammad Saleem Shaikh, a climate policy advocacy and governance expert and member of the Climate and Environmental Change Group at the University of Portsmouth, told APP that the opportunity to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5C without or with limited overshoot had passed, but the extent and duration of the overshoot could still be reduced. For Pakistan, the stakes are particularly high as rising temperatures and changing weather patterns threaten an already climate-sensitive economy. The devastating 2022 floods, which affected around 33 million people, displaced millions and caused more than $30 billion in damage and economic losses, demonstrated the scale of the country's vulnerability. The risks extend from extreme monsoon rainfall and urban flooding to prolonged heatwaves, water stress and accelerated melting of glaciers in the northern mountain ranges. Saleem Shaikh said further warming could have devastating consequences for ecosystems, biodiversity and human societies, making deep and sustained emission reductions essential across all major sectors of the global economy. The UNEP assessment projects that even under the lowest-emissions pathway, global temperatures could peak at 1.7C to 1.8C above pre-industrial levels around the middle of the century before declining towards 1.5C by 2100. The report estimates that a pathway offering roughly a 50 per cent chance of returning warming to 1.5C by the end of the century remains possible, but would require unprecedented reductions in emissions. However, existing national climate commitments remain insufficient. Even if countries fully implement their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), global emissions would decline by only 5 to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 to 15 per cent by 2035, compared with 2025 levels. Under current policies, the world is heading towards approximately 2.8C of warming by the end of the century. Full implementation of existing NDCs could bring this projection down to 2.6C, while the most optimistic scenario, incorporating additional net-zero targets, would still result in around 2.1C of warming. For climate-vulnerable countries such as Pakistan, the widening gap between commitments and actual emission reductions raises concerns about the effectiveness of international climate action and the adequacy of support for adaptation and resilience. Shaikh said governments needed to move beyond climate announcements and translate their commitments into measurable action through stronger policies, renewable energy investment, improved energy efficiency and a decisive shift away from fossil fuels. The report notes that global renewable electricity capacity has expanded three times faster than anticipated since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, while solar photovoltaic deployment has grown seven times faster than expected. Nevertheless, renewable electricity capacity needs to reach three times its 2025 level by 2035 and 4.5 times by 2040. Energy intensity must also decline by at least 30 per cent by 2035 and 40 per cent by 2040. Methane emissions, meanwhile, must fall by at least 25 per cent by 2035 and 40 per cent by 2040, alongside a rapid transition away from coal, oil and gas and efforts to halt deforestation. Drawing on more than 220 policy evaluations, the assessment found that electricity-sector measures reduced emissions by an average of 9 per cent, while economic instruments, including carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes, achieved reductions of 5 to 13 per cent in the sectors examined. Returning temperatures to 1.5C after an overshoot would also require removing and permanently storing around 320 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide during this century, equivalent to approximately eight years of global CO2 emissions at 2024 levels. Shaikh said every fraction of a degree of warming avoided mattered, particularly for vulnerable communities and countries already experiencing the consequences of climate change.