Alberta Voices — Donald Barry: As Alberta decides in referendum, what will Trump do?

In October, Albertans will be asked in a referendum whether they want the province to remain in Canada or move toward a second independence referendum. An independent Alberta would not only have to meet the requirements of statehood (people, territory, an effective government and the capacity to deal with states), but also be recognized by other countries, none of which is more important than the United States. Without recognition, an aspiring state would have no international standing. It could not engage in diplomacy, enter into international agreements or join international organizations. The Alberta referendum will be Canada's third, after those in Quebec in 1980 and 1995. Given the deep ties between Canada and the United States, it is not surprising that, in both cases, U.S. governments under presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton supported a united Canada. President Donald Trump, who has frequently talked of annexing this country, has not openly declared himself on Alberta's vote, though some around him have. Parti Québécois premier René Lévesque came to power in November 1976, pledging a referendum on Quebec independence. The possibility of a bifurcated Canada and an independent Quebec on his country's northern border concerned president Carter, who said Canada's stability 'is of crucial importance to us,' while noting it was for Canadians to decide. He declined to say whether his government would recognize an independent Quebec. In a speech to Congress in February 1977, prime minister Pierre Trudeau assured that 'Canada's unity will not be fractured.' Carter expressed confidence in the outcome. U.S. vice-president Walter Mondale reiterated the administration's support during a visit to Ottawa the following year. Lévesque told Americans that an independent Quebec would remain a reliable economic and security partner. But the Carter administration did not change its stance. The issue became moot in May 1980 when the province's voters rejected (60 to 40 per cent) the government's sovereignty-association referendum seeking to have Quebec become politically independent while maintaining economic ties to Canada. The independence issue remained on the back burner until September 1995, when another Parti Québécois premier, Jacques Parizeau, announced a referendum the following month on a vague plan to create a sovereign Quebec, after proposing new political and economic arrangements with Canada. The campaign began with the No side in a healthy lead. But it tightened dramatically after Lucien Bouchard, a charismatic federal politician, took over leadership of the pro-independence forces. With alarm bells ringing in Ottawa and Washington, U.S. secretary of state Warren Christopher, though observing that the referendum was an internal matter, emphasized 'the high value that we place on the relationships that we have with a strong and united Canada,' and that an independent Quebec should not expect to have the same connections — a reference to Parizeau's claim that it would automatically join the North American Free Trade Agreement. After president Jacques Chirac said France would recognize an independent Quebec, U.S. president Bill Clinton spoke out, declaring, 'Canada has been a great model for the rest of the world and has been a great partner for the United States, and I hope that can continue.' The administration was not prepared to recognize an independent Quebec in the wake of a successful vote. The federal side won a slim victory (50.6 to 49.4 per cent), putting the matter to rest, although a resurgent Parti Québécois has promised another independence referendum if it wins this fall's election. In May, Premier Danielle Smith said Albertans will go to the polls Oct. 19 in a referendum to decide whether the province should stay in Canada or initiate a legal process leading to a second binding referendum on separation. This followed rival pro and con citizen petitions circulating in the province. After appearing to hedge her bets, Smith says she will vote to remain, citing the responsiveness of Prime Minister Mark Carney's government to Alberta's concerns. Trump has yet to weigh in publicly, although he has repeatedly mused about making Canada the 51st state. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra says that would be 'a great discussion for the president and the prime minister to have.' Conservative commentator Brandon Weichert claims Trump means Alberta. The province, with its rich energy resources and Smith's MAGA-friendly policies, could be an attractive target. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls Alberta a 'natural partner' for the United States. 'People want sovereignty,' he says, 'They want what the U.S. has got.' Utah Senator Mike Lee adds, 'It might be like our own little frozen Texas of the North. They may even want to join us.' Although some 75 per cent of Albertans view Trump unfavourably, many separatists see his administration as a crucial ally. Alberta Prosperity Project leaders have met three times with State Department officials — who, they claim, have a direct line to the White House — to discuss separation, including a $500 billion line of credit to see Alberta through statehood. Hoekstra, after initially denying the meetings had taken place, brushed them aside as routine contacts and said no commitments had been made. Hoekstra said he has 'clear direction' not to intervene in the referendum debate. But it's 'the president's call.' Both Carney and Smith have said they expect the administration to respect Canada's sovereignty. Polls show the remain in Canada side with a large lead, which, assuming it holds, will ensure a significant win in the referendum. But whatever happens, neither past precedents nor Canadian admonitions are likely to sway Trump, who calls Canada 'a country that should be a U.S. state.' Donald Barry is a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Calgary.