What a record‑shattering El Niño means for the world's weather

he world is bracing for the strongest El Nino in history. The United Nations has made the grim prediction that our planet now sits in the 'danger zone' of extreme weather. That's based on data suggesting the current El Nino will break all previous records. El Nino is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that drives variations in temperature and winds across the Pacific Ocean and influences weather around the globe. Globally, we have endured many strong El Ninos in the past, but none have been as exceptionally strong and developed as quick as this one. So, what's behind this potentially record-breaking El Nino? And how might it affect weather across the globe? Scientists track El Nino activity using temperature data from the tropical Pacific Ocean near the equator. Historically, this has involved measuring how high or low temperatures are across this region. However, scientists and weather organizations, including Australia's Bureau of Meteorology, now use a relative index. Instead of simply measuring temperatures, this relative index accounts for any background warming due to climate change. This makes it much easier for scientists to identify how intense an El Nino is in a warming climate. Whether you're looking to broaden your horizons or stay informed on the latest developments, "Viewpoint" is the perfect source for anyone seeking to engage with the issues that matter most. By registering, you agree with The Jakarta Post 's Privacy Policy Please check your email for your newsletter subscription. The current El Nino stands out for two main reasons. El Nino typically peaks in the period between November and January, but this one is already unusually warm this early in the season and is yet to peak during summer. Recent data show the relative index for August was 2.3 degrees Celsius above average, stronger compared to other El Nino years. In Australia, El Nino years tend to coincide with hotter and drier conditions. However, every El Nino is different and can lead to different impacts. However, this El Nino will lead to record-breaking global temperatures in 2027. This historic El Nino is already altering weather around the globe. We see its most direct and severe impacts in countries surrounding the Pacific Ocean. Indonesia, for example, is battling massive wildfires. Scientists understand the current El Nino is a major driver of these increasingly fierce blazes. El Nino is also reshaping how and where cyclones form. Satellite pictures reveal there are currently four active tropical cyclones in the Pacific, from near Japan to as far away as Hawaii. This is extremely unusual. El Nino typically boosts cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific by carrying warmer water to those regions. Usually, we only see one or two such cyclones. In Australia, we are slightly more removed from the effects of El Nino. However, we can expect to feel its presence more strongly as we head into spring. The Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal forecast suggests Australia has so far had a textbook response to El Nino. Temperatures are rising, up to an unseasonable 37 degrees this week in parts of northern Australia, and conditions are getting drier. Much of eastern and central Australia can expect an unusually dry spring and summer, potentially heightening bushfire risk. However, a record-breaking El Nino will not necessarily trigger catastrophic bushfires in Australia. Consider three of the last strong El Nino we've experienced. In 1982, a robust El Nino coincided with drought-like conditions. In contrast, during the El Nino years of 1997-98 and 2015-16, some parts of Australia received drenching rain while other regions barely registered any moisture. The intensifying El Nino will likely exacerbate the consequences of climate change. As El Nino strengthens, countries around the world will be forced to grapple with increasingly extreme weather. Tragically, the most disadvantaged will be the hardest hit, with nearly 50 million people in vulnerable communities likely to be pushed into acute hunger. Farmers across the globe face more unpredictable weather, from crop-destroying floods in South America to severe drought in parts of Africa. To protect the world's people and ecosystems, governments must invest in robust research. We urgently need more modeling capability to identify which regions will be worst affected by the strengthening El Nino. This is particularly true for Australia, where a lack of understanding of how climate change on top of a strong El Nino will affect local conditions. This record-shattering El Nino is already compounding the destructive effects of climate change. But it may be just the catalyst we need to finally abandon fossil fuels and curb our world-warming emissions. --- The writer is a lecturer in climate science geography at The University of Melbourne. This article is republished under a Creative Commons license.