GOP will pounce on Sherrill for picking Caldwell. Plus, polls signal bloodbath for Repubs.

A controversy surrounding New Jersey's lieutenant governor has become an early test for Gov. Mikie Sherrill, Republicans are staring at troubling poll numbers, and President Trump continues to dominate the national conversation on everything from Iran to artificial intelligence. Julie Roginsky, a Democrat, and Mike DuHaime, a Republican, are consultants who have worked on opposite teams for their entire careers yet have remained friends. They break it down with Star-Ledger editor Enrique Lavín moderating. Caldwell scandal intensifies Q: Gov. Mikie Sherrill has called on Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell to resign after an independent investigation found he sexually harassed a woman, violated state ethics rules and improperly sought a promotion for a state employee with whom he had a romantic relationship. Caldwell denies the findings and, as of Friday morning, has given no indication he will step down despite mounting calls for his resignation from Democrats and Republicans. Caldwell can't simply be fired. Is this primarily a Dale Caldwell scandal, or has it now become a Mikie Sherrill leadership test? Julie: What a difference a year makes. Can you imagine if a similar scandal had happened on the previous governor's watch? The alleged perpetrator would have been given more responsibility, and the accusers would have been dragged through the mud by the governor and his enablers. So first and foremost, I really applaud Gov. Sherrill for acting decisively and quickly. But I'll repeat what I said a few weeks ago: No politician, including the governor, should initiate these investigations. New Jersey desperately needs an independent body, funded by the Legislature and staffed by retired judges and federal investigators, that can hear complaints of misconduct in campaigns or state offices and act without fear or favor. It is fair to both the accusers and the accused, and it is the only way to take even the hint of bias out of these investigations. Mike: Gov. Sherrill is doing the right thing. This has been a terrible distraction and the first real blemish on her first term. The governor cannot be seen as excusing Caldwell's alleged behavior. While Caldwell has denied the findings, the report paints a picture of a lieutenant governor lacking the judgment, restraint and maturity required for his position of power. Make no mistake: This is a very bad situation for the governor and her team, but things only get better when you face them and make the tough decision, which she did here. Republicans will pounce on the governor and her team for picking a complete unknown for lieutenant governor over so many other Democrats — who had been vetted through public service — and somehow looking past concerns that some raised. Caldwell's behavior has at least temporarily derailed her first term in office, but she has plenty of time to get back on track. The next move is Caldwell's. He will want to clear his name, and he cannot simply be fired. It could get ugly, and that's not good for the governor. Democrats are lucky the federal midterm elections are upon us to take away the political spotlight for now. A deal or annihilation? Q: At the U.N., President Trump made an explicit threat to Iran if it doesn't strike a deal: 'Do I annihilate the Islamic Republic and do it quickly?' First, polls show Americans dislike that we are at war with Iran. Why would the president believe we as a nation are OK with him making what some would characterize as a genocidal threat or a war crime? Julie: Seriously? You are seriously asking why the president believes what he believes? He is a deeply unserious man, in the throes of dementia, who believes that guardrails are for suckers. That's why he does what he does. Mike: As much as opposition to the war is building, don't think that anyone in the U.S. feels any love for Iran. If you are over 50, a large percentage of voters, you likely remember the hostage crisis, and those feelings haven't changed much since. And no American truly thinks Trump is threatening genocide. Your question is an example of Trump critics who take him literally but not seriously. Trump tests the limits Q: And despite the over-the-top threat, hasn't Trump remained comparatively constrained, partly because escalation would disrupt energy markets and supply chains and further endanger regional allies? Julie: Trump will not 'eviscerate' Iran because he already tried that once, and the people who survived are even more radical than the ones he killed. They have shut down the Strait of Hormuz and are in the process of shutting down shipping channels in the Red Sea. The Iranian regime has all the time in the world to wait Trump out. He actually has to worry about the price of diesel and how it impacts farmers in red states. Mike: Trump knows there are limits. He pretends there aren't, but he knows. As a real estate developer and businessman, he gained advantages through over-the-top threats. Of course, the fanatical theocrats who run Iran are not going to back down like some 1980s real estate agent. Trump hugs AI Q: Given the Trump administration's resistance to international regulation of AI, could the absence of global AI rules become one of Trump's most consequential foreign-policy legacies? Julie: Yes. This is the single biggest national security issue we are facing today, and Trump is doing nothing about it, both because he doesn't get it and, primarily, because he, his family and his political operation are all making a fortune off Big Tech. Mike: Do you really think Trump, or any U.S. president, can set global AI rules? Other countries can do what they want. It took many years to reach nuclear treaties with the Soviet Union. Don't pretend Trump can unilaterally set global AI rules and then blame him for not doing so. Put Xi on the ballot? Q: Are President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping pursuing a durable strategic framework, or did we just witness made-for-TV political optics, complete with the requisite soundbites, to help Trump's cause ahead of the midterms? Julie: I don't think the average voter cares about Trump's relationship with Xi Jinping. The average voter cares about the price of gas, the price of beef and the price of housing. Mike: Julie is right that our relationship with China is way down on the list of important things before the midterms. It is important for U.S. leaders to speak to China's leaders as the world's two superpowers. We are better off meeting and disagreeing about tariffs, Taiwan and AI than ever getting into a shooting war. GOP loses independents Q: Democrats lead Republicans, 53% to 42%, on the generic congressional ballot in a new Emerson College poll, fueled by strong support from independents and Hispanic voters who backed Trump in 2024, as well as greater Democratic enthusiasm. Other recent polls show Democratic advantages of five to nine points, while Trump's disapproval rating has reached 58%, reinforcing the possibility of a significant midterm wave. Are you seeing independent and Hispanic voters genuinely realigning toward Democrats, or is their shift primarily a reaction to Trump and current conditions? Julie: People are largely pragmatic when they vote. This year, they will be sending a message to Trump. Two years ago, they were sending a message to Democrats. Mike: While there's still time for things to change, this week's polling out of key states and nationally was disastrous for Republicans. Absolutely disastrous. Republicans are losing Senate races in Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Texas, Alaska, North Carolina, Georgia and even Kansas. That's right: Kansas. The polling this week, if correct, signals an absolute bloodbath in November. Polls now look worse than they did before the massive blue waves in 2018 and 2006. Can Christie make a comeback? Q: Former Gov. Chris Christie said last week during an appearance in New Hampshire that he would consider another run for president in 2028 if Republicans 'do a lot of losing' in November's midterms. Assuming there is a blue wave, could Christie mount a viable third campaign for president? Julie: No. The Republican Party that Trump has permanently altered will go the way of Tucker Carlson, not the way of Chris Christie. Mike: Let's wait to assess anything until after the midterms. But there should be room in the conversation for someone like Christie, who has been unafraid to publicly disagree with Trump. Most of the party politely nods and cowers in public while whispering a different story in private. Christie at least has the courage to speak his mind. And throw in the fact that Christie won in a state carried by Harris, Biden, Obama, Kerry, Sherrill, Murphy and Corzine over the past 25 years. When he led the RGA, Republicans won in Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin. Not a bad guy to have in the conversation. Sherrill's teacher union challenge Q: New Jersey's health benefits program for teachers and school employees is nearing a potential 'death spiral,' as Sherrill's appointees support premium increases that the NJEA opposes. Another failed vote could end the state plan next year, forcing workers into costlier private coverage and pushing school districts toward cuts or tax hikes. Can Sherrill persuade the union to accept higher rates or a broader overhaul without rupturing her relationship with educators and one of New Jersey's most powerful labor organizations? Julie: They will have to come to an accommodation, and I suspect they will. Mike: Christie had to withstand tens of millions of dollars in negative ads to bring teacher benefits, costs and contributions more in line with those of most other workers. Murphy gave the teachers union all it wanted, but that was to the detriment of taxpayers and now also the teachers themselves, who will have to accept changes. Sherrill will not make the same mistake. Despite the fact that many believe a Democrat would not cross the powerful teachers union, I predict she will stand strong here. Political consultants Julie Roginsky and Mike DuHaime Photo by Stephanie Cowan Editor's note: Can Americans still have a sensible and friendly political discussion across the partisan divide? The answer is yes, and we prove it every week with this 'Friendly Fire' conversation.