Concern Over Trump's 'Big Show' to Escape Crisis

U.S. President Donald Trump's recent moves regarding North Korea are drawing attention, particularly his decision to drastically scale down the ROK-U.S. combined military exercise on the first day of the Ulchi-Freedom Shield (UFS) drill. Trump's interest in North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is not a recent development. During the last presidential campaign, Trump confidently claimed he would resolve the Ukraine war, Middle East issues, and the North Korean problem. However, the Ukraine war, which he promised to end within 24 hours, has dragged into a protracted conflict, and the Middle East issue, which he pledged to resolve permanently, has expanded into a war with Iran, plunging Trump into a political crisis. Now, the remaining issue is North Korea. Trump is a master of political reality shows where he plays the lead role. From his perspective, a meeting with Kim Jong-un might be the most suitable material to escape the quagmire of the Iran war. The North Korean issue has already been an international concern, and the three meetings between Trump and Kim in 2018–2019 drew global attention. Speculation is growing about a potential U.S.-North Korea summit during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Shenzhen in mid-November, including the possibility of Trump's surprise visit to Pyongyang. On September 1, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee that 'a summit between the U.S. and North Korea is possible at any time' and that 'there are signs of dialogue between the two sides.' The possibility of a Trump-led 'Korean Peninsula big show' this autumn cannot be ruled out. The concern is if the summit actually materializes. Trump has left a mysterious impression by specifying that North Korea has 57 nuclear weapons and has repeatedly referred to North Korea as a 'nuclear power.' While Trump has repeatedly expressed public interest in Kim Jong-un, he has avoided using the term 'North Korean denuclearization.' This raises worries about the resumption of U.S.-North Korea summit talks without denuclearization. During the series of inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits in 2018–2019, North Korea did not promise denuclearization. The agreements used the term 'Korean Peninsula denuclearization' instead of 'North Korean denuclearization.' The so-called 'voluntary moratorium' decided at the Workers' Party's 7th Central Committee's third plenary meeting on April 20, 2018, just before the April 27 inter-Korean Panmunjom summit, was a halt to development, not the dismantlement of nuclear weapons. If the U.S.-North Korea summit resumes, North Korea is likely to propose suspending the development of attack capabilities against the U.S. rather than dismantling nuclear weapons. In this scenario, Trump could claim the U.S. is safe, while North Korea might interpret it as recognition of its nuclear status. The Korean Peninsula would remain exposed to North Korean nuclear threats, while the U.S. would feel secure. Another issue is President Lee Jae Myung's mention of a Korean Peninsula armistice during his Liberation Day speech. Article 1 of the existing Armistice Agreement stipulates the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) and the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). Given that North Korea has officially adopted the two-Korean-states theory, there are concerns it might claim the MDL as an international border in a peace treaty. North Korea could also seek to formalize inter-Korean relations as state-to-state in a peace agreement. Both scenarios conflict with South Korea's constitution and are sensitive issues related to national identity. Trump's leadership prioritizes strict nationalism and transactional politics without distinguishing between friends and foes. Trump is pressuring South Korea by demanding troop deployments to the Iran war and sales of Cheongung-II missiles to Ukraine. These are double-edged swords for South Korea. Issues requiring consultation with the U.S., such as trade, wartime operational control transfer, nuclear-powered submarines, and reprocessing, are numerous. Regardless of personal preferences, the U.S. under Trump is a reality. In an era of global uncertainty driven by security and economic crises, the ROK-U.S. alliance remains essential for South Korea, and the Korean Peninsula is a key hub of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. Both nations still need each other, and the alliance remains valid. South Korea must maintain strategic clarity focused on national interest and wisely address inter-Korean and international issues beyond partisan divides.