Cowboys vs. Giants prediction, odds, pick for Week 1 Sunday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys visit NFC East rival New York Giants in Week 1. Which team starts the season with victory here? Gambling is not offered on this website in any form. John Harbaugh's tenure with the New York Giants begins under the brightest lights the NFL calendar offers, and there's no gentler way to ease into a new era than hosting the rival Dallas Cowboys in prime time. Complicating that debut is star receiver Malik Nabers' uncertain availability as he continues working back from a torn ACL, though reports out of camp suggest he's trending toward suiting up. Dallas, meanwhile, travels to MetLife Stadium looking to open the season the way it closed the last one, leaning on continuity between Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens while a new-look Giants roster tries to find its footing in Week 1. Can Harbaugh's culture reset flip the script on a Cowboys team that's dominated this rivalry in recent memory, or does Dallas' experience carry the day on the road under the Sunday night spotlight? Cowboys vs. Giants Odds Cowboys: -3 Giants: +3 Over/Under: 48.5 points Cowboys vs. Giants Key Injuries Dallas will open the season without one of its most important offensive linemen. Left guard Tyler Smith is headed to injured reserve after undergoing thumb surgery and is expected to miss four to six weeks, meaning he is officially out for Sunday Night Football and at least the first four games. The 2023 second-team All-Pro's absence creates an immediate interior protection concern for Dak Prescott, particularly against a Giants front that will look to generate pressure. T.J. Bass is expected to take Smith's starting spot at left guard. New York's major storyline is Malik Nabers, who has been working back from last season's ACL injury. He is technically a game-time decision, but the latest reporting has Nabers trending toward playing and being available for the Week 1 opener. As of Tuesday, no other prominent Giants starters have been formally ruled out. Cowboys vs. Giants Betting Trends Dallas has taken early support in the Week 1 Sunday Night Football market, moving from a 1.5-point road favorite to a consensus spread of Cowboys -3. The total has climbed a full point from 47.5 to 48.5, signaling that bettors expect points despite both clubs unveiling new wrinkles in the opener, while 62% of spread tickets and 84% of spread money have backed the Giants at the current number. The Cowboys lost their most recent trip to MetLife Stadium 34-17 in Week 18 last season, failing to cover as 3-point favorites in a game that sailed over the 50.5-point total. Keys to Cowboys vs. Giants Matchup Article Continues Below Dallas' blueprint starts with Dak Prescott exploiting New York's secondary before the Giants' pass rush can take over. The Cowboys must account for the loss of left guard Tyler Smith, but Prescott still has the experience edge over Jaxson Dart and should lean on quick throws to CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson and the eventual deep ball to George Pickens as he burns the Giants' secondary. Dallas also needs to avoid predictable passing downs against a Giants front that can change the game with pressure. For New York, the key is allowing Dart to play on schedule rather than asking the young quarterback to win Sunday night by himself. Dart completed 63.7% of his passes for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns and five interceptions in his rookie season, while adding 487 rushing yards and nine scores. If Malik Nabers is active, he is the matchup-breaker: across his last three games against Dallas, Nabers totaled 29 catches, 351 yards and two touchdowns, including a nine-catch, 167-yard performance in the latest meeting he had against Dallas. Cowboys vs. Giants Prediction and Pick The Cowboys enter Sunday night with the steadier quarterback situation, and that matters in a divisional opener featuring a Giants team beginning its first season under John Harbaugh. Dallas has the advantage with Dak Prescott's experience, CeeDee Lamb and George Picken's ability to tilt coverage and an offense built to attack quickly, but losing left guard Tyler Smith is a serious concern against a New York defensive front that can make life uncomfortable inside. The Giants can absolutely win if Jaxson Dart protects the football, uses his mobility to extend drives and gets Malik Nabers involved early. Nabers has repeatedly punished Dallas when healthy, and a confident home crowd should give New York a little extra juice in Harbaugh's debut. Still, Dallas is better equipped to handle the pressure of a Week 1 prime-time game, while the Giants are asking a young quarterback to navigate a talented rival defense. Take the Cowboys to win and cover, with both offenses helping push the game over the total. Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 23