Can Jamie Davis run a competitive Louisiana U.S. Senate campaign?

Audio recording is automated for accessibility. Humans wrote and edited the story. Conventional wisdom is that Louisiana is a solid red state and therefore will always elect a Republican to the U.S. Senate. The last time a Democrat won a U.S. Senate election was when Mary Landrieu was re-elected to her final term in 2008. A Democrat has not won an election for any statewide office since 2019 when incumbent Gov. Jon Bel Edwards won re-election to his second and final term. The only public polling on the U.S. Senate general election so far has been from the Public Policy Polling company. Their survey of 518 registered voters showed Republican U.S. House Rep. Julia Letlow at 41%, and her Democratic challenger Jamie Davis at 37%, and 22% undecided. The poll was taken July 21-22. U.S. House Rep. Julia Letlow Credit: Official photo Race dynamics appear to heavily favor Letlow over Davis. A sitting member of Congress, Letlow has the endorsements of President Trump and Governor Landry. She has raised $6 million while Davis has raised $2 million. Plus, Louisiana voted 60% Republican in the 2024 Presidential election. The only office Democratic nominee Jamie Davis has held is parish police juror, the equivalent of a city councilman. He is a Black man running in a state that has not elected an African American to any statewide office since Reconstruction. Those are daunting challenges for Davis. However, in trying to make it a competitive race, Davis does have some opportunities, both in external structural factors and in race dynamics. Structurally, the party in the White House usually loses seats in Congress during midterm elections. This is due to a pendulum effect where the voters do not like to let either party gain too much power. Second, both President Trump and Gov. Landry have sunk in popularity, and have polling approval ratings below 50% right now, so their endorsements might not carry the same weight as in the past. In terms of race dynamics, Davis is a blue-collar soybean farmer from the rural parish of Tensas. His opponent is a white-collar former university administrator from Monroe. In terms of actual life and work experience, Davis has much more in common with the average white, rural, working-class Republican MAGA voter than his upper-class opponent. He could highlight that to get some Republican and independent voters to cross over. For Davis to do well, he will need to find a way to significantly increase turnout in traditional Democratic strongholds like New Orleans. In the last primary election for governor in 2023, New Orleans turnout was only 27%, down 11 points from the same primary in 2019. Statewide turnout in the gubernatorial primary in 2023 was 36%. Landry won without a runoff by capturing 52% in the primary. Low turnout in New Orleans and other urban areas allowed Landry to become governor by only winning about 19% of total Louisiana registered voters. Black voters make up about 31% of the Louisiana electorate and most of them are Democrats. Democratic candidates have not been able to mobilize Black turnout in recent elections even when there is a Black candidate on the ballot. This was the case in 2023 when the Democratic gubernatorial nominee was former state Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson, an African American who served in theGov. Jon Bel Edwards administration. Even with high Black and Democratic turnout, the numbers are not there. More Republicans are registered than Democrats. Davis needs some crossover Republican and independent voters. Republicans in Southern states have been effective in recent years in nationalizing statewide elections over culture war issues such as abortion and transgender rights, even though Southern Democrats tend to be more conservative on these social issues than the national party. For Davis to get crossover votes, he will need to focus on proposals to increase jobs and avoid the culture war issues. Potential hot button issues in the campaign could be data centers and tariffs. While data centers are new to Louisiana, they have proven to be controversial in other states because of their high water and electricity requirements, and potential negative impacts to farming jobs. Tariffs are another hot button issue. Many farmers believe that Trump-imposed tariffs have caused China to stop buying U.S. crops and turn to other countries like Brazil, reducing demand and prices for U.S. crops in the global market. Proposals to strategically reduce tariffs and open new markets to Louisiana farmers might gain traction. Davis can run a competitive race, but he will need to turn out Black voters in high numbers, while also attracting crossover white, rural, working-class Republican voters by highlighting his expertise as a farmer, and offering pragmatic policy solutions to increase jobs and income. Regardless of the outcome of this election, the results give insights into the priorities of the electorate as we head into statewide elections in 2027, when the governor and the entire state legislature will be on the ballot. Republish our articles for free, online or in print, under a Creative Commons license. Republish This Story