Indo-Pacific's future runs through the Indian Ocean

India must leverage its pivotal position to shape the Indo-Pacific's emerging security architecture Tumultuous changes have been occurring in global geopolitics over the last couple of years. These include the onset of pandemics, war in the Eurasian heartland and complex US-China ties, which are defining the contours of global geopolitics. In addition, supply chain disruptions, conflicts in maritime corridors, and the weaponisation of critical mineral trading are also new forms of geopolitical complexity affecting the global order. According to UNCTAD statistics from April 2025, 'Maritime transport moves over 80 per cent of goods traded worldwide'. The onset of the Iran-US war and the subsequent Hormuz crisis have had a major impact on maritime trade. Advertisement It is in this framework that one can envisage the importance of the Indian Ocean in shaping the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. Ever since Donald Trump began his second term in office and upended US engagement in West Asia, newer security challenges have come up in the Indo-Pacific region as well. Despite the somewhat changing position of the US, the Indo-Pacific security structure remains important in the global security structure. The Indian Ocean too remains critical to the overall global maritime security structure. From an Indian perspective, the Indian Ocean provides an anchor point through which it can effectively navigate the evolving geopolitics in both the IOR and the broader Indo-Pacific matrix. More from Opinion More from Opinion Mapping the Indian Ocean to the Indo-Pacific Structure Over the years, the Indian Ocean has provided the necessary impetus to global trade and commerce. This region is endowed with natural resources, including critical minerals and conventional energy sources such as oil and gas. There exists significant potential for the blue economy in the Indian Ocean region as well. Major geopolitical flashpoints like the Russia-Ukraine war, the Red Sea crisis, the current geopolitical quagmire in West Asia and tensions in the South China Sea are occurring in the Indian Ocean region and around it. One of the most important security challenges that both the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean are currently grappling with is the rise of China and the security challenges it is posing to both the Indian Ocean littoral states and the Pacific. China has launched an ambitious plan to control the sea lanes and to station its marine command unit at one of the key entry points of the Indian Ocean. Similarly, its naval bases in Gwadar and control over Hambantota are going to pose a subtle challenge to the maritime security of the Indian Ocean. Advertisement Challenges for Indo-Pacific In recent years, the US, which is an Indo-Pacific power, has taken a back seat in this regard. This is evident from the fact that, in June 2026, the name of the US Indo-Pacific Command was reverted to US Pacific Command, which was created in 1947. By changing the name, what the United States is signalling requires closer analysis. Though the United States justified the name change as a tribute to its war heroes, the strategic implications, as reported, are manifold. When the US took a decision to rename the Indo-Pacific Command as Pacific Command, the US and China rebooted their relationship and took it to new heights. Moreover, President Donald Trump visited China in May 2026 and expanded the scope of transactional relations between the two. It may be added that even before Trump's visit, the US Administration was mulling over improving its economic relations with China. Significantly, the US National Security Strategy 2025 emphasises improving economic ties with China. At the same time, China's desire to improve ties with the US is evident in its somewhat neutral stance during the ongoing war between the US and Iran. This is even though China and Iran have a strong bilateral relationship. It has also been argued that, following his visit to China in May 2026, the Trump Administration is adopting a cautious stance on the Taiwan Strait without diluting the US's original position on the Taiwan question. Keeping all the above strategic considerations in mind, it is pertinent to highlight how India needs to look at the changing geopolitical realignment in the Indo-Pacific. Advertisement India's Strategic Engagement with Indo-Pacific Over time, India has approached the Indo-Pacific region as one of the strategic pillars of its foreign policy. As the pivotal player in the Indian Ocean Region, India plays an important role in shaping the region's geopolitics. One may add here that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech in Mauritius in 2015 outlined India's strategic doctrine, SAGAR (Sustainable Growth for All in the Region), which underlines the need for sustainable security in the Indian Ocean Region and highlights the paramount role of India in this region. Prior to the SAGAR doctrine, some strategies, such as the Look East and Act East policies, were already in place. Both Look East and Act East policies recognise the 'centrality' of ASEAN. Another important milestone in the evolution of Indo-Pacific strategy was the 'US-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region' signed in 2015 by India and the US. According to this Strategic Vision, 'India and the United States are important drivers of regional and global growth. From Africa to East Asia, we will build on our partnership to support sustainable, inclusive development, and increased regional connectivity'. This Strategic Vision has also paved the way for underpinning the broader geopolitical notion of 'Indo-Pacific'. It was in 2021 that the first online meeting of Quad (India, Australia, Japan, and the US) leaders took place. In the Quad, India plays an important role in shaping the broader canvas for this grouping, spanning climate change, critical technology, and infrastructure development. Now India needs to re-examine its role due to major geopolitical churnings underway at present. This is especially true in the context of a milder shift in US policy towards this geopolitical region. India's initiatives to augment its strategic cooperation with Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia are a welcome development. Another aspect that needs to be emphasised here is that the visit of the Japanese Premier, Sanae Takaichi, to India in the first week of July marked a new beginning in India's Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific strategies. The flurry of geopolitical engagement in and around the Indo-Pacific region by three Quad member countries, along with Indonesia and New Zealand, signals that these countries share common geopolitical and geo-economic dynamism that can sustain the region's geopolitics. Prime Minister Modi's visit to these three countries, along with Indonesia and New Zealand, signalled important geopolitical postures of India. While India remains committed to the idea of Quad, it is also taking important steps towards strategising its cooperation with the member countries on important issues at the bilateral level. Though India and the US share a common strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific region, Washington's recent strategic move towards greater economic engagement with Beijing certainly generated apprehension in New Delhi. By leveraging its partnerships with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and Indonesia, India can address some of the core bilateral issues like clean energy, technological cooperation, greater economic collaboration, as well as the question of the Open Indo-Pacific, etc. Another important aspect that needs to be highlighted is that Prime Minister Modi started his diplomacy by visiting Indonesia first, which occupies an important position in the Indian Ocean region. The visit of Prime Minister Modi to Australia, New Zealand and Indonesia reflects India's Mahasagar initiative. This strategic doctrine of Mahasagar (Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions) was outlined by the Prime Minister during his visit to Mauritius in March 2025. The Mahasagar initiative aims at enhancing and strengthening sustainable security, giving primacy to the Blue Economy, mitigating climatic disasters, and enhancing the construction of ports and connectivity projects. This initiative, also known as the 'Great Ocean Initiative,' aims to provide greater leverage to India's maritime connectivity projects. The Mahasagar initiative will strengthen India's geopolitical strategies by countering China's aggressive naval strategies, such as the BRI and the PLAN, which, over the years, have posed a substantial challenge to peace and security in the Indian Ocean Region and the Indo-Pacific geopolitical construct. At the same time, through port and infrastructure connectivity, India can also augment its presence in Africa. This can improve trade relations with Africa. Similarly, through this initiative, India can also effectively connect with the small island countries of the Indo-Pacific. What is needed is an inclusive Indo-Pacific in which geopolitics and geoeconomics can operate within an 'equilibrium' framework. India's Mahasagar doctrine should also embrace the Mediterranean strategic framework, as this is an important sea connecting both the Black Sea and the Red Sea, as well as the Indian Ocean. This geopolitical realignment can be in the framework of the 'Greater Indo-Pacific'. There is a need to counter expanding NATO in the Indo-Pacific region. The interaction among three strategically vital regions of the world throughout history was aptly highlighted by Kalidas Nag in his book The Greater India. Through the Indian Ocean route, India can connect with the emerging Northern Sea Route. It will facilitate India's entry into the Arctic region. Moreover, through the Indo-Pacific Corridor, India can also reach out to Russia through the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor. This, to a great extent, will contribute to augmenting India-Russia trade and economic cooperation. Similarly, through the Altai region, where Russia and Kazakhstan share a border, oil can be transported to India. The same can be done from Kazakhstan through two rivers — Altai and Irtysh — to Russia's Siberian port Sabetta. In a nutshell, it can be added that the Indian Ocean helps India shape its maritime as well as continental policy. The same can be inferred from the Great Nicobar Project, which India has enunciated in recent years. The Great Nicobar Project aims to augment India's presence in the Strait of Malacca while also checkmating China's belligerent moves. A closer look at global maritime geopolitics in recent years demonstrates that its importance is increasing day by day. The onset of the Iran-US war and the subsequent Strait of Hormuz crisis demonstrate the importance of chokepoints and maritime connectivity corridors. It is in this context that one can see the importance of the Indian and Pacific Oceans in global geopolitics. Due to its strategic location, as well as its vast extent, it connects continents of Asia and Africa. Along with the Eastern Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean is going to shape the geopolitical dynamics of the vast tract of landmass. Throughout history, this coastline along the Indian Ocean has played a critical role in geopolitical dynamics. It has been observed that the emergence of the Indo-Pacific has substantially altered the geopolitical landscape. It is in this context that one can see the importance of this geopolitical zone. Though the US Administration is re-examining the strategic concept, one thing that needs to be underlined here is that it cannot abandon the Indo-Pacific strategic framework. Thus, here lies the importance of the Greater Indo-Pacific, which can bring strategic convergence to the Indo-Pacific. India, as the pivotal player in the Indian Ocean region, can provide the necessary stability to the Indo-Pacific geopolitical structure. (The author teaches at the School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.)