‘Pakistan is imploding': Ex-diplomat on Balochistan, Indus Waters and Dhurandhar

British knew Jinnah was dying; India should not have signed Indus Waters Treaty; Tiger Memon was in Karachi three days after the 1993 Bombay blasts: Rajiv Dogra In an exclusive interview with Firstpost, Rajiv Dogra — former Ambassador to Italy, Romania, Moldova and Albania, and the last Indian Consul General in Karachi — speaks about Pakistan's never-ending crises, Britain's role in its creation and its support for Mohammed Ali Jinnah's Partition plan. He also explains why he believes the Narendra Modi government has rightly suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, recalls the violence he witnessed during his stay in Karachi, weighs in on Dhurandhar's depiction of Pakistani society, and argues that Islamabad-Rawalpindi is fast losing its grip on Balochistan. The following is the second and final part of edited excerpts from the interview: Advertisement Q: There is a common thread running through almost all your books, from Where Borders Bleed to How Nations Fail. In all your books, you examine diplomacy and geostrategy through historical and civilisational prisms, while also seeking to develop a distinctly Indian perspective. Why? A: When I started researching my first book, Where Borders Bleed, I found that much of our knowledge and interpretation of history, at least in books, had been shaped by British authors. With some exceptions, many Indian historians also followed the British way of looking at history. Lord Mountbatten, for instance, is famously reported to have said that he did not know Mohammed Ali Jinnah was dying and that, had he known, he would have delayed the announcement of Partition. I found that difficult to accept. Even photographs of Jinnah from the 1930s onwards showed that he was becoming increasingly ill. There was enough other evidence. When he was travelling from Bombay to Lahore for the Lahore Resolution, for example, he had to be taken off the train for medical treatment. He was that ill. More from Opinion More from Opinion Jinnah had also spent seven years in London, where he consulted doctors. It was not just the two Parsi doctors in Bombay; several doctors knew about his illness. At the time, British intelligence was regarded as the best in the world. It is difficult to imagine that the health of someone as important as Jinnah would not have been known to the British. More strikingly, Lord Wavell, Mountbatten's predecessor, wrote in his handover note that Jinnah was ill, suffering from tuberculosis and could die at any moment. The British had also decided on Partition soon after the Second World War. I brought these facts out in Where Borders Bleed. For me, there was immense satisfaction in moving away from the British interpretation of history. Advertisement The second major change I tried to bring to Foreign Service writing was to move away from memoirs. Most officers before me wrote about their own experiences. In none of my books is there an 'I' factor. There are many things I could say about what I have done for India, but I decided my books should not be about me. They should be about my country and its history, and that history should be shared with my fellow citizens. That is why almost every book of mine begins at the very beginning. My latest book, How Nations Fail, too, starts with the beginnings of civilisation. When societies and civilisations emerged, they went through periods of rise and decline. Remarkably, those cycles have followed similar patterns. What happened to the Indus Valley Civilisation, for example, was linked to shifts in the river system, which forced people to migrate to areas where agriculture was possible. That also contains a lesson for the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. Today, we must be very careful. If Pakistan gets its way and India is unable to derive the full benefit of its own waters, there will be serious consequences. In 1960, when the Indus Waters Treaty was signed, Jammu and Kashmir had nearly 700 lakes — 697, to be precise. Seventy-seven per cent of them have either shrunk dramatically or disappeared. We should learn from the Indus civilisation and recognise the considerable damage that, in my view, has already been caused by a flawed Indus Waters Treaty. That is why lessons from the past are so important in understanding the present. Advertisement There is also a common theme in the decline of nations: nations begin to decline when their people lose faith in them. Wars and a bad economy matter, but the most important factor is the mindset of the people. If people lose confidence in their nation's ability to progress, decline begins. Ultimately, it is the will and ambition of a people — and their leaders — that drive a nation. Q: Since you mentioned India's water security, how should New Delhi approach the issue now? Water is crucial for India, but it is also critical for Pakistan. A: We have to understand that Pakistan has been spoiled immensely because much of the Indus water flowing through the country is wasted. Nearly 30 to 40 per cent flows into the ocean, whereas India has suffered all along. But the important question is what India should do now. I hope India does not simply say that the Indus Waters Treaty is in abeyance and assume that is the end of the matter. Pakistan is already in overdrive on the issue, just as it was over Kashmir in 1947. At the time, we hoped our moral position — including going to the UN — would convince the world that we were right and that Pakistan should be driven out of Jammu and Kashmir. That did not happen because the world does not operate purely on morality. It operates on pragmatism. Pakistan is now repeating history. It is going around the world saying, 'India is depriving us of water.' India must put forward its case and explain the circumstances surrounding a treaty that was imposed on it. There is no other example in the world where a treaty between two sovereign nations was effectively imposed through the intervention of a bank. There should be no role for a bank between two sovereign nations. That happened because the Americans wanted it that way. They did not want a direct role, but they were pulling the strings. Jawaharlal Nehru was in a difficult position because of India's economic circumstances at the time. He also believed the treaty might make Pakistan recognise the value of cooperation. But that proved disastrous. We have paid for it through water scarcity in places such as Jammu and Srinagar. Wular Lake has also shrunk, directly affecting the ecology, tourism and production in the area. Our agricultural and industrial objectives have suffered. Second, there is no treaty in the world that cannot be revised. Turkey, for example, decided it needed to build more dams and overturned long-standing arrangements with Iraq and Syria. The Euphrates and Tigris no longer flowed into those countries at their previous levels because Turkey was storing water and building dams. In 1960, when the Indus Waters Treaty was being imposed on India, America had also decided that Mexico would not receive its full share of water. We live in a transactional world, and India must be firm about its needs and necessities. We must seriously consider abrogating this treaty, which I believe was unfairly imposed on India. Q: In an earlier conversation with me, you spoke about Dawood Ibrahim. There are reports that he is extremely unwell. The film, Dhurandhar, too, has a scene suggesting that he was poisoned by Indian intelligence. What do you make of that? A: That might be the case. I do not know whether he was poisoned. But Dhurandhar is 100 per cent correct in its portrayal of the wild and gruesome nature of Pakistani society. Q: You were in Karachi during a period of intense violence and criminal activity. What did you witness? A: I was there between 1992 and 1994. Muhajirs, Baloch and Pathans were involved in running battles all the time. There were struggles over control of resources, drugs and other criminal activities. Three days after the 1993 Bombay blasts, I was invited to a dinner in Karachi, where I was posted then. The moment I entered the house, I saw large bombs and other things lying around. I had entered from the wrong side, naturally. Then I saw a man sitting in the garden with a couple of Pakistanis. Later I was told he was Tiger Memon. The moment I saw him, he was quickly taken inside. That was the kind of society we were dealing with. Rajiv Dogra, former Ambassador to Italy, Romania, Moldova and Albania, and the last Indian Consul General in Karachi, Pakistan, has just written a book, 'How Nations Fail and the Unmaking of America's World'. (Photo by Ram Dogra) Q: How do you see the situation in Balochistan? Has it spiralled beyond Islamabad's control, or can Pakistan still contain it? A: It has spiralled out of control for the Pakistani authorities in Balochistan. They essentially control only the urban areas. Even there, the situation is difficult. The problem for the BLA and other groups is numbers. Balochistan has also seen significant Punjabi settlement. The original Baloch population is relatively small compared with the province's overall population. Geographically, it is Pakistan's largest province. Whether the insurgents can sustain their campaign depends on recruitment and the support they receive. If the TTP and BLA become aggressive simultaneously, the difficulties for the Pakistan Army will multiply. The TTP, however, is not as consistent as the BLA in targeting the Pakistan Army. Q: Amid these crises, the improvement in Pakistan-US ties has come as a major relief for Islamabad. Donald Trump appears to have developed a strange rapport with Pakistan's Field Marshal. How do you view this renewed warmth? A: Pakistan has a long history of using the Americans and manipulating the relationship. It has repeatedly managed to squeeze the US. It is not as though the Americans are unaware of how dangerously complex and devious Pakistan can be. There have always been determined Americans who understood the problem very well. Bruce Riedel, for example, advised several American presidents, including Bill Clinton and George W Bush, and he explained in detail why Pakistan should not be trusted. I quote an interesting anecdote in one of my books. Clinton was once asked what kept him awake at night. His answer was: 'Pakistan.' So, the Americans know what they are dealing with. And yet they falter. Circumstances sometimes intervene. As for Trump, he was shown the prospect of billions of dollars, and he bought it. And when it comes to things such as cryptocurrency, one wonders who in Pakistan has the money to buy it. It would have to be wealthy actors from countries such as Saudi Arabia or Qatar, or perhaps smugglers and drug dealers. But then Trump can do such things without shocking anyone. (Click here for Part 1 of the interview) (Utpal Kumar is the author of 'Bharat Rising: Dharma, Democracy, Diplomacy' and 'Eminent Distorians: Twists and Truths in Bharat's History'. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of former diplomat Rajiv Dogra. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.)