Ampere: Linear TV leans on scripted TV series during Q1

Linear television commissioning has held up better than streaming in the post-Peak TV era, with U.S.-produced linear orders declining at a slower rate than video-on-demand orders, according to new research from Ampere Analysis. Linear TV orders fell 26 percent from 1,773 to 1,304 between 2022 and 2025, Ampere said. Streaming TV orders dropped 41 percent over the same period, from 1,144 to 678, the report said. Scripted linear TV showed signs of recovery, with series orders increasing 11 percent from 236 in 2023 to 262 in 2025. Over-the-air broadcasters like ABC, CBS and NBC have been more resilient than pay TV channels. Broadcast series orders declined 13 percent between 2022 and 2025, from 408 to 352, while pay TV orders dropped 33 percent, from 1,295 to 877. The pay TV decline is linked to a reduction in cable and satellite subscribers since 2016, as churn increased due to higher costs charged to those customers. Thematic networks like Food Network and HGTV, which were considered to be more-resilient to pay TV churn, are also starting to be affected, Ampere noted. As a whole, TV networks are changing how they develop programming: Ampere said traditional seasonal cycles built around late-year script orders and early-year pilots are giving way to year-round development and more straight-to-series commitments. (Chart courtesy Ampere Analysis) Since 2024, more than half of new scripted series orders from U.S. broadcast networks have been franchise-based, reflecting a greater emphasis on established properties and audiences. 'In the post-peak TV era, the traditional seasonal development cycle from linear broadcasters in the US is evolving,' George Evans, a Senior Researcher at Ampere Analysis, said in a statement early Tuesday morning. 'By responding more dynamically to audience appetite and leaning on scripted franchises with established fanbases, broadcast TV can continue to prove its worth in the seemingly streamer-dominated US market.' Ampere also found significant overlap between linear and streaming audiences, particularly around comedy, action and adventure, crime and thriller and drama: Broadcast programs from ABC, CBS and NBC are also generating engagement on Hulu, Paramount Plus and Peacock, extending their value beyond their original linear runs.