The UAE, like the US and Israel, is normalising a permanent state of war in the Middle East

It took the Russian President Vladimir Putin 10 full months after his invasion of Ukraine to call what his country was engaged in a war. Even then, the word could only be used by him. Anyone else could get up to 15 years in prison for "disseminating false information". Six months after his second attack on Iran, US President Donald Trump is still in la-la land about the war from which he cannot extricate himself, nor 50,000 troops, 19 warships and two aircraft carriers. Whatever these forces are engaged in, it's not a war. "It's small potatoes," Trump said last week. In the past, he has used phrases like "a little skirmish", a "little detour" and a "little excursion, a couple of weeks, few weeks of excursion". New MEE newsletter: Jerusalem Dispatch Sign up to get the latest insights and analysis on Israel-Palestine, alongside Turkey Unpacked and other MEE newsletters The exhausted crew of the USS Abraham Lincoln, the aircraft carrier that laid anchor off Thailand last week after 286 days at sea, begged to disagree. While on shore at Pattaya, some spoke to the MS Now Pentagon correspondent Priya Sridhar. "Many of them told me that this was, in fact, the worst deployment that they have ever experienced," said Sridhar. "They wanted to just go directly home. They told me they are afraid that because of this war, these really long deployments without any port calls are going to become normalised." If anything, the image of this ship limping back home under escort to San Diego has become the symbol of the futility of a war that Trump seems unable to stop. It leaves an Iran that is more confident of its ability to strike back and one that is determined to frustrate the US, according to the latest US intelligence reports. Officials, quoted by the New York Times, said that Iran has emerged with a far better understanding of its military strengths and is more sure of its capabilities. A futile war As Trump was downplaying the strain the war is putting on the Pentagon, the Iranian army spokesman, Brigadier-General Mohammad Akrami Nia, said Iran would shift soon from the defensive and the reactive to the offensive and the proactive. In comments aired by Iranian broadcaster IRIB, Nia added that Iran would conduct "pre-emptive operations" wherever it perceives a threat: "Our military doctrine has shifted toward preemptive defence and deterrent operations." Iran war: Trump can continue the same failed policies - or shape a historic legacy Read More » The US and Israel are not the only players trying to normalise a permanent state of war. Far from serial military defeats of the western alliance serving as a warning to the rest of the world, these interventions provide a model that is being eagerly copied by small states emerging in their wake. The other leader who considers himself in a permanent state of war is Mohammed bin Zayed (widely known as MBZ), the president of the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi does not have an aircraft carrier, yet. It relies on money, mercenaries, fleets of aircraft to silently deliver arms, to police its seaborne empire which now stretches deep into Africa. It's a master of the dark arts of subversion and intervention. But its tentacles are just as long and its ambitions just as lethal as Israel. It operates without a large conventional military presence. "This approach relies primarily on three mechanisms: aerial logistical support, military equipment supplied to allied groups and the use of non-state actors as extensions of its foreign policy," wrote one analyst. The port of Bossaso in Puntland, Somalia, is officially leased for commercial use by DP World, a UAE firm, whereas in fact the port serves as a military launch point for shipments to Libya and Sudan fuelling the conflict there. The chaos actor Deniability is key. It allows Abu Dhabi to remain a staunch ally of the west while conducting operations which directly run counter to its interests. Above the table, Abu Dhabi presents itself as the highest form of Arab existence. It tells you it's a land of untold wealth, which can make the impossible happen, with the tallest building in the world, and its name spread over the best football clubs, or their stadia, all over the world: Manchester City, Arsenal and a dozen more in the US, Spain, France, Turkey. The UAE is certainly a bridge – of gun runners, money launderers, gold smugglers, sanction busters, and mercenaries and spies It even has a cabinet post called the Minister for Tolerance. The foreword to a 68-page document launched seven years ago, when MBZ proclaimed 2019 as his year of tolerance, proclaims the UAE as "a bridge of communication between the people of the world and their various cultures, in an environment of openness and respect that rejects extremism and promotes coexistence". It's certainly a bridge – of gun runners, money launderers, gold smugglers, sanction busters, and mercenaries and spies. But all of that is below the table. No one can accuse the Scottish public school-educated bin Zayed of sloth. Since the Arab Spring toppled two dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, MBZ has organised and funded a military coup in Egypt, and civil wars in Libya, Yemen and Sudan. He introduced Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), then an unknown Saudi prince, to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then the Trump clan. This cleared the way for MBS to become Crown Prince and de facto ruler. Bin Zayed has briefed countless western leaders on the alleged perils of political Islam in general and the Muslim Brotherhood in particular. The UAE/Israeli axis is openly aligning itself with the European far right, weaponising Islamophobia as political currency. From 'absolute monarchy' to dear friend: How Nigel Farage and Reform learned to love the UAE Read More » Last month, in what appeared like a coordinated campaign to fuel anti-Muslim hate in Britain, Netanyahu made absurd remarks referring to the UK as "Islamic Republic of Britain". This was followed by several Emirati influencers talking to British journalists and think tanks about the purported threat of the Muslim Brotherhood and warning of "an Islamic plot" to take over Britain and the west. That was in addition to the chilling revelations of an Emirati surveillance operation targeting Anas Altikriti. Bin Zayed's minions have actively courted far-right figures like Nigel Farage, the leader of the UK's Reform party, whom they evidently imagine to be a prime minister in waiting. Last January, on the rooftop of the Ritz Carlton in Dubai, at a private party hosted by the right-wing GB News – a gathering attended by Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, the UAE's minister of industry and advanced technology – Farage was completely taken in, as so many others had been before him, by the mirage of wealth and power. He said: "Look around at the palm. I want Clacton to look like this." After another summer of record heatwaves, Clacton soon might look like a desert. Farage praised the UAE for banning the Muslim Brotherhood and said a Reform government would do the same, according to sources. "We have a lot to learn from you, my dear sirs," Farage said, addressing the Emirati officials in attendance. "We recognise you are our friends. A Brexit London, a Reform London, will remember you." But interest in the UAE spreads wider than Brexit London. The UAE is the UK's largest trading partner in the Middle East, with bilateral trade worth £21.6bn ($29bn) in 2022. Over 5,000 British businesses operate there. It has an even more privileged status with the US. In July this year, the US Department of Commerce elevated the UAE's status under the Export Administration Regulations, loosening control to include military gear, commercial satellites and spacecraft. UAE: A war crimes enabler The UAE has now climbed into bed with Israel while a genocide is unfolding in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. While British Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government is about to announce sanctions on goods from illegal settlements and is looking at further restrictions on military aid, the Israeli military firm Elbit Systems announced a $2.3bn contract with the UAE, the largest in Israel's history. All this has provided cover for the UAE's real sphere of expansion, which is in Africa. For it is below the table that the real business is done. The civil war in Sudan has killed 59,000 people and displaced 14 million others. There are now volumes of evidence from MEE's own reports and many other sources of war crimes that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have committed in Darfur, el Fasher and elsewhere. The deputy prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Nazhat Shameem Khan, reports "significant progress" in their investigation. The UAE has armed and funded these war crimes through supply routes in Chad and Libya and brought in mercenaries from Colombia. Its companies have funnelled gold stolen from Sudan's coffers to Dubai. A Sudanese woman sits with her child in al-Rahmaniyah camp for displaced people, near the city of El-Obeid in the southern Kordofan region, on 25 June 2026 (AFP) "This is not a one-off failure of due diligence. It is a deliberate, sustained and well-documented policy of the UAE to arm a force credibly accused of genocide," wrote the advocacy director of Dawn. "Every continuing arms transfer to the UAE risks complicity in atrocity crimes. The international community has the evidence. What is missing is the will to act." It's a similar picture in Libya, where a steady stream of military cargo flights from Abu Dhabi or al-Dhafra airbase go to Benghazi or Tobruk, operated by front companies. This allows Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the de-facto military ruler of eastern Libya and commander of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces, to sustain operations despite a UN embargo. Soft power vs hard power In the long run, these complex operations fail. Tunisia is teetering on the verge of financial collapse, Egypt is weaker than ever before and Haftar and his son are now exploring links with Turkey, whose military intervention stopped Haftar's forces from taking Tripoli. UAE operations in Yemen have caused a decisive and lasting split with Saudi Arabia, which has at long last been energised into confronting Abu Dhabi's covert operations in Yemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa. Bin Zayed's reaction to the setback is to dig his heels in. But he has now made so many enemies I doubt this is wise A military alliance between Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has a better chance of attracting neutrals in this contest than India, Israel and the UAE. Bin Zayed's reaction to the setback is to dig his heels in. But he has now made so many enemies I doubt this is wise. There are many Emiratis around him who can see the perils of what he is doing. What's good for Abu Dhabi is not necessarily good for Dubai. While Abu Dhabi has declared an embargo on trade with Iran, Iranian banks are a lucrative revenue stream for Dubai. Above all, MBZ should read history. Abu Dhabi has cultivated the image of "Little Sparta", a city state that can punch far above its actual weight. Sparta and its allies did indeed win the final of four conflicts with Athens which are now known as the Peloponnesian War, and installed oligarchs in all of Greece just as Abu Dhabi tries to do now in North Africa. But who today travels to Sparta and who remembers it? It is to the loser, Athens, that the Roman Empire paid homage, the city that provided the golden age of Classical Greece in art, theatre, philosophy, architecture and democracy. Soft power will win over hard power every time, especially in today's world, where legitimacy is key. It's the reason why the US and its allies have lost every war since Kosovo. And it's the reason why Abu Dhabi is backing the wrong horse. The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.