What do changing population trends mean for international development?

It will take about five minutes to read this article. In the same time, 1,300–1,500 babies will be born worldwide. While it may sound like a lot, the number actually points to a broader trend: declining global fertility rates. At least that is what the latest UNFPA State of World Population report is showing. While the world's population continues to grow, many countries are experiencing record-low fertility rates, population aging, and shrinking workforce. The reasons are various, but one that stands out is economic insecurity. What other factors contribute to this trend and what are the main repercussions and solutions? Read experts' opinions on this matter in the article below. Key Takeaways: According to UNFPA (2025), many people have fewer children than they want because of poverty, high cost of living, insecure work situations, poor support for childcare, and gender inequalities. Population decline and demographic ageing are among the most significant demographic trends in the 21st century. A shrinking working-age population may slow economic growth, reduce productivity, and place greater pressure on public finances as the proportion of older adults increases. According to experts, governments should prioritize affordable childcare, paid parental leave for both parents, flexible work arrangements, and access to quality reproductive and maternal healthcare. DevelopmentAid: What do you see as the main factors behind declining fertility rates globally? 'The global reduction in fertility is an expression of the deep changes happening at socioeconomic, demographic, and health levels; it is not just about the wish for smaller families. In the global context, the total fertility rate (TFR) decreased from about 4.9 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3 births in 2023, coming close to the replacement level (2.1 births per woman) in many areas (United Nations, 2024). They are driven by the following factors: women's education, female labour-force participation, urbanization, better chances of survival of the young, and greater access to family planning methods. At the same time, the current decline in many developed and developing nations becomes a result of structural limitations rather than free choice. According to UNFPA (2025), many people have fewer children than they want because of poverty, high cost of living, insecure work situations, poor support for childcare, and gender inequalities. Also, the later age of marriage and childbirth because of education and career building becomes part of the problem. It is crucial to note that fertility decline differs across regions; while East Asia and Europe are experiencing very low fertility, many sub-Saharan African countries still have higher fertility levels.' 'Attributing the recent, 'sharper than expected' decline in fertility solely to the demographic transition, the historically gradual shift from high fertility and high mortality to low mortality and eventually low fertility, would not be incorrect, but it would be incomplete. Although fertility decline is a global trend, its pace and drivers vary across countries and regions. Beyond demographic transition, it should be understood through a combination of modernization, urbanization, changing lifestyles, evolving perceptions of parenthood, the rise of 'intensive parenting', and the increasing burden on the 'sandwich generation', who often care simultaneously for children and ageing parents. Declining housing and education affordability has also widened the gap between ideal and achieved fertility. In the past, families often had more children than they intended. Today, many are unable to achieve their desired family size, as the financial and emotional costs of raising children have increased substantially. The paradigm has changed. In addition, post-COVID lifestyle changes, the influence of social media and smartphones, and the emergence of a "smartphone generation" with fundamentally different attitudes towards family formation should also be considered. Despite below-replacement fertility, the world's population continues to grow because of population momentum. The key issue is not that fertility is declining, but that the decline has been much faster and steeper than anticipated.' 'Declining fertility rates are driven by a combination of economic, social, and demographic factors rather than a single cause. Rising housing costs, job insecurity, and the increasing expense of raising children have led many people to delay or limit parenthood. Greater access to education—particularly for women—and expanded career opportunities have also contributed to later marriage and childbearing. At the same time, improved access to contraception and reproductive healthcare has enabled individuals to make more informed choices about family size. Changing social norms, including greater acceptance of diverse lifestyles and a reduced expectation that marriage and parenthood are universal life goals, have further influenced fertility patterns. In many countries, inadequate childcare, limited parental leave, and difficulty balancing work and family responsibilities create additional barriers to having children. Together, these factors have resulted in fertility rates falling below replacement level in an increasing number of countries, making population aging a defining demographic trend of the twenty-first century.' 'It is factual that the world is changing rapidly and so are societies. Nowadays, people are more focused on following their careers and succeed professionally. In addition, raising children is becoming more expensive, mainly in the Global South, where the public schools and health facilities are characterized to be poor, forcing parents and guardians to invest extra money for the best services at private facilities. Family, as the main institution and cell of society, is also declining in popularity. In my opinion, families are not respected anymore, which reduces people's willingness to have kids. These factors, among others that can be mentioned, have the potential to demotivate people to have kids before their thirties or to have more than two kids.' 'The decline in fertility rates is one of the most important demographic trends of the last century. The following common factors influencing this trend appear across much of the world: 1. Higher levels of education, especially for women; 2. Urbanization; 3. Increased participation of women in the workforce; 4. Access to contraception; 5. Rising cost of raising children; 6. Delayed marriage and parenthood; 7. Changing social values and lifestyles.' DevelopmentAid: What are the most significant consequences of declining fertility and changing population trends for sustainable development? Which sectors are likely to be affected the most over the coming decades? 'Population decline and demographic ageing are among the most significant demographic trends in the 21st century. According to the United Nations estimates, by 2050, the number of people aged 65 years or older in the world will grow to 1.6 billion compared to 761 million in 2021 (United Nations, 2023). For countries with persistently low fertility, this will mean a decrease in the number of young people entering the workforce, an increase in the dependency ratio, and strain on the pension and healthcare system. The most affected areas will be healthcare, social protection, labour market, education, and economic activity. Older populations entail high demand for managing chronic diseases, long-term care, and geriatrics, as well as the provision of services related to non-communicable diseases, which cause 74% of deaths across the globe (WHO, 2024). However, in countries with a young population, difficulties in ensuring proper education, employment, and reproductive health will be encountered. Sustainable development demands adjustment of the infrastructure, health care, migration policies, and the economy of the countries facing demographic changes. It is not merely a question of population decline but whether societies manage to capitalize on demographic change through innovation and healthy ageing.' 'The consequences of declining fertility for sustainable development should be assessed through evidence-based country experiences rather than universal assumptions. Development is not a 'copy and paste' process. Although fertility decline is a global phenomenon, its implications vary across countries and regions. Issues such as housing and education affordability and equal access to education are already central to the sustainable development agenda. Experience from some countries also suggests that persistently below-replacement fertility may be accompanied by distortions in the sex ratio at birth, with long-term demographic consequences. Rather than individual economic sectors, I believe population ageing and increasing demand for long-term care will have the greatest implications. Occupations related to elderly care are therefore likely to become increasingly important. At the same time, artificial intelligence and automation may partly offset labour shortages. Changing social attitudes and behaviours should also be considered, especially as the working-age population is expected to continue growing in many countries for some time. Migration, the most dynamic demographic component, will remain a key driver of population change. Just as people respond to demographic change through fertility behaviour, they also respond through migration. Finally, 'depopulation' deserves particular attention, as very low fertility combined with negative net migration may lead to rapid population decline in many regions.' 'Declining fertility and population aging present both challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. A shrinking working-age population may slow economic growth, reduce productivity, and place greater pressure on public finances as the proportion of older adults increases. Pension systems, healthcare services, and long-term care are likely to face growing demand, while governments may need to adjust tax structures and social protection systems to remain financially sustainable. Labor shortages could affect key sectors such as healthcare, education, agriculture, manufacturing, and technology, encouraging greater investment in automation and workforce training. At the same time, changing demographic patterns may reshape housing markets, transportation systems, and urban planning, requiring more age-friendly infrastructure and accessible public services. However, lower population growth can also ease pressure on natural resources, reduce emissions growth, and create opportunities for more sustainable consumption if supported by appropriate policies. Successfully managing demographic change will require balancing economic resilience, social inclusion, and environmental sustainability.' 'The most significant consequence of declining fertility is social insecurity. And the poorer the country, the worse the situation. The social security system is based on the employed young and adult people. In countries where the elderly population is larger than the young and adult populations, they might face challenges to ensure the social security system.' 'Profound implications are visible globally and are affecting economic prosperity, social well-being, and environmental sustainability. Decline in the share of working-age people reduces labor supply, slows economic growth, and increases the burden on a smaller workforce to support retirees through taxes and social contributions. Slower population growth can reduce long-term pressure on natural resources. However, an aging country with high consumption can still have a large environmental footprint. The biggest winners of these changes are likely to be elder care, biotechnology, automation, AI, and retirement-focused financial services. The sectors facing the greatest disruption will be labor-intensive industries, traditional pension systems, education and consumer markets that depend on large numbers of young people. Surveys demonstrate that most people around the world still want children, but many end up having fewer than they intend. The high cost of raising children is often identified as a major barrier to achieving desired family size.' DevelopmentAid: What policies should the international community and governments prioritize to help people have the families they want while also preparing for changing demographic trends? 'Policies aimed at improving demography must go beyond efforts to boost fertility and instead seek to solve the problems that hinder people from having their desired family size. In addition, governments need to focus on making sure childcare is affordable, providing parental leave programs, reproductive health care, gender equity in the workplace, and ensuring affordable housing. The example of Nordic countries shows that the existence of well-functioning systems that support families decreases the difference between desired and achieved fertility by reducing the cost of having children for citizens. It is also necessary to improve universal coverage by providing reproductive health services, especially in developing nations where there is a lack of reproductive health services. UNFPA reports that more than a quarter of women globally cannot make decisions concerning their sexual and reproductive health (UNFPA, 2024). On the other hand, it is necessary for nations experiencing population aging to ensure healthy aging, lifelong learning, automation, and migration management. Finally, demographic management must allow people to have the desired number of children and ensure that nations are prepared for population changes.' 'First, it should again be emphasized that development is not a 'copy-and-paste' process. Every country requires policies tailored to its own demographic, social, and economic context. Governments should regularly conduct evidence-based fertility research, including intergenerational comparisons, or incorporate dedicated modules into existing surveys to better understand the drivers of fertility decline. The rapid decline in fertility calls for comprehensive and consistent social policies. The gap between desired and achieved family size should be systematically assessed, and governments, civil society, employers, and academia should work together to develop, implement, monitor, and continuously improve evidence-based solutions. If new family policies are introduced, their communication should also reflect the fact that the paradigm has changed. Creating a more family-friendly environment for both employed and unemployed people should be a priority. Flexible working arrangements, parental leave, employment security, and better alignment between working hours and school schedules can help people achieve their desired family size. Addressing depopulation requires fertility and migration policies to be considered together. In this regard, greater attention should also be given to demographic data literacy, spatial analysis, and local capacity-building, while ensuring that local and global development agendas remain aligned. Finally, family policies should move beyond encouraging births and instead reduce the growing care burden across generations. Without accessible childcare and long-term care systems, family policies alone are unlikely to achieve their intended demographic outcomes.' 'Governments should adopt people-centered policies that remove barriers to family formation while respecting individual choices. Affordable childcare, paid parental leave for both parents, flexible work arrangements, and access to quality reproductive and maternal healthcare can help individuals achieve their desired family size. Addressing housing affordability, youth employment, and income insecurity is equally important, as financial uncertainty is a major reason many people postpone or forgo having children. At the same time, countries should prepare for aging populations by investing in lifelong learning, healthy aging initiatives, pension reform, and stronger healthcare and long-term care systems. Expanding opportunities for older adults to remain active in the workforce and supporting productivity through innovation and digital technologies can help offset labor shortages. International cooperation should focus on sharing demographic research, strengthening migration governance where appropriate, and exchanging best practices. Rather than pursuing population targets, policies should empower individuals with genuine choices while ensuring societies remain economically resilient, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable in the face of demographic change.' 'We recently passed a pandemic that impacted our relationships and sense of safety. We are also currently experiencing economic and security uncertainty driven by influential structures. With this in mind, why bring a child into this world? It does not seem like the right moment or the right decision anymore. The future seems so unpredictable. If fertility drops, who will contribute to the pension fund for the next several decades so all generations are covered? I assume governments will have to find innovative ways for older adults to live with dignity. Maybe developing modern communes with vegetable gardens, cafeterias and medical centers supported by both the government and private funding is a solution. AI is also becoming a key player for the future of healthcare and manual labor. Maybe in the next decades we will all have an AI doctor on our phones and a robot worker who can help us with daily chores. Overall, people will continue to have children but the decision is a very calculated one. Maybe only those who can afford to raise them will actually go this route. Governments should focus on covering those who are already here instead of future populations. ' 'The international community and governments must make the countries' resources work for the people's wellbeing. People are afraid about the world that is being built. It looks like all of the values that were built until the XX century were disrupted. So the main policy that must be created first is the family policy. World leaders must restore trust in the family, and the family institution must recover its place as the core organization of society. There is no wealthy society without a healthy family. The second important policy is the education policy. We need more educated people. People that study to create a better world.' 'Governments and development actors need to make family life more affordable, invest in children and productivity, adapt institutions to aging populations, manage migration effectively, and prepare cities and public services for long-term demographic change.' See also: Can the Sustainable Development Goals still be achieved by 2030? | Experts' Opinions Changing population trends have also a major impact on the international development job market. Considering the ageing populations, labour shortages, migration, and pressure on healthcare and social protection systems, demand is growing for professionals who can help design and implement effective solutions. On the DevelopmentAid website, there are currently over 4,500 open positions in the international development sector, along with tenders and grants for individuals. Individual Professional Members are able to access them all, check salary trends and stay up to date with the latest news in the field.