New NBA Draft Lottery Rules Give Grizzlies Reason to Stop Tanking

Historically, the small-market Memphis Grizzlies have avoided tanking. Now might be the perfect time to return to that organizational philosophy. It's largely worked for the Grizzlies anyway. They've normally fielded competitive, hard-nosed teams that they didn't tank to acquire. That's what made last season interesting: It would be hard to deny that Memphis was tanking. And the timing couldn't be more perfect. For decades, finishing near the bottom of the NBA standings came with the league's best odds of landing the No. 1 pick. Under the NBA's new lottery system, the league's three worst teams enter what the league calls a "draft relegation" zone. No, they won't be relegated to a lesser league, but they'll have just a 5.4% chance at landing the No. 1 pick. The other seven teams that miss the play-in tournament will have the best odds at No. 1 at 8.1% each. How about the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds? Well, it's a pretty sweet spot. If they lose in the play-in, they'll have the same odds of landing first as the league's worst teams: 5.4%. So should the Grizzlies aim for the play-in? You've likely heard the cliché, "Shoot for the moon. If you miss, you'll be among the stars." The play-in is not the sweetest spot for a rebuilding team. It would be nice to get that 8.1% chance at No. 1. That said, landing precisely in that range will be difficult. That's by design. The league is trying to minimize the extent to which teams can manufacture their own spot in the standings. The Grizzlies might as well roll with the punches. This team can try to win every game this year. They're still exceedingly unlikely to make the playoffs. If they do, it means Cameron Boozer is well ahead of schedule, and the team can turn to free agency and trades to improve moving forward. They might make the play-in. That would have similar implications, and it would still result in decent lottery odds. For a team like Memphis, that arguably means more than an extra 2.7 percentage points of odds at landing the No. 1 pick. They should have an intriguing pick in the 2027 NBA Draft regardless. Memphis will have opportunities to continue adding young talent to its core without tanking. Again — this is a team that, for most of its history, has avoided tanking. Now, the league is incentivizing teams to approach rebuilding exactly how the Grizzlies normally do. Why break from tradition now? Best Newest first Oldest first